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New Diana 49 Jacksboro 48...Final


HTaylor

Who you got?  

59 members have voted

  1. 1. Who you got?

    • New Diana
      37
    • Jacksboro
      22


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8 minutes ago, TTman7 said:

Thanks Pax. Incredible in your analysis and very well appreciated by all.

I'm a ND fan so I hope you're wrong, lol. 

I've been wrong before!  I wouldnt be surprised if im wrong on this one because I don't take into account specific matchups like how teams do against the run vs the pass and other things like that.  If there was ever a matchup unknown for me, it's Jacksboro against the pass.

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Leonard 

2 hours ago, Pax said:

Last week, I predicted Harmony would beat Jacksboro 35-14.  I got it very wrong.  By my metric, Jacksboro played their best game against Harmony and Harmony played their worst game.  More accurately, either Jacksboro played their best game of the season - forcing Harmony into their worst, or vice versa.  It's hard to say.  In either case, Jacksboro did something they hadn't done all year in that game, and that is score.  Specifically, score considerably more points than the defense they are facing normally allows.  Coming into that game, Jacksboro had averaged 35.5 ppg, but against defenses that were normally allowing 29.5 ppg.  They weren't taking much more from defenses than they normally give.  This obviously changed in the Harmony game where Jacksboro put up 42 on a defense that gives up 8.3 ppg - and hearing about this game, it doesn't appear that there were a bunch of turnovers or fluke scores.  Jacksboro outright, fair and square, ran it down Harmony's throat.  If that doesn't wake New Diana up, I don't know what will. 

New Diana had a similar trend-breaking game against Leonard.  They had done something they hadn't done all year either and that is hold a team to significantly less than they are used to scoring.  Again, going into that game against Leonard, New Diana was allowing 33.7 ppg to teams that average 30.2 ppg.  They weren't doing ANYTHING to stop teams.  Teams were getting what they normally get on average, and even more than that on average.  Yet, they held a Leonard team averaging 34.6 ppg to just 8, and that 8 very well could have come during garbage time.  If that doesn't wake Jacksboro up, I don't know what will.

That's what makes this one interesting to me.  Which New Diana defense is going to show up?  The one from last week, or the one from the rest of the year who gives teams whatever they want and more?  Which Jacksboro offense is going to show up?  The one from last week or the one from the rest of the year who scores marginally more than what teams usually give up anyway?  Outside of last week, each team's strength is the other's Achilles' heel.

Here are some numbers and predictions :  

Considering the stats from all games played, pre-district, district and playoffs, I've got Jacksboro with a slight edge, 39-33.  If each team plays one of their best games, I've got Jacksboro in a toss-up, 34-32.  If each team plays one of their worst, Jacksboro wins, 47-33.  If we get Jacksboro's best game and New Diana's worst, Jacksboro takes it, 68-30.  New Diana's best vs Jacksboro's worst, New Diana with the win, 50-20.  These last two I consider the "range of possibilities" based on each team's best and worst games of the year so far.

Considering only district games, I get Jacksboro in a 43-35 win.  Considering only playoff games (this is still a small sample size of two each), I get Jacksboro winning, 38-19.  If each team plays like they did last week in their trend-breaking games,  I get Jacksboro in a close one, 28-21.  Last, since each team averages over 30 ppg, I like to see how each team does against opponents who average more than 30 ppg, and considering only these games, I get Jacksboro winning 44-27.

I think a variable that my numbers cannot account for is how Jacksboro's defense will handle New Diana's passing attack.  That said, my final prediction on this one is going to be Jacksboro with a 42-28 win.

 

Leonard never crossed the 50 against Gunter.  70-0

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56 minutes ago, blueflu said:

Leonard 

Leonard never crossed the 50 against Gunter.  70-0

Yes, I was at this game.  Gunter is on another level than both of these teams in my opinion. That's not a knock on either of these teams though.  New Diana did shut them down just the same, and that is absolutely worth mentioning I think.  Neither of these teams are playing Gunter this week.  Gunter has enough to deal with in Holliday.

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19 hours ago, TTman7 said:

Thanks Pax. Incredible in your analysis and very well appreciated by all.

I'm a ND fan so I hope you're wrong, lol. 

Pax,

Enjoy reading your analysis and the different Variables at play.  This is again just a guessing game due to the fact that these are High School Players and not the College or Pro Ranks.  Not sure how you would weight those factors.  But one factor that can't be weighted, IMO, is the EMOTIONAL Factor.  ND had a let down in the 1st half of PP because of the EMOTIONAL Factor with the DF Win the week before.  They however were able to find it in the 4th Quarter to defeat PP.    I tend to look more at the Emotional Factor and weight this more than others items..Jacksboro had this big win last week over Harmony and had to get up for it all week before.  Will this effect them tonight?  How do you prepare for ND less one day and totally redo your Defense to guard against the Pass.  Both Teams have their plan.  I't will be fun to see which teams so up.  

Thanks again for your Analysis, it is always apprecitated

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59 minutes ago, CF21 said:

The Eagles are going to break through tonight. They can score on anybody and even if this becomes a shootout, I think that the ND offense will score more. 

Comparing scores, and I know many don't like this, but here it is.

New Diana 47  Winona 42  ( Harmony 53 Winona 0 )

New Diana 43 Pewitt 39  ( Harmony 42 Pewitt 0 )

New Diana 42 Hooks 28  ( Edgewood 49 Hooks 14 )

 

Jacksboro defeated Harmony 42-26.  ND better score every time they have the ball and make a stop every time Jacksboro does.  Taking the Tigers by 2 TD's

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1 minute ago, ShoelessJoe said:

Comparing scores, and I know many don't like this, but here it is.

New Diana 47  Winona 42  ( Harmony 53 Winona 0 )

New Diana 43 Pewitt 39  ( Harmony 42 Pewitt 0 )

New Diana 42 Hooks 28  ( Edgewood 49 Hooks 14 )

 

Jacksboro defeated Harmony 42-26.  ND better score every time they have the ball and make a stop every time Jacksboro does.  Taking the Tigers by 2 TD's

Notice what all those ND scores have in common? They scored enough to win. Everyone including you was shocked that Jacksboro beat Harmony and when you look at the data, they played their game of the year. Even if they do that again tonight, ND has the offense to come from behind and score quickly. It may be a 63-62 game, but ND will score enough to win. 

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17 minutes ago, CF21 said:

Notice what all those ND scores have in common? They scored enough to win. Everyone including you was shocked that Jacksboro beat Harmony and when you look at the data, they played their game of the year. Even if they do that again tonight, ND has the offense to come from behind and score quickly. It may be a 63-62 game, but ND will score enough to win. 

You may very well be right, I just think Jacksboro will win.  Nothing wrong with that.  I could care less who wins, just giving an opinion.  Good luck to both teams, it should be a very entertaining game tonight.

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Just now, ShoelessJoe said:

I think it will be a lot higher scoring game.  Jacksboro can run the ball and ND can throw it.  Should be a fun game to watch.  Better than Dallas and Washington.

 

1 minute ago, ShoelessJoe said:

I think it will be a lot higher scoring game.  Jacksboro can run the ball and ND can throw it.  Should be a fun game to watch.  Better than Dallas and Washington.

👍

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It will be interesting to see how well Jacksboro handles the ND passing game.  I believe ND the defense will struggle against Jacksboro's running game and will be forced to air it out all night.  ND will score some points, but I think Jacksboro makes some stops and controls the clock.   Picking Jacksboro in this game.

ND did play some good defense against DF's running game in allowing only 21 points.  If they hold Jacksboro to 21 they will likely win.  Other than DF game it appears ND gave up quite a few points however.

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1 minute ago, blueflu said:

what radio station

you can watch it on www.nfhsnetwork.com if you subscribe. It's $10 for the month, but you get to watch a lot of games this weekend live and can watch other past games on demand. It's pretty cool. 

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