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Gunter vs Eastland


blueflu
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I said at the beginning of the playoffs that Eastland was a dark horse, and that nobody really wants to face that offense. However, I believe Gunter’s coach will have a plan. I think Gunter by two TD’s. I think Fieszel slows the game down, and Eastland won’t stop Gunters offense. 

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Since district started, Eastland is averaging 51.4 points per game vs defenses that give up 25.3 on average.  This is 26.1 more points than the defense they play gives up on average.  They are holding teams that score 27.3 per game to 23.4 per game, so just 3.9 points fewer than the offense they play normally score.  Overall swing for Eastland is +30.0.

Gunter is scoring 48.1 per game vs defenses giving up 26.2 per game, or 22.0 more points than the defense allows on average.  On the defensive side, they are holding teams that normally score 31.1 per game to just 7.5 points per game (23.6 fewer).

On paper, the offenses are fairly evenly matched - Eastland with the edge.  On the defensive side, Gunter has a significantly better defense on paper.  Based on all games, I get a prediction of Gunter 45, Eastland 31.

If you take each team's best three "swing" games and assume they each play one of their best games, I get a 47-26 Gunter win.  If you take each team's worst three swing games and assume they each play one of their worst games, I get a 42-39 Gunter win.  One of Gunter's worst vs one of Eastland's best, and I get an Eastland win, 38-32.  One of Gunter's best vs one of Eastland's worst, and I get a 57-27 Gunter win.

In the playoffs, Gunter is averaging 55.0 points per game vs defenses that give up 24.9 on average (30.1 more).  On defense, they are giving up 8.3 per game to teams averaging 36.6 per game, or 28.3 points more.  Gunter's overall swing in the playoffs is a +58.4.

Eastland is averaging 44.3 per game in the playoffs against teams that give up 21.4 (22.9 more) and holding teams averaging 32.0 per game to 22.3 (9.7 fewer).  Overall swing for Eastland in the playoffs : +32.6  The prediction based only on playoff games is Gunter 49, Eastland 24.

I think Eastland has had slightly better competition in the playoffs, but I also think this is more than offset by the fact that Gunter let off the gas really early in two of their three playoff games, so their scores could have been a lot worse.  In Gunter's three playoff games, the average halftime score has been 48-2.  In Eastland's three playoff games, the average halftime score has been 23-11.

I'll take Gunter, 42-28.

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4 hours ago, Pax said:

Since district started, Eastland is averaging 51.4 points per game vs defenses that give up 25.3 on average.  This is 26.1 more points than the defense they play gives up on average.  They are holding teams that score 27.3 per game to 23.4 per game, so just 3.9 points fewer than the offense they play normally score.  Overall swing for Eastland is +30.0.

Gunter is scoring 48.1 per game vs defenses giving up 26.2 per game, or 22.0 more points than the defense allows on average.  On the defensive side, they are holding teams that normally score 31.1 per game to just 7.5 points per game (23.6 fewer).

On paper, the offenses are fairly evenly matched - Eastland with the edge.  On the defensive side, Gunter has a significantly better defense on paper.  Based on all games, I get a prediction of Gunter 45, Eastland 31.

If you take each team's best three "swing" games and assume they each play one of their best games, I get a 47-26 Gunter win.  If you take each team's worst three swing games and assume they each play one of their worst games, I get a 42-39 Gunter win.  One of Gunter's worst vs one of Eastland's best, and I get an Eastland win, 38-32.  One of Gunter's best vs one of Eastland's worst, and I get a 57-27 Gunter win.

In the playoffs, Gunter is averaging 55.0 points per game vs defenses that give up 24.9 on average (30.1 more).  On defense, they are giving up 8.3 per game to teams averaging 36.6 per game, or 28.3 points more.  Gunter's overall swing in the playoffs is a +58.4.

Eastland is averaging 44.3 per game in the playoffs against teams that give up 21.4 (22.9 more) and holding teams averaging 32.0 per game to 22.3 (9.7 fewer).  Overall swing for Eastland in the playoffs : +32.6  The prediction based only on playoff games is Gunter 49, Eastland 24.

I think Eastland has had slightly better competition in the playoffs, but I also think this is more than offset by the fact that Gunter let off the gas really early in two of their three playoff games, so their scores could have been a lot worse.  In Gunter's three playoff games, the average halftime score has been 48-2.  In Eastland's three playoff games, the average halftime score has been 23-11.

I'll take Gunter, 42-28.

Great stuff Pax. I know it has to be a job processing all that info. I’m taking Gunter by 17 , but I’ll take 14 too. TPW

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More stats.

Again, only considering games since district started for both teams.  Sometimes it's hard to get a gauge on how a team is when the games are largely blowouts.  So here are some scoring stats per quarter :

For Eastland :

After 1 : 12-5

After 2 : 29-13

After 3 : 40-17

Final : 51-23

For Gunter :

After 1 : 22-2

After 2 : 36-2

After 3 : 46-3

Final : 48-8.

In 8 games, Eastland has failed to hold a team scoreless in the first half.  Gunter has held 6 of the 8 teams they have played scoreless in the first half.  In fact, Gunter has held those same 6 teams scoreless through three quarters.  40 of the 60 points Gunter has allowed have come in the 4th quarter.  Gunter also isn't scoring in the 4th because they have packed it in by then.  Eastland is still scoring in the 4th regularly, so their ppg could be a bit misleading when comparing it to Gunter.  Gunter is actually being outscored in the 4th quarter 5-2 on average.

On a total yards basis, Eastland out-gains Gunter 3,938 to 2,528.  However, when you look at it on a per-play basis and how efficient the offense is with scoring, Gunter is much better.  Eastland has more yards because they simply run more plays.  They have a fast-paced offense.  They have run 500 plays to Gunter's 313.  On a per-play basis, Gunter gains 8.1 yards per play to Eastland's 7.9 yards per play.  Gunter rushes for 7.1 yards per rush to Eastland's 6.9 yards per rush, and they even do better in the air with 11.8 yards per attempt to Eastland's 8.8 yards per attempt.  Gunter is more efficient scoring an offensive touchdown per 7.1 plays while Eastland takes 9.4 plays per TD on average.  Gunter is more efficient on offense in that they score an offensive touchdown for every 57.5 offensive yards gained, while Eastland takes 74.3 yards per TD (I consider this a defensive and special teams stat as well as Gunter's D and ST consistently give them short fields which can partially explain the small number of yards they gain per TD).

On the flip side, you have the defenses.  Eastland allows 6.5 yards per passing attempt while Gunter holds teams to 4.5 yards per attempt.  Eastland allows 6.9 yards per rush while Gunter holds teams to 3.9 yards per run.  Overall, Eastland allows 6.8 yards per offensive play while Gunter allows 4.1 yards.  Eastland forces teams to run 20.3 offensive plays for every TD they give up.  Gunter makes teams run 53.3 plays per TD.  Eastland gives up a TD for every 119.6 yards gained.  Gunter makes teams go 179 yards per TD.

On a comparison basis - taking into account how their opponents do on average, Eastland takes teams that normally take 13.9 plays per TD and forces them to take 20.3.  In other words, teams run 6.4 more plays per TD on average against Eastland.  Against Gunter, teams run 41.4 more plays per TD.  This is significant.  If this trend holds true, Eastland - in an average game - take 9.4 plays per TD.  If Gunter makes teams take on average 41.4 more plays than they are used to, this would mean Eastland would take 50 plays to score - when they only average 63 plays a game.  I say "only" when this is actually a ton of plays because of how fast-paced their offense is.  If Gunter can hold them off, they will probably score a ton since they will get more opportunities on offense than they are used to.  This reminds me of the New Diana game.  I am not saying it will be like that, but I remember thinking Gunter could put up some points because of how fast-paced the New Diana offense was, and that turned out to be true.  We will see.

Just for comparison, Holliday held Eastland to 28 points.  Holliday holds teams to 1.9 fewer yards per play than they average.  Gunter holds them to 2.7 fewer per play.  Holliday makes teams run 12.4 more plays per TD than they average, Gunter makes teams run 41.4 more plays than they average.  Holliday makes teams gain 56.6 more yards per TD than they average.  Gunter makes teams go 97.1 more yards than they average. 

Just some last-minute tidbits.

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54 minutes ago, Pax said:

More stats.

Again, only considering games since district started for both teams.  Sometimes it's hard to get a gauge on how a team is when the games are largely blowouts.  So here are some scoring stats per quarter :

For Eastland :

After 1 : 12-5

After 2 : 29-13

After 3 : 40-17

Final : 51-23

For Gunter :

After 1 : 22-2

After 2 : 36-2

After 3 : 46-3

Final : 48-8.

In 8 games, Eastland has failed to hold a team scoreless in the first half.  Gunter has held 6 of the 8 teams they have played scoreless in the first half.  In fact, Gunter has held those same 6 teams scoreless through three quarters.  40 of the 60 points Gunter has allowed have come in the 4th quarter.  Gunter also isn't scoring in the 4th because they have packed it in by then.  Eastland is still scoring in the 4th regularly, so their ppg could be a bit misleading when comparing it to Gunter.  Gunter is actually being outscored in the 4th quarter 5-2 on average.

On a total yards basis, Eastland out-gains Gunter 3,938 to 2,528.  However, when you look at it on a per-play basis and how efficient the offense is with scoring, Gunter is much better.  Eastland has more yards because they simply run more plays.  They have a fast-paced offense.  They have run 500 plays to Gunter's 313.  On a per-play basis, Gunter gains 8.1 yards per play to Eastland's 7.9 yards per play.  Gunter rushes for 7.1 yards per rush to Eastland's 6.9 yards per rush, and they even do better in the air with 11.8 yards per attempt to Eastland's 8.8 yards per attempt.  Gunter is more efficient scoring an offensive touchdown per 7.1 plays while Eastland takes 9.4 plays per TD on average.  Gunter is more efficient on offense in that they score an offensive touchdown for every 57.5 offensive yards gained, while Eastland takes 74.3 yards per TD (I consider this a defensive and special teams stat as well as Gunter's D and ST consistently give them short fields which can partially explain the small number of yards they gain per TD).

On the flip side, you have the defenses.  Eastland allows 6.5 yards per passing attempt while Gunter holds teams to 4.5 yards per attempt.  Eastland allows 6.9 yards per rush while Gunter holds teams to 3.9 yards per run.  Overall, Eastland allows 6.8 yards per offensive play while Gunter allows 4.1 yards.  Eastland forces teams to run 20.3 offensive plays for every TD they give up.  Gunter makes teams run 53.3 plays per TD.  Eastland gives up a TD for every 119.6 yards gained.  Gunter makes teams go 179 yards per TD.

On a comparison basis - taking into account how their opponents do on average, Eastland takes teams that normally take 13.9 plays per TD and forces them to take 20.3.  In other words, teams run 6.4 more plays per TD on average against Eastland.  Against Gunter, teams run 41.4 more plays per TD.  This is significant.  If this trend holds true, Eastland - in an average game - take 9.4 plays per TD.  If Gunter makes teams take on average 41.4 more plays than they are used to, this would mean Eastland would take 50 plays to score - when they only average 63 plays a game.  I say "only" when this is actually a ton of plays because of how fast-paced their offense is.  If Gunter can hold them off, they will probably score a ton since they will get more opportunities on offense than they are used to.  This reminds me of the New Diana game.  I am not saying it will be like that, but I remember thinking Gunter could put up some points because of how fast-paced the New Diana offense was, and that turned out to be true.  We will see.

Just for comparison, Holliday held Eastland to 28 points.  Holliday holds teams to 1.9 fewer yards per play than they average.  Gunter holds them to 2.7 fewer per play.  Holliday makes teams run 12.4 more plays per TD than they average, Gunter makes teams run 41.4 more plays than they average.  Holliday makes teams gain 56.6 more yards per TD than they average.  Gunter makes teams go 97.1 more yards than they average. 

Just some last-minute tidbits.

You are good PAX! I love reading your breakdowns. Also, the first 2 playoff rounds for Gunter had a running clock by the 2nd qtr. 

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16 minutes ago, RickDub said:

You are good PAX! I love reading your breakdowns. Also, the first 2 playoff rounds for Gunter had a running clock by the 2nd qtr. 

Yep, I remember.  I think they started running the clock and took the starters out in the Rice game when Gunter took a 52-0 lead with over 7 minutes left in the 2nd quarter.  

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