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Newton vs West Rusk


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  1. 1. Who wins?



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I predicted last week that West Rusk would win over Buffalo, but I thought it would be a much closer game.  I predicted 28-21, and 35-0 was the final.  I had a range of possibilities based on each team's best and worst games, and as it turns out, West Rusk (by my metric) played their best game of the season while Buffalo played their worst.  This was outside of even my huge range of possibilities.  That's high school football for ya, and that's why I love it, and that's why it's silly to guarantee anything in this game.  I didn't predict last week's Newton game, but they impressed again.  It wasn't even as close as the 65-11 beating of Rice.  I think West Rusk is going to have to put together another best game to be able to beat this Newton team, but they proved to me last week that they certainly have their next best game in them.  I'll be hoping they do it again, but on to the numbers on this one.

Taking the whole season into account, if each team plays their average game, I have Newton winning this one 37-19.  The Newton offense vs the West Rusk defense is an interesting matchup, but that Newton defense is holding opponents to the exact same ppg as West Rusk is (7.9 ppg).  I think this combined with the Newton offense makes me think Newton will take this one by a couple of scores or more.  Newton has certainly never played a defense like West Rusk this year, but West Rusk hasn't played a defense like Newton's either - or an offense like Newton's.  

If West Rusk equals their best game of the year (which was again, just last week) while Newton equals their worst, West Rusk wins it 20-6.  If we get an equal to Newton's best vs West Rusk equaling their worst, Newton wins it 76-5.  That's the range of "possibilities" for this one (and the WR/Buffalo game fell outside this range last week, so grain of salt!).

Considering only district games, Newton takes it 42-14.  If each team plays like they have been in the playoffs, Newton wins 36-19.  Against offenses who average 30 or more per game, I get Newton winning 35-17.  Against teams who give up fewer than 21 points per game (each team has only played one game that fits this criteria, so tiny sample size), I get Newton on top in a tight one, 31-28.  

Common opponents include Arp and Corrigan-Camden.  Newton beat Arp 58-0 while West Rusk beat them 24-0.  By my metric, West Rusk played their second to worst game of the year against Arp while Newton played their median game (they played 5 games better than this one, and 5 games worse than this one), so pretty much an average game for Newton.  West Rusk beat Corrigan-Camden 42-7 while Newton beat them 52-0.  West Rusk played a slightly below average game against them while Newton played a slightly above average game against them.  Again, the "quality" of the games is my own metric.

My final prediction on this one is going to be Newton, 35-20.

I'll be rooting for West Rusk for the upset though.  They can win it.  If West Rusk equals their performance against Buffalo last week and Newton plays their average game, I get a dead lock, 21-21, and I also think this game could be close just because of the elite defenses on both sides.  Wish I could see this game.  I believe these are the best two teams in the region and one of them won't be playing in the regional final next week.  That's a shame. 


 

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5 minutes ago, Nick2011 said:

Thanks pax appreciate you taking your time to do this! 

No problem.  I appreciate the interest.  It' fun to do.  I got pretty close on most of the games in round 1, but missed badly on a couple in round 2.  Good luck!

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Not that anyone asked, but I'd like to explain how my system works for those interested, and why the numbers can be misleading for a team like Newton - and why this game could be a blowout (in Newton's favor).  I apologize for how cumbersome this is going to be!  Sorry if it bores you to tears.

I have a metric I call "swing".  This is a measure of how much a team takes an opponent away from their norm.  It's a way for me to take strength of schedule into account.  It's all based on points scored and points allowed.  The swing can be positive or negative.  Each game gets a swing number.  Suppose a Newton opponent averages 30 ppg and allows 20 ppg, and Newton beats them 42-0.  In that game, Newton beat an opponent by 42 who is used to winning by 10, so the swing for Newton on that game is 52 points.  Newton forced a 52-point swing away from what that team is used to.  When calculating the swing, I don't include the actual game between the two teams because that can skew the numbers.  For example, I don't want to include how many points Newton scored on a team in their "points allowed" category because I want to know how much Newton took them away from what they normally allow when they aren't playing Newton.  This is how strength of schedule comes into play.  If Newton beats a team by 40 that is used to losing by 30 already, Newton's swing is only +10 for that game.  If Newton were to beat a team by 30 that is used to losing by 40, their swing would be -10 for that game.

Anyway, Newton's average swing for the season is +49.6.  Newton's worst swing game of the season is +20.9 and this was in a 47-0 thumping of Frankston.  In all other games (not including the game against Newton), Frankston scored 12.9 ppg and allowed 31.8 ppg.  They were used to losing by an average of 26.1 ppg.  Newton only beat them by 47, so they "swung" Frankston out of their usual game by 20.9 points.  The problem is - this is Newton's WORST game.  I can't find a box score on this game, but it wouldn't shock me to learn that it was 47-0 at halftime against a far inferior team, and Newton just didn't want it to get ugly.  When a REALLY good team plays a REALLY bad team, the swing number attached can be misleading.  Frankston was already used to losing by 26.1.  Newton would have to beat them by 75 and run it up to hit their average swing, and they might be a bit more sportsmanship-conscious than that, so those swing games that are bringing down Newton's average could be misleading.  I think it is a flaw in my system - particularly for teams like Newton that are just destroying people.

Anyway, considering all games played, West Rusk's average swing is +32.3.  Newton has an average margin of victory of 48.6.  If you subtract what West Rusk does to take teams out of their norm, that Newton average margin of victory comes down to 16.3. 

On the flip side, Newton's average swing is +49.6.  West Rusk has an average margin of victory of 31.0.  If you subtract Newton's swing, you wipe out the 31 and have an additional 18.6 in Newton's favor.  When you average these two together (16.3 and 18.6 - both in Newton's favor), you get Newton favored by 17.5 (rounded up to 18) which is partially where the 37-19 score comes from.

The actual scores come from the same stats, just broken down by offense and defense.  West rusk scores 38.9 ppg against defenses give up 27 ppg on average.  So, on average, West Rusk is scoring 12 points more than the defenses they play give up on average (and again, I don't include games AGAINST West Rusk in these numbers because I want to know what those teams give up when they DONT play West Rusk to know how much WR is taking them out of their game).  Newton gives up an average of 7.9 ppg.  West Rusk scores 12 more than what defenses give up, for a total of 19.9 points (rounded to 20).  West Rusk also holds opponents who average 28.3 ppg to 7.9 ppg, so they are holding offenses to 20.4 fewer points than what they otherwise average.  Newton averages 56.5 ppg, so if WR holds opponents to 20.4 fewer, you get 36.1 (round to 36).  This is West Rusk's end.  If West Rusk does what they normally do to teams, I get a score of Newton 36. West Rusk 20.

I do the same thing with Newton.  Newton scores 56.5 ppg against teams that otherwise give up 27.3, so Newton is scoring 29.2 more points than the defenses they play normally allow.  West Rusk allows 7.9 ppg.  If Newton does what they normally do and scores 29.2 more points than that, it comes to 37.1 (rounded to 37).  Newton gives up 7.9 ppg to teams that otherwise average 28.3 ppg, so they are holding teams to 20.4 fewer points than they normally score (coincidentally, the exact same as West Rusk).  West Rusk scores 38.9 ppg, so if Newton holds them to 20.4 fewer, that's 18.5 (rounded to 19).  So, if Newton does what they normally do to other teams, I get a score of Newton 37, West Rusk, 19.

I usually average these two scores together, but they are already almost identical.  In both scenarios, one where Newton has their way, and the other where West Rusk has their way, the scores are pretty much identical.  This makes me confident in the prediction - 37-19 (which is the overall average). 

I do the exact same thing, just only considering certain games.  I filter it by district only games, playoff only, games against good offenses, good defenses, etc, but the process is the same for all of them when coming to a prediction.

BUT - a lot of Newton's swing numbers are based on games where they have far below average swing numbers, but in games that are just blowouts, so Newton would have better swing numbers if their competition was better, and since my predictions are based on those swing numbers, I might be missing a potential Newton blowout.  I still hope it's closer to what I predicted.

Sorry if this bored you! 

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23 minutes ago, Pax said:

Not that anyone asked, but I'd like to explain how my system works for those interested, and why the numbers can be misleading for a team like Newton - and why this game could be a blowout (in Newton's favor).  I apologize for how cumbersome this is going to be!  Sorry if it bores you to tears.

I have a metric I call "swing".  This is a measure of how much a team takes an opponent away from their norm.  It's a way for me to take strength of schedule into account.  It's all based on points scored and points allowed.  The swing can be positive or negative.  Each game gets a swing number.  Suppose a Newton opponent averages 30 ppg and allows 20 ppg, and Newton beats them 42-0.  In that game, Newton beat an opponent by 42 who is used to winning by 10, so the swing for Newton on that game is 52 points.  Newton forced a 52-point swing away from what that team is used to.  When calculating the swing, I don't include the actual game between the two teams because that can skew the numbers.  For example, I don't want to include how many points Newton scored on a team in their "points allowed" category because I want to know how much Newton took them away from what they normally allow when they aren't playing Newton.  This is how strength of schedule comes into play.  If Newton beats a team by 40 that is used to losing by 30 already, Newton's swing is only +10 for that game.  If Newton were to beat a team by 30 that is used to losing by 40, their swing would be -10 for that game.

Anyway, Newton's average swing for the season is +49.6.  Newton's worst swing game of the season is +20.9 and this was in a 47-0 thumping of Frankston.  In all other games (not including the game against Newton), Frankston scored 12.9 ppg and allowed 31.8 ppg.  They were used to losing by an average of 26.1 ppg.  Newton only beat them by 47, so they "swung" Frankston out of their usual game by 20.9 points.  The problem is - this is Newton's WORST game.  I can't find a box score on this game, but it wouldn't shock me to learn that it was 47-0 at halftime against a far inferior team, and Newton just didn't want it to get ugly.  When a REALLY good team plays a REALLY bad team, the swing number attached can be misleading.  Frankston was already used to losing by 26.1.  Newton would have to beat them by 75 and run it up to hit their average swing, and they might be a bit more sportsmanship-conscious than that, so those swing games that are bringing down Newton's average could be misleading.  I think it is a flaw in my system - particularly for teams like Newton that are just destroying people.

Anyway, considering all games played, West Rusk's average swing is +32.3.  Newton has an average margin of victory of 48.6.  If you subtract what West Rusk does to take teams out of their norm, that Newton average margin of victory comes down to 16.3. 

On the flip side, Newton's average swing is +49.6.  West Rusk has an average margin of victory of 31.0.  If you subtract Newton's swing, you wipe out the 31 and have an additional 18.6 in Newton's favor.  When you average these two together (16.3 and 18.6 - both in Newton's favor), you get Newton favored by 17.5 (rounded up to 18) which is partially where the 37-19 score comes from.

The actual scores come from the same stats, just broken down by offense and defense.  West rusk scores 38.9 ppg against defenses give up 27 ppg on average.  So, on average, West Rusk is scoring 12 points more than the defenses they play give up on average (and again, I don't include games AGAINST West Rusk in these numbers because I want to know what those teams give up when they DONT play West Rusk to know how much WR is taking them out of their game).  Newton gives up an average of 7.9 ppg.  West Rusk scores 12 more than what defenses give up, for a total of 19.9 points (rounded to 20).  West Rusk also holds opponents who average 28.3 ppg to 7.9 ppg, so they are holding offenses to 20.4 fewer points than what they otherwise average.  Newton averages 56.5 ppg, so if WR holds opponents to 20.4 fewer, you get 36.1 (round to 36).  This is West Rusk's end.  If West Rusk does what they normally do to teams, I get a score of Newton 36. West Rusk 20.

I do the same thing with Newton.  Newton scores 56.5 ppg against teams that otherwise give up 27.3, so Newton is scoring 29.2 more points than the defenses they play normally allow.  West Rusk allows 7.9 ppg.  If Newton does what they normally do and scores 29.2 more points than that, it comes to 37.1 (rounded to 37).  Newton gives up 7.9 ppg to teams that otherwise average 28.3 ppg, so they are holding teams to 20.4 fewer points than they normally score (coincidentally, the exact same as West Rusk).  West Rusk scores 38.9 ppg, so if Newton holds them to 20.4 fewer, that's 18.5 (rounded to 19).  So, if Newton does what they normally do to other teams, I get a score of Newton 37, West Rusk, 19.

I usually average these two scores together, but they are already almost identical.  In both scenarios, one where Newton has their way, and the other where West Rusk has their way, the scores are pretty much identical.  This makes me confident in the prediction - 37-19 (which is the overall average). 

I do the exact same thing, just only considering certain games.  I filter it by district only games, playoff only, games against good offenses, good defenses, etc, but the process is the same for all of them when coming to a prediction.

BUT - a lot of Newton's swing numbers are based on games where they have far below average swing numbers, but in games that are just blowouts, so Newton would have better swing numbers if their competition was better, and since my predictions are based on those swing numbers, I might be missing a potential Newton blowout.  I still hope it's closer to what I predicted.

Sorry if this bored you! 

Pax, I appreciate your analysis of all the games. 

 

If you get time, can you jump over to the New Diana vs Jacksboro thread and run the numbers and analyze that game? 

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Just now, TTman7 said:

Pax, I appreciate your analysis of all the game. 

 

If you get time, can you jump over to the New Diana vs Jacksboro thread and run the numbers and analyze that game? 

I will do that, but you should be aware that the Jacksboro/Harmony game was one of the worst calls I've made!!  I believe I had Harmony winning that one 35-14.

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2 hours ago, Pax said:

Not that anyone asked, but I'd like to explain how my system works for those interested, and why the numbers can be misleading for a team like Newton - and why this game could be a blowout (in Newton's favor).  I apologize for how cumbersome this is going to be!  Sorry if it bores you to tears.

I have a metric I call "swing".  This is a measure of how much a team takes an opponent away from their norm.  It's a way for me to take strength of schedule into account.  It's all based on points scored and points allowed.  The swing can be positive or negative.  Each game gets a swing number.  Suppose a Newton opponent averages 30 ppg and allows 20 ppg, and Newton beats them 42-0.  In that game, Newton beat an opponent by 42 who is used to winning by 10, so the swing for Newton on that game is 52 points.  Newton forced a 52-point swing away from what that team is used to.  When calculating the swing, I don't include the actual game between the two teams because that can skew the numbers.  For example, I don't want to include how many points Newton scored on a team in their "points allowed" category because I want to know how much Newton took them away from what they normally allow when they aren't playing Newton.  This is how strength of schedule comes into play.  If Newton beats a team by 40 that is used to losing by 30 already, Newton's swing is only +10 for that game.  If Newton were to beat a team by 30 that is used to losing by 40, their swing would be -10 for that game.

Anyway, Newton's average swing for the season is +49.6.  Newton's worst swing game of the season is +20.9 and this was in a 47-0 thumping of Frankston.  In all other games (not including the game against Newton), Frankston scored 12.9 ppg and allowed 31.8 ppg.  They were used to losing by an average of 26.1 ppg.  Newton only beat them by 47, so they "swung" Frankston out of their usual game by 20.9 points.  The problem is - this is Newton's WORST game.  I can't find a box score on this game, but it wouldn't shock me to learn that it was 47-0 at halftime against a far inferior team, and Newton just didn't want it to get ugly.  When a REALLY good team plays a REALLY bad team, the swing number attached can be misleading.  Frankston was already used to losing by 26.1.  Newton would have to beat them by 75 and run it up to hit their average swing, and they might be a bit more sportsmanship-conscious than that, so those swing games that are bringing down Newton's average could be misleading.  I think it is a flaw in my system - particularly for teams like Newton that are just destroying people.

Anyway, considering all games played, West Rusk's average swing is +32.3.  Newton has an average margin of victory of 48.6.  If you subtract what West Rusk does to take teams out of their norm, that Newton average margin of victory comes down to 16.3. 

On the flip side, Newton's average swing is +49.6.  West Rusk has an average margin of victory of 31.0.  If you subtract Newton's swing, you wipe out the 31 and have an additional 18.6 in Newton's favor.  When you average these two together (16.3 and 18.6 - both in Newton's favor), you get Newton favored by 17.5 (rounded up to 18) which is partially where the 37-19 score comes from.

The actual scores come from the same stats, just broken down by offense and defense.  West rusk scores 38.9 ppg against defenses give up 27 ppg on average.  So, on average, West Rusk is scoring 12 points more than the defenses they play give up on average (and again, I don't include games AGAINST West Rusk in these numbers because I want to know what those teams give up when they DONT play West Rusk to know how much WR is taking them out of their game).  Newton gives up an average of 7.9 ppg.  West Rusk scores 12 more than what defenses give up, for a total of 19.9 points (rounded to 20).  West Rusk also holds opponents who average 28.3 ppg to 7.9 ppg, so they are holding offenses to 20.4 fewer points than what they otherwise average.  Newton averages 56.5 ppg, so if WR holds opponents to 20.4 fewer, you get 36.1 (round to 36).  This is West Rusk's end.  If West Rusk does what they normally do to teams, I get a score of Newton 36. West Rusk 20.

I do the same thing with Newton.  Newton scores 56.5 ppg against teams that otherwise give up 27.3, so Newton is scoring 29.2 more points than the defenses they play normally allow.  West Rusk allows 7.9 ppg.  If Newton does what they normally do and scores 29.2 more points than that, it comes to 37.1 (rounded to 37).  Newton gives up 7.9 ppg to teams that otherwise average 28.3 ppg, so they are holding teams to 20.4 fewer points than they normally score (coincidentally, the exact same as West Rusk).  West Rusk scores 38.9 ppg, so if Newton holds them to 20.4 fewer, that's 18.5 (rounded to 19).  So, if Newton does what they normally do to other teams, I get a score of Newton 37, West Rusk, 19.

I usually average these two scores together, but they are already almost identical.  In both scenarios, one where Newton has their way, and the other where West Rusk has their way, the scores are pretty much identical.  This makes me confident in the prediction - 37-19 (which is the overall average). 

I do the exact same thing, just only considering certain games.  I filter it by district only games, playoff only, games against good offenses, good defenses, etc, but the process is the same for all of them when coming to a prediction.

BUT - a lot of Newton's swing numbers are based on games where they have far below average swing numbers, but in games that are just blowouts, so Newton would have better swing numbers if their competition was better, and since my predictions are based on those swing numbers, I might be missing a potential Newton blowout.  I still hope it's closer to what I predicted.

Sorry if this bored you! 

Pax, this was an impressive read! A job well done, Sir. I think you would have hit the nail on the head if you left it as a Newton blowout. 

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2 hours ago, Pax said:

Not that anyone asked, but I'd like to explain how my system works for those interested, and why the numbers can be misleading for a team like Newton - and why this game could be a blowout (in Newton's favor).  I apologize for how cumbersome this is going to be!  Sorry if it bores you to tears.

I have a metric I call "swing".  This is a measure of how much a team takes an opponent away from their norm.  It's a way for me to take strength of schedule into account.  It's all based on points scored and points allowed.  The swing can be positive or negative.  Each game gets a swing number.  Suppose a Newton opponent averages 30 ppg and allows 20 ppg, and Newton beats them 42-0.  In that game, Newton beat an opponent by 42 who is used to winning by 10, so the swing for Newton on that game is 52 points.  Newton forced a 52-point swing away from what that team is used to.  When calculating the swing, I don't include the actual game between the two teams because that can skew the numbers.  For example, I don't want to include how many points Newton scored on a team in their "points allowed" category because I want to know how much Newton took them away from what they normally allow when they aren't playing Newton.  This is how strength of schedule comes into play.  If Newton beats a team by 40 that is used to losing by 30 already, Newton's swing is only +10 for that game.  If Newton were to beat a team by 30 that is used to losing by 40, their swing would be -10 for that game.

Anyway, Newton's average swing for the season is +49.6.  Newton's worst swing game of the season is +20.9 and this was in a 47-0 thumping of Frankston.  In all other games (not including the game against Newton), Frankston scored 12.9 ppg and allowed 31.8 ppg.  They were used to losing by an average of 26.1 ppg.  Newton only beat them by 47, so they "swung" Frankston out of their usual game by 20.9 points.  The problem is - this is Newton's WORST game.  I can't find a box score on this game, but it wouldn't shock me to learn that it was 47-0 at halftime against a far inferior team, and Newton just didn't want it to get ugly.  When a REALLY good team plays a REALLY bad team, the swing number attached can be misleading.  Frankston was already used to losing by 26.1.  Newton would have to beat them by 75 and run it up to hit their average swing, and they might be a bit more sportsmanship-conscious than that, so those swing games that are bringing down Newton's average could be misleading.  I think it is a flaw in my system - particularly for teams like Newton that are just destroying people.

Anyway, considering all games played, West Rusk's average swing is +32.3.  Newton has an average margin of victory of 48.6.  If you subtract what West Rusk does to take teams out of their norm, that Newton average margin of victory comes down to 16.3. 

On the flip side, Newton's average swing is +49.6.  West Rusk has an average margin of victory of 31.0.  If you subtract Newton's swing, you wipe out the 31 and have an additional 18.6 in Newton's favor.  When you average these two together (16.3 and 18.6 - both in Newton's favor), you get Newton favored by 17.5 (rounded up to 18) which is partially where the 37-19 score comes from.

The actual scores come from the same stats, just broken down by offense and defense.  West rusk scores 38.9 ppg against defenses give up 27 ppg on average.  So, on average, West Rusk is scoring 12 points more than the defenses they play give up on average (and again, I don't include games AGAINST West Rusk in these numbers because I want to know what those teams give up when they DONT play West Rusk to know how much WR is taking them out of their game).  Newton gives up an average of 7.9 ppg.  West Rusk scores 12 more than what defenses give up, for a total of 19.9 points (rounded to 20).  West Rusk also holds opponents who average 28.3 ppg to 7.9 ppg, so they are holding offenses to 20.4 fewer points than what they otherwise average.  Newton averages 56.5 ppg, so if WR holds opponents to 20.4 fewer, you get 36.1 (round to 36).  This is West Rusk's end.  If West Rusk does what they normally do to teams, I get a score of Newton 36. West Rusk 20.

I do the same thing with Newton.  Newton scores 56.5 ppg against teams that otherwise give up 27.3, so Newton is scoring 29.2 more points than the defenses they play normally allow.  West Rusk allows 7.9 ppg.  If Newton does what they normally do and scores 29.2 more points than that, it comes to 37.1 (rounded to 37).  Newton gives up 7.9 ppg to teams that otherwise average 28.3 ppg, so they are holding teams to 20.4 fewer points than they normally score (coincidentally, the exact same as West Rusk).  West Rusk scores 38.9 ppg, so if Newton holds them to 20.4 fewer, that's 18.5 (rounded to 19).  So, if Newton does what they normally do to other teams, I get a score of Newton 37, West Rusk, 19.

I usually average these two scores together, but they are already almost identical.  In both scenarios, one where Newton has their way, and the other where West Rusk has their way, the scores are pretty much identical.  This makes me confident in the prediction - 37-19 (which is the overall average). 

I do the exact same thing, just only considering certain games.  I filter it by district only games, playoff only, games against good offenses, good defenses, etc, but the process is the same for all of them when coming to a prediction.

BUT - a lot of Newton's swing numbers are based on games where they have far below average swing numbers, but in games that are just blowouts, so Newton would have better swing numbers if their competition was better, and since my predictions are based on those swing numbers, I might be missing a potential Newton blowout.  I still hope it's closer to what I predicted.

Sorry if this bored you! 

#respect

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58 minutes ago, BiggieSmalls said:

Pax, this was an impressive read! A job well done, Sir. I think you would have hit the nail on the head if you left it as a Newton blowout. 

As many times as y'all have had loaded teams knocked out of the playoffs prematurely you'd figure y'all would be a lil humbled by now. But nah, still here jackin them jaws about blowing out a team ranked merely 4 spots behind y'all. And by all accounts, it's very possible that y'all could....but sheesh drink a lil more purple Kool-Aid will ya?

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2 minutes ago, Eagle8 said:

As many times as y'all have had loaded teams knocked out of the playoffs prematurely you'd figure y'all would be a lil humbled by now. But nah, still here jackin them jaws about blowing out a team ranked merely 4 spots behind y'all. And by all accounts, it's very possible that y'all could....but sheesh drink a lil more purple Kool-Aid will ya?

Haha.

Calm down there, Eagle8. I have given West Rusk their recognition on a great year and have stated that they are a good team. I am just stirring the pot with West Rusk. But, do i believe that Newton will win by several touchdowns? Yes, it will probably happen. Sorry to get you worked up, man. I guess Nick took my comment better than you did. lol

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59 minutes ago, BiggieSmalls said:

Haha.

Calm down there, Eagle8. I have given West Rusk their recognition on a great year and have stated that they are a good team. I am just stirring the pot with West Rusk. But, do i believe that Newton will win by several touchdowns? Yes, it will probably happen. Sorry to get you worked up, man. I guess Nick took my comment better than you did. lol

Lol, me? Worked up? Nah.....just stirrin the pot up a bit.

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5 hours ago, Pax said:

I predicted last week that West Rusk would win over Buffalo, but I thought it would be a much closer game.  I predicted 28-21, and 35-0 was the final.  I had a range of possibilities based on each team's best and worst games, and as it turns out, West Rusk (by my metric) played their best game of the season while Buffalo played their worst.  This was outside of even my huge range of possibilities.  That's high school football for ya, and that's why I love it, and that's why it's silly to guarantee anything in this game.  I didn't predict last week's Newton game, but they impressed again.  It wasn't even as close as the 65-11 beating of Rice.  I think West Rusk is going to have to put together another best game to be able to beat this Newton team, but they proved to me last week that they certainly have their next best game in them.  I'll be hoping they do it again, but on to the numbers on this one.

Taking the whole season into account, if each team plays their average game, I have Newton winning this one 37-19.  The Newton offense vs the West Rusk defense is an interesting matchup, but that Newton defense is holding opponents to the exact same ppg as West Rusk is (7.9 ppg).  I think this combined with the Newton offense makes me think Newton will take this one by a couple of scores or more.  Newton has certainly never played a defense like West Rusk this year, but West Rusk hasn't played a defense like Newton's either - or an offense like Newton's.  

If West Rusk equals their best game of the year (which was again, just last week) while Newton equals their worst, West Rusk wins it 20-6.  If we get an equal to Newton's best vs West Rusk equaling their worst, Newton wins it 76-5.  That's the range of "possibilities" for this one (and the WR/Buffalo game fell outside this range last week, so grain of salt!).

Considering only district games, Newton takes it 42-14.  If each team plays like they have been in the playoffs, Newton wins 36-19.  Against offenses who average 30 or more per game, I get Newton winning 35-17.  Against teams who give up fewer than 21 points per game (each team has only played one game that fits this criteria, so tiny sample size), I get Newton on top in a tight one, 31-28.  

Common opponents include Arp and Corrigan-Camden.  Newton beat Arp 58-0 while West Rusk beat them 24-0.  By my metric, West Rusk played their second to worst game of the year against Arp while Newton played their median game (they played 5 games better than this one, and 5 games worse than this one), so pretty much an average game for Newton.  West Rusk beat Corrigan-Camden 42-7 while Newton beat them 52-0.  West Rusk played a slightly below average game against them while Newton played a slightly above average game against them.  Again, the "quality" of the games is my own metric.

My final prediction on this one is going to be Newton, 35-20.

I'll be rooting for West Rusk for the upset though.  They can win it.  If West Rusk equals their performance against Buffalo last week and Newton plays their average game, I get a dead lock, 21-21, and I also think this game could be close just because of the elite defenses on both sides.  Wish I could see this game.  I believe these are the best two teams in the region and one of them won't be playing in the regional final next week.  That's a shame. 


 

At least half of your statement is correct, WR hasn't faced an offense like Newton's, but I'm not so sure some of the 4A schools Newton has played didn't have an equal or better defense than WR, especially Silsbee.  Barring multiple turnovers creating short field situations, I don't think there is any way WR will score 20 points on Newton's defense, they might not score at all.  I don't see WR's defense holding Newton's offense much under 50, if that low.   My prediction for the game .... Newton 52 WR 7 ...

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