DOB Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Excedrin Headache #31: Think I've got my I's dotted and my T's crossed on this one .... The Given Scenario: Harleton, Bobo, and Blair are all eliminated from playoff contention The Assumptive Scenario: Garrison beats Open and Joaquin beats Harleton The Associative Scenario: Timpson and Beckville are both rooting hard for Tenaha to roll over L-K Then - IF TENAHA WINS … the winner of Timpson-Beckville game goes in as the 4th Place Team; Tigers as 3rd Or - IF L-K WINS … the winner of the TIMPSON-BECKVILLE game goes into a Three-Way Tie for Third with Tenaha and L-K. With Tenaha and L-K in the tie breaker with BECKVILLE: Beckville sitting at +11 (vs LK) and -20 (vs Tenaha) = -9, then - L-K would have to beat Tenaha by at least +3 to make the playoffs (ending at -11 and +3 = -8), thus eliminating Beckville (at a -9) Winning by just 1 or 2, then L-K would be the odd man out and Beckville would go in as 4th seed. Tenaha, sitting currently at +20 (vs Beckville), would need to lose by 30+ to NOT make the playoffs at all. Any L-K win between 3 and 30 points pretty much eliminates Beckville. (GO TENAHA) With Tenaha and L-K in the tie breaker with TIMPSON: Timpson sitting at -35 (vs T) and a -1 (vs LK) = -36 (again assuming that there is NO MAX), then: An L-K win, even by just a single point, would put them in the playoffs (due to their 1 point win over Bears) and eliminate Timpson from the playoffs UNLESS Tenaha virtually fails to show up and loses to L-K by 72 or more, ending Tenaha at a +35 (vs Timp) and a -72 (vs L-K) = -37 If the district does have a Max Clause (many use 21), then the odds are that of the winner of the Timpson-Beckville game has no reasonable logistic probability of post-season IF L-K BEATS TENAHA. It all boils down to taking care of YOUR own business and let the chips fall where the may. Take it to the limits of the field and leave nothing behind to ever regret. GO TENAHA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Rather than go through each possible scenario, I’m just going to state what each team needs to get them a playoff spot. #1. Garrison (8-2, 6-0) has the bye. Bulldogs are the undisputed district champs and the #1 seed. #2. Joaquin (7-2, 3-2) vs Harleton (1-8, 0-5) needs to beat Harleton to kick down the #2 seed. Still get in with a loss no matter what happens elsewhere. #3. Tenaha (6-3, 3-2) need to beat LK (6-3, 2-3) to lock down the #3 seed. Can move up to #2 with a win and a Joaquin loss. Due to having the tiebreakers maxed out vs Timpson and Beckville they are locked in to a playoff spot with a loss here. #4. Timpson (3-6, 2-3) Need a win over Beckville (5-4, 2-3) to lock up the #4 seed with Joaquin and Tenaha wins. Can move up to #3 with a Joaquin loss and a Tenaha win. Will be eliminated if Joaquin and LK both win. Also eliminated with a loss to Beckville. #5. Beckville (5-4, 2-3) Need to beat Timpson to get in as the #4 with Joaquin and Tenaha wins. Cannot get in if either of those teams lose. #6. Linden-Kildare (6-3, 2-3) Need to beat Tenaha, then have Joaquin and Timpson win. That leaves them tied with Timpson and they get in due to their head-to-head. Will be odd man out if Beckville wins. #7. Harleton (1-8, 0-5) already airing up the basketballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destry Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 TrueBlue, at Harleton, skipping basketball and checking on bats and making sure pitchers dont get hurt. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cotton84 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 5 hours ago, trueblue82 said: Rather than go through each possible scenario, I’m just going to state what each team needs to get them a playoff spot. #1. Garrison (8-2, 6-0) has the bye. Bulldogs are the undisputed district champs and the #1 seed. #2. Joaquin (7-2, 3-2) vs Harleton (1-8, 0-5) needs to beat Harleton to kick down the #2 seed. Still get in with a loss no matter what happens elsewhere. #3. Tenaha (6-3, 3-2) need to beat LK (6-3, 2-3) to lock down the #3 seed. Can move up to #2 with a win and a Joaquin loss. Due to having the tiebreakers maxed out vs Timpson and Beckville they are locked in to a playoff spot with a loss here. #4. Timpson (3-6, 2-3) Need a win over Beckville (5-4, 2-3) to lock up the #4 seed with Joaquin and Tenaha wins. Can move up to #3 with a Joaquin loss and a Tenaha win. Will be eliminated if Joaquin and LK both win. Also eliminated with a loss to Beckville. #5. Beckville (5-4, 2-3) Need to beat Timpson to get in as the #4 with Joaquin and Tenaha wins. Cannot get in if either of those teams lose. #6. Linden-Kildare (6-3, 2-3) Need to beat Tenaha, then have Joaquin and Timpson win. That leaves them tied with Timpson and they get in due to their head-to-head. Will be odd man out if Beckville wins. #7. Harleton (1-8, 0-5) already airing up the basketballs. # 6 is wrong. Beckville can win and L-K still make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, cotton84 said: # 6 is wrong. Beckville can win and L-K still make the playoffs. I told ya before the season started ... you aren't in the powder puff district you were in last season ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, cotton84 said: # 6 is wrong. Beckville can win and L-K still make the playoffs. I’m listening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cotton84 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, trueblue82 said: I’m listening. 3 way tie with Tenaha, Beckville, and L-K for 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Goes to tie breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cotton84 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, KirtFalcon said: I told ya before the season started ... you aren't in the powder puff district you were in last season ... And ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, cotton84 said: 3 way tie with Tenaha, Beckville, and L-K for 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Goes to tie breaker. What was the final between Tenaha and Beckville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diehard Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 45 minutes ago, trueblue82 said: What was the final between Tenaha and Beckville? 48-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, BlueBlood99 said: 48-28 Ok, so they have a chance. They need to beat Tenaha by 10 or more, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cotton84 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, trueblue82 said: Ok, so they have a chance. They need to beat Tenaha by 10 or more, correct? Depends on what the district maximum win margin is, and nobody on Smoaky seems to know. If 18 is the most you can win by, L-K would need to win by 5. If 21 is the maximum, L-K needs to win by 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diehard Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, cotton84 said: Depends on what the district maximum win margin is, and nobody on Smoaky seems to know. If 18 is the most you can win by, L-K would need to win by 5. If 21 is the maximum, L-K needs to win by 3. Almost positive its 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, BlueBlood99 said: Almost positive its 21 That’s what Coach Lawson said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, cotton84 said: Depends on what the district maximum win margin is, and nobody on Smoaky seems to know. If 18 is the most you can win by, L-K would need to win by 5. If 21 is the maximum, L-K needs to win by 3. Gonna need you to explain the math on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cotton84 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, trueblue82 said: Gonna need you to explain the math on that. Beckville lost by 20 to Tenaha and beat L-K by 11. That is a difference of 9 points——-minus 9 for Beckville L-K got beat by Beckville(as stated above) by 11. If L-K beats Tenaha by 3, L-K would be minus 8 Minus 8 is better than minus 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, cotton84 said: Beckville lost by 20 to Tenaha and beat L-K by 11. That is a difference of 9 poiunts ——-minus 9 for Beckville L-K got beat by Beckville(as stated above) by 11. If L-K beats Tenaha by 3, L-K would be minus 8 Minus 8 is better than minus 9. I see. I stand corrected. Please don’t tell my wife. She thinks I’m never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upullinmychain Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 There is an app I've seen somewhere that you can enter teams w/L points into and it'll give the points needed to place in playoffs..can't find it rite now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cotton84 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Is the Timpson player who was taken off by ambulance at L-K back doing okay ?...……...Able to play this week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Playoff matchups: Garrison (8-2, 6-0) vs. Groveton (4-6, 2-3) 7:30 Friday at Abe Martin Stadium in Lufkin. Joaquin (8-2, 4-2) vs. West Sabine (5-5, 3-2) 7:30 Friday at Dragon Stadium in Nacogdoches. Tenaha (7-3, 4-2) vs. Shelbyville (5-5, 4-1) 7:00 Thursday at Wildcat Stadium in Waskom. Timpson (4-6, 3-3) vs. San Augustine (8-2, 5-0) 7:30 Friday at Lion Stadium in Henderson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trueblue82 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Just now, trueblue82 said: Playoff matchups: Garrison (8-2, 6-0) vs. Groveton (4-6, 2-3) 7:30 Friday at Abe Martin Stadium in Lufkin. Joaquin (8-2, 4-2) vs. West Sabine (5-5, 3-2) 7:30 Friday at Dragon Stadium in Nacogdoches. Tenaha (7-3, 4-2) vs. Shelbyville (5-5, 4-1) 7:00 Thursday at Wildcat Stadium in Waskom. Timpson (4-6, 3-3) vs. San Augustine (8-2, 5-0) 7:30 Friday at Lion Stadium in Henderson. I’m going with Bulldogs, Rams, Tigers and Wolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 44 minutes ago, trueblue82 said: I’m going with Bulldogs, Rams, Tigers and Wolves. Good picks ... Timpson could slip through if they are 100% healthy and the ball bounces right for them ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diehard Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, KirtFalcon said: Good picks ... Timpson could slip through if they are 100% healthy and the ball bounces right for them ... Timpson needs to start fast. Early success changes the way their kids play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StingEmALTO Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 13 hours ago, trueblue82 said: I’m going with Bulldogs, Rams, Tigers and Wolves. Same. 11-2A goes 3-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diehard Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Hard for me to believe LK and B’ville are staying home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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