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Was reading an article the other day about the upcoming alignment how the glut of new schools will be changing the landscape for mostly metro 6A and 5A schools.

While East Texas 5A/6A is in the Piney Woods..... the fact is.... the metro schools affect us.  They affect the cutoff numbers for classifications.... and for some... having metro schools aligned into their district has become an annual reality. 

No reason to think 2022 will be any different.

Here are the scenarios I have tried to think of...I'm sure I'll miss a few.

1.  Any 6A Div II schools headed to 5A Div I?  Tyler Legacy?

2.  Any 5A Div I schools headed to 6A Div II?  Lufkin? Longview? Tyler?  HP?

3.  Any 5A Div I schools headed to 5A Div II?  No real candidates

4.  Any 5A Div II schools headed to 5A Div I?  Texas High? Nac? MP? Hallsville?  Whitehouse?

5.  Any 5A Div II schools headed to 4A Div I?  Sulphur Springs? Jacksonville?

6.  Any 4A Div I schools headed to 5A Div II?  Lindale? Chapel Hill?


 

 

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I haven't lived in Longview since damn near when I graduated HS but man....everytime I come back home... never fails to see something new built. Neighborhoods, businesses, roads...etc. Part of th

Wellllll, the numbers are *really* fuzzy right now, for a variety of reasons...  with different districts doing different things (RE: online/on-campus learning) you have a lot of kids who are "at LISD

Meanwhile PT is on a slow decline.  I live in Longview. No kids.  But if I did... it would be a no-brainer for me where I’d send them.  While LiSD has plenty of its own issues.... the opport

Keep an eye on:

Tyler Legacy-  Lee's enrollment once hovered around 2600.  It now stands at 2304 and is only 85 from dropping to 5A Div I.  A small increase of the current cutoff of 2219 coupled with a drop next fall could reunite the Red Raiders will crosstown rival Tyler and longtime opponent Longview.

Highland Park- I'm including them since they are in the same district with Longview and Tyler... but the Scots are only 11 from the 6A bubble at 2209.

Longview-  The Lobos missed 6A Div II by only 34 students.  If UIL bumps the cutoff up, a return to 6A in 2022 seems unlikely.  But if it remains at 2220, it's definitely within reach at 2186.

Lufkin- Like Longview, the Panthers are close to the bubble at 2177, just 43 short of 6A Div I.

Tyler- The Lions appear to be pretty firm in 5A Div I barring a pretty big drop this fall.  They are at 2111, which is 90 above the 5A Div II cutoff.

Cleveland- Only 41 from the 5A Div II cutoff.  

Sherman- The Bearcats are most definitely on the bubble at 1951, just 30 above the 5A Div II cutoff.  An increase of almost any amount in the cutoff with a slight drop in enrollment could send them to the Greenville/Royse CIty district.

Royse City- At 1904, the Bulldogs are only 18 from the 5A Div I cutoff.

North Forney- at 1894 and growing (quickly), they are practically a lock for Div I in 2022.  28 away.

Texas High- Doesn't appear to be in the cards for a return to Div I as the Tigers are now 84 below the cutoff.

Nac- A dropping enrollment has the Dragons over 200 from Div I..... they aren't going anywhere...they are firmly in the middle of Div II.

Pine Tree-  The Pirates in 4A Div I?  Not as farfetched as you think.  PT sat at 1284 in 2020.  Only 85 above the 4A cutoff.

Jacksonville- Only 45 above the 4A Div I cutoff.

Sulphur Springs- Only 22 above the 4A Div II cutoff.

Lindale- Dropped from 5A to 4A in 2020.....but they were only 27 below the 5A mark.

Kaufman- Only 41 below the 5A cutoff at 1189.

Chapel Hill and Kilgore are both well below the cutoff and very unlikely to move.

 

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No telling with us Mav. Literally no idea.

I think LV will have enough heads for 6A but the way they count students is weird.

There were 2300+ last alignment but around 150+ were what you call part time students...and you only count those partial...I believe that lowered the number down.

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2 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

Keep an eye on:

Tyler Legacy-  Lee's enrollment once hovered around 2600.  It now stands at 2304 and is only 85 from dropping to 5A Div I.  A small increase of the current cutoff of 2219 coupled with a drop next fall could reunite the Red Raiders will crosstown rival Tyler and longtime opponent Longview.

Highland Park- I'm including them since they are in the same district with Longview and Tyler... but the Scots are only 11 from the 6A bubble at 2209.

Longview-  The Lobos missed 6A Div II by only 34 students.  If UIL bumps the cutoff up, a return to 6A in 2022 seems unlikely.  But if it remains at 2220, it's definitely within reach at 2186.

Lufkin- Like Longview, the Panthers are close to the bubble at 2177, just 43 short of 6A Div I.

Tyler- The Lions appear to be pretty firm in 5A Div I barring a pretty big drop this fall.  They are at 2111, which is 90 above the 5A Div II cutoff.

Cleveland- Only 41 from the 5A Div II cutoff.  

Sherman- The Bearcats are most definitely on the bubble at 1951, just 30 above the 5A Div II cutoff.  An increase of almost any amount in the cutoff with a slight drop in enrollment could send them to the Greenville/Royse CIty district.

Royse City- At 1904, the Bulldogs are only 18 from the 5A Div I cutoff.

North Forney- at 1894 and growing (quickly), they are practically a lock for Div I in 2022.  28 away.

Texas High- Doesn't appear to be in the cards for a return to Div I as the Tigers are now 84 below the cutoff.

Nac- A dropping enrollment has the Dragons over 200 from Div I..... they aren't going anywhere...they are firmly in the middle of Div II.

Pine Tree-  The Pirates in 4A Div I?  Not as farfetched as you think.  PT sat at 1284 in 2020.  Only 85 above the 4A cutoff.

Jacksonville- Only 45 above the 4A Div I cutoff.

Sulphur Springs- Only 22 above the 4A Div II cutoff.

Lindale- Dropped from 5A to 4A in 2020.....but they were only 27 below the 5A mark.

Kaufman- Only 41 below the 5A cutoff at 1189.

Chapel Hill and Kilgore are both well below the cutoff and very unlikely to move.

 

 

 

If Sherman drops, I think they will go into 7-5A because of the pairing with Denison. I would assume they would kick Princeton into that district if they needed someone / then Lovejoy if they needed another.

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6 hours ago, ANTI said:

No telling with us Mav. Literally no idea.

I think LV will have enough heads for 6A but the way they count students is weird.

There were 2300+ last alignment but around 150+ were what you call part time students...and you only count those partial...I believe that lowered the number down.

I have a feeling we'll be 5A D1, personally. It all comes down to LEAD, which is how they counted them as half.

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7 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

Keep an eye on:

Tyler Legacy-  Lee's enrollment once hovered around 2600.  It now stands at 2304 and is only 85 from dropping to 5A Div I.  A small increase of the current cutoff of 2219 coupled with a drop next fall could reunite the Red Raiders will crosstown rival Tyler and longtime opponent Longview.

Highland Park- I'm including them since they are in the same district with Longview and Tyler... but the Scots are only 11 from the 6A bubble at 2209.

Longview-  The Lobos missed 6A Div II by only 34 students.  If UIL bumps the cutoff up, a return to 6A in 2022 seems unlikely.  But if it remains at 2220, it's definitely within reach at 2186.

Lufkin- Like Longview, the Panthers are close to the bubble at 2177, just 43 short of 6A Div I.

Tyler- The Lions appear to be pretty firm in 5A Div I barring a pretty big drop this fall.  They are at 2111, which is 90 above the 5A Div II cutoff.

Cleveland- Only 41 from the 5A Div II cutoff.  

Sherman- The Bearcats are most definitely on the bubble at 1951, just 30 above the 5A Div II cutoff.  An increase of almost any amount in the cutoff with a slight drop in enrollment could send them to the Greenville/Royse CIty district.

Royse City- At 1904, the Bulldogs are only 18 from the 5A Div I cutoff.

North Forney- at 1894 and growing (quickly), they are practically a lock for Div I in 2022.  28 away.

Texas High- Doesn't appear to be in the cards for a return to Div I as the Tigers are now 84 below the cutoff.

I think 7-5A D1 will definitely be different.

Longview and Tyler should stay there. I don't think Legacy is going to drop. If they were going to drop, it would've been this last go around.

But with Royse City and North Forney basically right there, and Sherman on the way out it feels...

Longview, Tyler, Royse City, North Forney, West Mesquite and Wylie East seems like a likely district. Whether Highland Park stays or moves up, they'd probably go back to just a DFW district. Question will be, does Denton Ryan stay Region II or move back to Region I?

Can't throw out the possibility of Lancaster getting added to our district either.

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Crandall is another school that effects the realignment, they had 1316 last count 86 over the threshold for 5a-D2. I suspect they will have  a higher number in 2022. They could affect the split of the east texas 5a district's as well.

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2 hours ago, LoboFan07 said:

I have a feeling we'll be 5A D1, personally. It all comes down to LEAD, which is how they counted them as half.

What I have found interesting, is Longview ISD has grown to 9000 kids. 

That number was 8,575 in 2019.

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3 hours ago, ANTI said:

What I have found interesting, is Longview ISD has grown to 9000 kids. 

That number was 8,575 in 2019.

Meanwhile PT is on a slow decline. 

I live in Longview. No kids.  But if I did... it would be a no-brainer for me where I’d send them. 

While LiSD has plenty of its own issues.... the opportunity to succeed is plentiful for an LHS student.  Just a matter of them choosing that path Vs the wrong one.   Unfortunately the ones that make the bad choice are the ones the community notices.  The excelling students don’t sell newspapers. 

It would be a punch in the gut to see my child graduate a Lobo 😂. But at least I’d know they were prepared to succeed at the next level of education. 

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1 minute ago, Mavchamp said:

Meanwhile PT is on a slow decline. 

I live in Longview. No kids.  But if I did... it would be a no-brainer for me where I’d send them. 

While LiSD has plenty of its own issues.... the opportunity to succeed is plentiful for an LHS student.  Just a matter of them choosing that path Vs the wrong one.   Unfortunately the ones that make the bad choice are the ones the community notices.  The excelling students don’t sell newspapers. 

It would be a punch in the gut to see my child graduate a Lobo 😂. But at least I’d know they were prepared to succeed at the next level of education. 

I haven't lived in Longview since damn near when I graduated HS but man....everytime I come back home... never fails to see something new built. Neighborhoods, businesses, roads...etc.

Part of the reason that I think PT is slightly declining is because majority, almost all of the new houses/apartments/neighborhoods in Longview are going up in the Longview (mainly), Hallsville (East Longview) and Spring Hill zones. 

I'm a bit of a geography nerd even though I tell aircraft what to do all day but, PT is also landlocked. They can't grow to the south and west because of floodplain (Sabine River)....and they also can't grow to the North and East because of the SH and LV zones. Wildwood is PT's biggest neighborhood (and its nice as hell btw) but even a chunk of that goes to Longview.

You're also correct too on Longview being a no brainer option for school. You always judge a school district based on the oppurtunities they provide...and LISD provides amazing oppurtunities. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, ANTI said:

I haven't lived in Longview since damn near when I graduated HS but man....everytime I come back home... never fails to see something new built. Neighborhoods, businesses, roads...etc.

Part of the reason that I think PT is slightly declining is because majority, almost all of the new houses/apartments/neighborhoods in Longview are going up in the Longview (mainly), Hallsville (East Longview) and Spring Hill zones. 

I'm a bit of a geography nerd even though I tell aircraft what to do all day but, PT is also landlocked. They can't grow to the south and west because of floodplain (Sabine River)....and they also can't grow to the North and East because of the SH and LV zones. Wildwood is PT's biggest neighborhood (and its nice as hell btw) but even a chunk of that goes to Longview.

You're also correct too on Longview being a no brainer option for school. You always judge a school district based on the oppurtunities they provide...and LISD provides amazing oppurtunities. 

 

 

Doesn’t seem like PT really invests in their schools. And it matters. 

Don’t believe it?  Marshall had a slow drop in enrollment for 15 consecutive years. 

They replaced every elementary school and built a new JH... now the HS is in the middle of a nearly $50 million (and counting) renovation.... 

Enrollment  has increased every single year since the schools opened in 2018.   Small increases (40-60ish)... but that’s huge after a decade and a half of decreases. 

PT needs to open the wallet. But given how hard it was to replace a nearly condemned stadium... doesn’t seem likely. 

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5 minutes ago, Mavchamp said:

Doesn’t seem like PT really invests in their schools. And it matters. 

Don’t believe it?  Marshall had a slow drop in enrollment for 15 consecutive years. 

They replaced every elementary school and built a new JH... now the HS is in the middle of a nearly $50 million (and counting) renovation.... 

Enrollment  has increased every single year since the s hooks opened in 2018.   Small increases (40-60ish)... but that’s huge after a decade and a half of decreases. 

PT needs to open the wallet. But given how hard it was to replace a nearly condemned stadium... doesn’t seem likely. 

Yep. That's another contributing factor. 

Probably why you also have an influx of districtwide PT to LV transfers. Before the pandemic started, LISD was averaging 200+ incoming transfers from PTISD. And even during the pandemic, 194 kids transferred from PTISD to LISD. 

Bottom line, other than growth, people are simply finding ways to get their kids in LISD schools. 

The weird part about all of this? PT has a slow decline in enrollment, but the talent appears to be on the rise in West Longview. 

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On the TEA enrollment site, they have the 20-21 enrollment data. (likely data from this past Oct)

Smith County:

Tyler High 2073

Legacy 2351

Chapel Hill 1077

Lindale 1207

Whitehouse 1535

 

Legacy will likely be 6a for a few more realignments.

Who knows what happens. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tyler fell to Div.2, but I think they are safe for Div.1

I think Lindale will stay down, and Jacksonville and SS may follow.  That would honestly be good for their football programs.

 

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5 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

We need some schools to become 4A-D2. 
 

5 team districts are stupid when you take four to the postseason.

5A DI needs something to happen...

Travel way worse for Longview fans than it was in 6A. 

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1 hour ago, JTFAN99 said:

.

Who knows what happens. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Tyler fell to Div.2, but I think they are safe for Div.1

 

Tyler High seems to be an up and down trend...with slight decline (2019 and 2020 lower than 2017 and 2018)

2020 - 2073

2019 - 2110

2018 - 2097

2017 - 2154

I didn't go beyond 2017 because I believe that was around the time that TISD stopped counting alternative enrollment toward JT/Lee. My guess is it goes back up in the fall...5A DI easy. 

 

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I could be wrong.... but how the TEA counts Enrollment is different than how the UIL calculates the ADM. 

Obviously those numbers SHoULD be ballpark-close.... but not necessarily the same.  

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Fantastic work, Mav. I believe ‘Jacksonville will drop to 4A D1. If the UIL continues to increase enrollment by 50 like they have over the last several realignments, ‘Jacksonville should drop. Our 2020 snapshot was below the number turned in for 2019. It’s time. I see us with Lindale, CH, Palestine, Henderson, Kilgore, and possibly Mabank, or Kaufman, or Terrell, or others like that on the borderline. 

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4 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

Doesn’t seem like PT really invests in their schools. And it matters. 

Don’t believe it?  Marshall had a slow drop in enrollment for 15 consecutive years. 

They replaced every elementary school and built a new JH... now the HS is in the middle of a nearly $50 million (and counting) renovation.... 

Enrollment  has increased every single year since the schools opened in 2018.   Small increases (40-60ish)... but that’s huge after a decade and a half of decreases. 

PT needs to open the wallet. But given how hard it was to replace a nearly condemned stadium... doesn’t seem likely. 

It is not always about facilities. JAX replaced all three K4s, redid the HS, added a $1.5m track at HS, Tomato Bowl redo.... passed every bond issue for last 5 years. People are not flocking to Jacksonville although our town / schools have added / improved a lot. We are low socioeconomic and I’m afraid that has kept people from coming here despite the upgrades. 

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20 minutes ago, Matt said:

Fantastic work, Mav. I believe ‘Jacksonville will drop to 4A D1. If the UIL continues to increase enrollment by 50 like they have over the last several realignments, ‘Jacksonville should drop. Our 2020 snapshot was below the number turned in for 2019. It’s time. I see us with Lindale, CH, Palestine, Henderson, Kilgore, and possibly Mabank, or Kaufman, or Terrell, or others like that on the borderline. 

4a would be good for Jacksonville. Competitive at least and could be underrated rival with Chapel Hill. Add Henderson and Kilgore and you get back to the good old days . 

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34 minutes ago, AllGoodNamesRGone said:

4a would be good for Jacksonville. Competitive at least and could be underrated rival with Chapel Hill. Add Henderson and Kilgore and you get back to the good old days . 

Agreed

4A D1 is a great fit for the Indians right now. It doesn't feel like they can compete in 5A D2 just based on numbers, among other things.

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1 hour ago, Matt said:

I see us with Lindale, CH, Palestine, Henderson, Kilgore, and possibly Mabank, or Kaufman, or Terrell, or others like that on the borderline. 

That district doesn’t really look much easier than the one you’re in now TBH.

Especially if Carthage was to end up back in 4A D1. 

 

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I also think seeing a split in other sports is coming too. The football districts will be the district for all sports. 

probably coming in alignment 2024. 

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