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3A D2 Championship


State Championship  

45 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Ya Got?

    • Canadian Wildcats
    • Franklin Lions

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  • Poll closed on 12/17/2020 at 09:00 PM

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33 minutes ago, Pax said:

Just finished.  Since district started, Franklin is averaging 50.9 per game to teams that give up 26.7 per game on average (24.2 more).  They are holding teams that average 31.2 per game to 18.7 (14.2 fewer).  Total swing for Franklin is a +36.6.

Canadian averages 61.7 per game against defenses that give up 27.4 per game (34.3 more) and they hold teams that average 36.5 per game to just 8.6 per game (27.9 fewer).  Overall swing is +62.2.

The score prediction based on the full regular season is Canadian, 51-28. 

The numbers can be skewed when you play poor teams.  For example, Canadian's swing is a +62.2.  This is the average of all games.  Their lowest swing game of the year was a 78-0 win over Dimmitt.  Dimmitt loses their games by 46.4 points per game on average, so for Canadian to "swing" them out of their normal game by 62.2 points, Canadian would have had to beat them by 109 points.   Canadian was up 62-0 at halftime in that game, so they were certainly on pace to have their normal swing game against them.  There are several games like this, so here are the numbers only considering opponents who - on average - outscore their opponents by 14 or more points :

In these games, Canadian is a +70.4 beating teams by 40.2 on average who are used to winning by 30.2.  Franklin is a +41.8.  Teams used to winning by 18.8 on average lose to Franklin by an average of 23.0 points.  Score prediction based on only these games : Canadian, 42-19.

If both teams play like the average of their best three games, I get a 47-25 Canadian win.  If both teams play like the average of their worst three games, I get Canadian in a 48-27 win.  Canadian's worst vs Franklin's best : Canadian in a 43-35 win.  Franklin's worst vs Canadian's best : 56-7.  

By quarter and considering all games since district (some games missing because I don't have box scores) :

Canadian :

1 : 22-2

2 : 45-4

3 : 56-7 

Franklin :

1 : 16-5

2 : 31-10

3 : 39-13

Canadian has seen one team that scores more than Franklin.  That would be Idalou who averaged 53.2 ppg.  Canadian held Idalou to 6 points, and those 6 points came from a scoop and score fumble.  There are two other teams that score nearly 50 per game, so near Franklin in the scoring department.  In these three games, Canadian held those opponents to 8 points per game.  Canadian has three opponents that hold teams to fewer points than Franklin holds their opponents.  In these games, Canadian has averaged 48 points per game, so you could see a 49-7 type game playing out here.

Franklin has seen no opponents that score at the level Canadian is scoring, and they have seen no opponents that give up as few points as Canadian gives up.  My prediction is that Canadian outperforms the numbers and wins big. 

Dang! Thanks Pax! It’s always interesting to see how your team over or under performs your own impressions of them.

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IMO, Franklin needs to work on Holding on to the ball and passing game this week... Canadian will score at will but Franklin needs to finish drives and not stall... last nights game it was clear to me

Well I’m gonna eat my crow now. I really thought it would be much worse.    It was an awesome performance by the lions  I was impressed with their grit and athleticism, not to mention their youth play

Canadian wins comfortably... especially against a predominantly running team. Canadian is on a revenge tour and that defense is nasty!! 

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3 hours ago, Pax said:

Just finished.  Since district started, Franklin is averaging 50.9 per game to teams that give up 26.7 per game on average (24.2 more).  They are holding teams that average 31.2 per game to 18.7 (14.2 fewer).  Total swing for Franklin is a +36.6.

Canadian averages 61.7 per game against defenses that give up 27.4 per game (34.3 more) and they hold teams that average 36.5 per game to just 8.6 per game (27.9 fewer).  Overall swing is +62.2.

The score prediction based on the full regular season is Canadian, 51-28. 

The numbers can be skewed when you play poor teams.  For example, Canadian's swing is a +62.2.  This is the average of all games.  Their lowest swing game of the year was a 78-0 win over Dimmitt.  Dimmitt loses their games by 46.4 points per game on average, so for Canadian to "swing" them out of their normal game by 62.2 points, Canadian would have had to beat them by 109 points.   Canadian was up 62-0 at halftime in that game, so they were certainly on pace to have their normal swing game against them.  There are several games like this, so here are the numbers only considering opponents who - on average - outscore their opponents by 14 or more points :

In these games, Canadian is a +70.4 beating teams by 40.2 on average who are used to winning by 30.2.  Franklin is a +41.8.  Teams used to winning by 18.8 on average lose to Franklin by an average of 23.0 points.  Score prediction based on only these games : Canadian, 42-19.

If both teams play like the average of their best three games, I get a 47-25 Canadian win.  If both teams play like the average of their worst three games, I get Canadian in a 48-27 win.  Canadian's worst vs Franklin's best : Canadian in a 43-35 win.  Franklin's worst vs Canadian's best : 56-7.  

By quarter and considering all games since district (some games missing because I don't have box scores) :

Canadian :

1 : 22-2

2 : 45-4

3 : 56-7 

Franklin :

1 : 16-5

2 : 31-10

3 : 39-13

Canadian has seen one team that scores more than Franklin.  That would be Idalou who averaged 53.2 ppg.  Canadian held Idalou to 6 points, and those 6 points came from a scoop and score fumble.  There are two other teams that score nearly 50 per game, so near Franklin in the scoring department.  In these three games, Canadian held those opponents to 8 points per game.  Canadian has three opponents that hold teams to fewer points than Franklin holds their opponents.  In these games, Canadian has averaged 48 points per game, so you could see a 49-7 type game playing out here.

Franklin has seen no opponents that score at the level Canadian is scoring, and they have seen no opponents that give up as few points as Canadian gives up.  My prediction is that Canadian outperforms the numbers and wins big. 

Thanks Pax! 

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52 minutes ago, lionpride08 said:

How many miles it is to AT&T Stadium... Its been the motto all year... # staythecourse

Thats cool. I knew I seen that number somewhere lol

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1 hour ago, lionpride08 said:

We are ready to bring the heat and humidity!!!

Screenshot_20201216-205100.png

Nice, I like it

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If Franklin can keep the penalties limited and hold onto the ball they can stay in this game and pull it out, we'll see 

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