Jump to content

2022 5A/6A realignment


Mavchamp

Recommended Posts

I'm interested to see how much things change for Marshall ISD in the next 5, 6, 7 years.  Maybe not much at all.... maybe significantly.  Only time will tell.

The new distribution center that will open later this year is the biggest economic development in the last 10 years or more.  500+ jobs.

Lots of investing going on with national corporations/retailers in Marshall in the last year (Starbucks, Chic-fil-A, Burkes, Ollies, Hobby Lobby, Wing Stop).  

The 2016 bond that built all new schools K-8 and the multi million dollar improvements at MHS has definitely had a positive impact.  Enrollment (pre-COVID) at MHS and MISD was higher in 2020 than we had seen in almost 15 years.

I-69 is inching closer to reality.  Having I-20 and I-69 intersecting in Marshall could be HUGE.  Who knows when it will completed...but the planning alone has already got wheels turning for MEDCO.

----

A friend of mine who is a relator said that they have sold several houses in Marshall and in MISD to buyers from CA sight-unseen.... solely based on online photos of properties.  That's absolutely insane to me.

----

Anyhow... it'll be interesting to see how all this affects MISD. 

I don't think it will create enough growth to put them up a bracket (5AD1).... but moving them into the same neighborhood of Texas High and Nac with enrollment could be possible.

----

Bottom line..... East Texas is not.... and will likely never grow like suburban metro areas. (Frisco, Rockwall, Cypress, Conroe, Round Rock, etc).

I predict Legacy will eventually join the rest of East Texas in 5AD1..... possibly reuniting with Longview and Tyler.  We would need 1-2 other ETX schools to move up to D1 to see Lufkin back in the flock.  Nac, Hallsville, and Texarkana are the best candidates... and none are likely to happen.   Nac and THS have declining enrollments.  Hallsville's growth is snail-like.  Lufkin appears to permanently be headed south.

ETX D2 has a lot going on.  Jacksonville and Sulphur Springs are teetering to 4AD1 with no candidates to potentially move up.

The complication (or blessing?) is the I-30 corridor.  It's always a possibility that UIL can send any combination of schools down the I-30 corridor west.  Texas High, MP, SS..... and history has proven that Marshall, PT, and Hallsville can be sent that way too.

But there is always the possibility of a South district with Whitehouse, Nac, and possibly Marshall, PT, and Hallsville..... can't eliminate the possibility of Corsicana and/or Ennis being tossed into ETX again.

Next alignment could be very interesting.

Luckily the madness is mostly just football.  The rest of the sports are pretty easy to put together without all the divisions. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ANTI said:

@LOL @Mavchamp @Valhalla 

I sure was looking forward to moving back home in a few years, but these housing stories dont sound so encouraging lol

Houses moving fast as hell.

 

It took me a year and a half to find something I wanted, where I wanted it, in the price range I wanted.

Was outbid on 2 of them.  One of them sold for a little over 20K ABOVE asking price.  Both sold in less than 48 hours.

The one I finally bought.... was listed on a Tuesday afternoon about 1PM.  I looked at it about 3pm.  Made a bid about 4PM.  They accepted it before I went to bed.  Was singing papers a few days later.

It's a Killer market if you are looking for a 3-4BR in the 200-300K range.  Even harder if you have a wish list like location, pool, etc.  You will probably only get one shot at a bid and you have to jump quick.... as in hours instead of days. 

It was like playing the HI-LO game on TPIR.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This deluge of people from other states is real. Combine that with the lowest interest rates our grandparents couldn’t get,  the cost of building skyrocketing, and you have demand crushing supply. It’s 30-35% markups on everything. $200K homes two years ago are $260k today. $300K homes two years ago start at $380K. Anecdotally, my neighbor retired here from Nevada because they could get 2X the house for same money. CA folks coming in droves. What people want and are getting for early 1980s homes here in JAX blows my mind. 
 

This will end badly when the Fed normalizes interest rates. Who knows when that will be though. Historically, whenever pricing structures get changed this dramatically, someone is going to get left holding the bag. I’m not saying this is going to be 2008 all over again in real estate, but it has the potential to hurt a lot of people when the Fed reverses its course. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

 

I predict Legacy will eventually join the rest of East Texas in 5AD1..... possibly reuniting with Longview and Tyler.  We would need 1-2 other ETX schools to move up to D1 to see Lufkin back in the flock.  Nac, Hallsville, and Texarkana are the best candidates... and none are likely to happen.   Nac and THS have declining enrollments.  Hallsville's growth is snail-like.  Lufkin appears to permanently be headed south.

 

I think Legacy will only join 5a Div.1...IF...the 6a D1 bottom number comes up alot.  Legacy lost about 300 students a few yrs ago when the Early College school open. That dropped them to about 2200 students, but this yr they are up to 2350, and will probably be around 2400 next yr.  

I'm not saying it won't happen eventually, but I think we are few aligmnents away if they can maintain their current numbers. The bottom number was 2220 last time and it normally only changes by about 20 students each time. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, ANTI said:

@LOL @Mavchamp @Valhalla 

I sure was looking forward to moving back home in a few years, but these housing stories dont sound so encouraging lol

Houses moving fast as hell.

This can't continue at the current state. Bubble's gonna burst at some point, just don't know when. If you're still a few years out, you should just continue to build equity and wait. You might be able to swoop in on a killer deal when things start to pop. 

That's what I'm planning to do.  ;) 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm just biding my time.  I'm moving to the beach eventually.  Just a matter of when.

I need the bubble to burst in Tampa/Clearwater.....or San Diego.... can I get Daytona?  LMAO.

Otherwise I'll be headed to Puerto Vallarta.

I'll only be in Texas September-state championships.... lmao.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...