Jump to content

Bells @ Gunter


ObiOne

Week 6  

16 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Ya Got?

    • Bells Panthers
    • Gunter Tigers

This poll is closed to new votes

  • Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.
  • Poll closed on 10/03/2020 at 12:30 AM

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, ObiOne said:

That team was pretty special. You guys obviously know what state champs look like.  Does this years GT team look like contenders?

In 2016 we had some mediocre games like 27-20 over Pilot Point and I wondered if we would even get out of district.  Just got better every week and dominated in the playoffs.  The offense was new though, but while this year the offense is not new most of the players in it are.  The young talent has shown much promise but are making way more mistakes than Gunter teams have been making.  To be expected at this point but I fully expect that to improve and if it does we will be pretty good before its over.

The coaching staff is excellent.  Good about making adjustments.  We'll be as good as we can be.

By the way Whitewright might be underestimated.  Pretty good defense and a grind it out short passing game with some runs mixed in.  Well coached.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wingtveer said:

Gunter by at least 20. They will be more focused for a scrappy Bells team.

Might happen but I will be surprised.  Bells program doesn't get a lot of respect and that is understandable.  But I think that is about to change.  Bells has lost 2 games since district started last year.  One to Pewitt and this year to Holliday.  We had 391 rushing yards in the loss to Holliday and outgained them overall but kept shooting ourselves in the foot with penalties.  The best win in that stretch is Elysian Fields by far.  The only reason I bring up last season is because Bells only lost one RB/LB and a couple of offensive lineman.  Bells is a young scrappy team still learning the system and they get better every week.  Now if they can keep penalties to  a minimum they will be tough to stop.  The slot-t needs to be nearly penalty free to be successful against good teams.  We will find out soon enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, ObiOne said:

That team was pretty special. You guys obviously know what state champs look like.  Does this years GT team look like contenders?

Hard to say.  We didn't know we had a state championship team in 2016 until about midway through the 3rd quarter of the Boling game.  Knowing that 2016 was a championship team, I thought we had another one in 2017.  That Gunter team looked a lot better than the 2016 team to me.

I have a stat I call "swing" and it's pretty simple.  It is a single number that grades a team taking their strength of schedule into account.  If you beat a team by 20 points and they are used to losing by 20 points anyway, the swing is 0.  If you lose to a team by 10 who is used to winning games by 20, you get a +10.  It doesn't punish you for losing to good teams, nor does it reward you for blowing out a bad team.  The swing is their average for the season.  In 2016, Gunter's swing was a +38.6.  Meaning Gunter swings teams by an average 38.6 points out of their average game.  If a team is used to winning by 20 points, then Gunter on paper would beat that team - on average - by 18.6 points.  So on.

The 2017 Gunter team was a +55.2 going into the state championship game against Newton.  Unfortunately, Newton was also a +54.4.  So, sometimes you just have a team that puts it together at the right time and makes a nice run, and sometimes you just run into a buzz saw like Gunter did in 2017.  Both Newton and Canadian were around a +40 in 2018, and Gunter was a +38.6 in 2019 when they won state for the second time. 

Right now, Gunter is sitting at +26.2 while Bells is at +10.0.  Those swing numbers I gave earlier were for only the district and playoff games.  I keep pre-district out because it's hard to tell the level of competition your opponents are playing and it skews the numbers more often than not, and each team here has only played one district game, so the current swing numbers include all 5 games played by both teams.  But, if you only include the one district game played by each team, Gunter was a +30.1 against Whitewright.  Bells was a +56.0 against Leonard. 

This +56 against Leonard is why I don't include pre-district games.  Leonard has only played two games, one of them against Detroit where they beat them 62-20.  Their only other game is a 14-0 win over another mediocre team.  So on paper, Leonard is averaging 38 points a game and giving up 10.  So winning on average by 28 points.  Bells beat Leonard by 28 points, so they "swung" that game by 56 points.  This 56 point swing game increases Bells overall swing from -1.5 to +10.  In other words, before the Leonard game, Bells on average GIVES points to their opponents, meaning if their opponents are used to winning by 7, they beat bells by 9.  I don't think Bells is a negative swing team - which is why I don't do the numbers stuff this early usually.  Just too few games so big anomalies skew things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Pax said:

Hard to say.  We didn't know we had a state championship team in 2016 until about midway through the 3rd quarter of the Boling game.  Knowing that 2016 was a championship team, I thought we had another one in 2017.  That Gunter team looked a lot better than the 2016 team to me.

I have a stat I call "swing" and it's pretty simple.  It is a single number that grades a team taking their strength of schedule into account.  If you beat a team by 20 points and they are used to losing by 20 points anyway, the swing is 0.  If you lose to a team by 10 who is used to winning games by 20, you get a +10.  It doesn't punish you for losing to good teams, nor does it reward you for blowing out a bad team.  The swing is their average for the season.  In 2016, Gunter's swing was a +38.6.  Meaning Gunter swings teams by an average 38.6 points out of their average game.  If a team is used to winning by 20 points, then Gunter on paper would beat that team - on average - by 18.6 points.  So on.

The 2017 Gunter team was a +55.2 going into the state championship game against Newton.  Unfortunately, Newton was also a +54.4.  So, sometimes you just have a team that puts it together at the right time and makes a nice run, and sometimes you just run into a buzz saw like Gunter did in 2017.  Both Newton and Canadian were around a +40 in 2018, and Gunter was a +38.6 in 2019 when they won state for the second time. 

Right now, Gunter is sitting at +26.2 while Bells is at +10.0.  Those swing numbers I gave earlier were for only the district and playoff games.  I keep pre-district out because it's hard to tell the level of competition your opponents are playing and it skews the numbers more often than not, and each team here has only played one district game, so the current swing numbers include all 5 games played by both teams.  But, if you only include the one district game played by each team, Gunter was a +30.1 against Whitewright.  Bells was a +56.0 against Leonard. 

This +56 against Leonard is why I don't include pre-district games.  Leonard has only played two games, one of them against Detroit where they beat them 62-20.  Their only other game is a 14-0 win over another mediocre team.  So on paper, Leonard is averaging 38 points a game and giving up 10.  So winning on average by 28 points.  Bells beat Leonard by 28 points, so they "swung" that game by 56 points.  This 56 point swing game increases Bells overall swing from -1.5 to +10.  In other words, before the Leonard game, Bells on average GIVES points to their opponents, meaning if their opponents are used to winning by 7, they beat bells by 9.  I don't think Bells is a negative swing team - which is why I don't do the numbers stuff this early usually.  Just too few games so big anomalies skew things.

Now I remember seeing your swing system last year.  Seemed like it was pretty darn accurate by the time the playoffs roll around.  Bells numbers are really skewed from the first few games.  Bells was up 40+ at halftime against a couple of bad teams and played mostly subs the 2nd half and the score didn't show towards the swing.  Holliday is a lot better IMO than their swing numbers, Leonard is probably quite a bit worse than theirs.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ObiOne said:

Now I remember seeing your swing system last year.  Seemed like it was pretty darn accurate by the time the playoffs roll around.  Bells numbers are really skewed from the first few games.  Bells was up 40+ at halftime against a couple of bad teams and played mostly subs the 2nd half and the score didn't show towards the swing.  Holliday is a lot better IMO than their swing numbers, Leonard is probably quite a bit worse than theirs.  

Yeah, blowouts will skew the numbers a lot this early on.  When you get a few more games into the season, they get washed out in the mix.  

I looked back, and I did the Bells v Elysian Fields game last year.  I had Bells winning that one, but the numbers suggested a higher scoring game.  Looks like I had 36-31 Bells.  Bells was a +14.8.  EF was a +8.2.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ObiOne said:

That is pretty strong against a 5A jv

Yeah. One can't expect Princeton to be strong. It's really strange that the town is growing but it's just not happening. Crime is up...

When Princeton moved up to 3A years ago (1982) the school still had a 2A sized football team for something like 27-29 years. So it was quite challenging. I remember the 2004 team playing only 24 and Royse City had well over 40 on their sidelines. 

I hope Gunter can keep up the winning they have going with the growth that's coming.

Thanks!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...