Ennis (8-0, 5-0) at Royse City (8-0, 5-0)

[micotrav]

Big game Friday night at Royse City ISD Stadium. Battle of the undefeated and both teams are shooting for a District Title! Ennis has been a choice team for the last two decades, now Royse City has regained an edge and is very hungry, not for just a playoff spot (already have that), but a distinct appetite for that District Championship. Your thoughts?

[regaleagle]

Okay......after watching some Recap clips of each team off MaxPreps, and then comparing team stats and offensive skill players for both teams,  it looks fairly close.  I do think the QB for Ennis has a better O-line that gives him more time in the passing game and helps open up more holes in their running game. RC tends to run the ball better overall, but their passing game is not vertical enough.  I think this is because the QB does not have as much time, so they use short passes and get the ball to their speedy backs and receivers in space, and then let those guys pick up the yardage in the open field in a one-on-one situation.  I like the Ennis QB better......both teams run a spread type offense, but RC tends to run more successfully from it in their version.  I think the defense for Ennis is also better and more experienced.......they have allowed quite a bit less points  iIn the season so far.  It should be a very back and forth offensive game, but I'm going with Ennis by only a TD.  Both teams will score at least 4-5 TD's.....IMO.  I think in the end, the QB for Ennis will be the difference with his arm and a better O-line to buy him the time he needs.

[RETIREDFAN1]

Ennis

[micotrav]

4 hours ago, regaleagle said:

Okay......after watching some Recap clips of each team off MaxPreps, and then comparing team stats and offensive skill players for both teams,  it looks fairly close.  I do think the QB for Ennis has a better O-line that gives him more time in the passing game and helps open up more holes in their running game. RC tends to run the ball better overall, but their passing game is not vertical enough.  I think this is because the QB does not have as much time, so they use short passes and get the ball to their speedy backs and receivers in space, and then let those guys pick up the yardage in the open field in a one-on-one situation.  I like the Ennis QB better......both teams run a spread type offense, but RC tends to run more successfully from it in their version.  I think the defense for Ennis is also better and more experienced.......they have allowed quite a bit less points  iIn the season so far.  It should be a very back and forth offensive game, but I'm going with Ennis by only a TD.  Both teams will score at least 4-5 TD's.....IMO.  I think in the end, the QB for Ennis will be the difference with his arm and a better O-line to buy him the time he needs.

Great assessment.  You have a lot of valid points.  I tend to disagree with the Quarterback comparison.  Ennis has an awesome QB and he is a tall and can view the open field with ease.  However, the mobility and athleticism of the Royse City QB tends to give this homer (Me), the idea that because of the RC QB, RC will have a slight edge. He is a twin and his twin brother is a force in himself as he plays Safety on Defense and also with athleticism. You can tell it is a genetics gift and what this gives is a double whammy of weekly dinner table correspondence.  Both are comparing film and one is reading the defense from an offensive perspective and the other is reading it from the defensive side of the game. But that is not just a convenience it adds to overall talent.  Ennis, by far, has the 'Mojo' going for them.  Highly ranked and respected throughout the state and they certainly deserve that attention. They have excellent talent in their Freshman receiver and the intensity of their game that is instilled by their legendary coach.  If Royse City can stop the Ennis run game, the Bulldogs win by a touchdown.  The Bulldogs have two of the most talented tailbacks in 5A football. But that is my very biased opinion and I highly respect your look into the depths of this very important game. Best of luck to both teams and hopefully it is won on the field with clean play and not the other way around. May the best be the result also be in the post season playoffs for both schools. Go Bulldogs!

[Monte1076]

I'm an Ennis Homer, so obviously I'm going with Ennis.

Ennis is averaging about 41 points scored per game, and Royse City is averaging 42.125, so Royse City has a slight advantage of 1.125 points there.

Ennis is allowing 18.373 points per game, average, and Royse City is allowing 25.25 points per game, so Ennis has a 6.877 point advantage there.

With those numbers, Ennis has an average margin of victory of 22.627 points. Royse City has an average margin of victory of 16.875 points.

I don't know exactly how "point spreads" are calculated, but I came up with a simple one, and have Ennis -9 (nine point favorite). Now, I don't know how accurate that is, as I just rectally sourced a formula, but essentially I gave Ennis 3 for being the home team (Home team usually gets 2.5 - 3.5 in point spreads, I believe), then I just took the points differentials, did a little math, and that's what I came up with. It's actually - 8.75, but I rounded up to 9.

We'll see Friday. I obviously hope Ennis wins by more. Close games always scare me, but this will, I believe, be for the District Championship and the #1 seed, as both teams already have their playoff berths.

[Footballobserver]

I'll be at this game.   Royse City for the upset.

[Monte1076]

EDIT:

This game is @ Royse City. So I have to revise my spread. I'm now saying Ennis -6 (six point favorite).

Another thing is, I wonder how much wind is going to be a factor in this one.

[Monte1076]

Ennis uncharacteristically with two turnovers in the first quarter. Then an offsides on a 4th & 8 that turns into a 4th & 3 that Royse City converts.

[Monte1076]

End 1st.

Ennis 7, Royse City 6.

[Monte1076]

At the half, Ennis 20, Royse City 6.

[Monte1076]

End 3rd. Ennis 34, Royse City 13.

[Monte1076]

Final.

Ennis 48, Royse City 20.

Both teams are in the playoffs, regardless of what happens next week. I believe Ennis will be the #1 seed.

[micotrav]

20 hours ago, Monte1076 said:

Final.

Ennis 48, Royse City 20.

Both teams are in the playoffs, regardless of what happens next week. I believe Ennis will be the #1 seed.

Best of luck to Ennis.  I was wrong with my biased point spread, but I was correct with my assessment of needing to stop the run, which we did not. That was the difference maker.  Ennis has a pretty good team and Royse City has played well this year.  Our program continues to build and having an 8-1 record this season certainly helps on confidence. The problem will be the District 7 matchup in the playoffs. With Lovejoy and Frisco being the top two seeds, they will disperse of District 8 with ease. Royse City must beat Forney this Friday to secure second place which will probably mean that Royse City would host Frisco Liberty in the first round....if Royse City can beat Forney.  Ennis would get Denison at Ennis. Forney would draw Frisco and either Corsicana or Crandall will be playing Lovejoy. Lovejoy will probably be a very good candidate for the State Champion this year. Aledo of course will have something to say about that, I look for Ennis to go out in the second round and the rest of District 8 would have a difficult time of advancing very far this year.  I don't think Ennis has the team they had last year when they played Aledo so well.  Just not the speed needed to get past a second round opponent. If Ennis were in District 7, they would at best be a third place finisher in that district. Royse City would have difficulty also, that is just the level of talent in that district this year. 

 

[Monte1076]

38 minutes ago, micotrav said:

Best of luck to Ennis.  I was wrong with my biased point spread, but I was correct with my assessment of needing to stop the run, which we did not. That was the difference maker.  Ennis has a pretty good team and Royse City has played well this year.  Our program continues to build and having an 8-1 record this season certainly helps on confidence. The problem will be the District 7 matchup in the playoffs. With Lovejoy and Frisco being the top two seeds, they will disperse of District 8 with ease. Royse City must beat Forney this Friday to secure second place which will probably mean that Royse City would host Frisco Liberty in the first round....if Royse City can beat Forney.  Ennis would get Denison at Ennis. Forney would draw Frisco and either Corsicana or Crandall will be playing Lovejoy. Lovejoy will probably be a very good candidate for the State Champion this year. Aledo of course will have something to say about that, I look for Ennis to go out in the second round and the rest of District 8 would have a difficult time of advancing very far this year.  I don't think Ennis has the team they had last year when they played Aledo so well.  Just not the speed needed to get past a second round opponent. If Ennis were in District 7, they would at best be a third place finisher in that district. Royse City would have difficulty also, that is just the level of talent in that district this year. 

 

Based on your note about the run defense, I thought we'd pass more. I didn't think we'd have as many rushing yards as we did.

We should be able to beat Corsicana. From what I understand, I could see that #4 seed in 7-5A going to three different teams, depending on what happens next week.

The team that worries me the most right now is Lovejoy.

[micotrav]

13 hours ago, Monte1076 said:

Based on your note about the run defense, I thought we'd pass more. I didn't think we'd have as many rushing yards as we did.

We should be able to beat Corsicana. From what I understand, I could see that #4 seed in 7-5A going to three different teams, depending on what happens next week.

The team that worries me the most right now is Lovejoy.

I agree with you again.  We must be seeing our District from the same vantage point. I think that Ennis will easily defeat Corsicana, Ennis just has too much talent and Corsicana is in a rebuilding mode....Ennis 56 Corsicana 13. Ennis will also breeze past Denison in the first round, I believe.

Royse City will not easily beat Forney, but the very young Royse City team has eight games under their belts now and that talent, that these very young players have, will help them get past a much improved Forney team...Royse City 31 Forney 24.  But Royse City will face an extremely good Frisco Liberty team in that first round.  Both Frisco and Frisco Liberty would be District Champions in most districts this year. But they have Lovejoy, so that "ain't good".  Royse City will have to really play well to be able to beat Frisco Liberty, but I believe Royse City can do it. 

Forney will draw a tough team as well in the first round of the playoffs.  Frisco returns a great team from last season and "Old Frisco", will end Forney's awesome 2021 season. 

 Greenville, Crandall and Corsicana are all holding their breath for that fourth playoff place.  But whoever gets that spot has to play Lovejoy and that "ain't good".  I believe Crandall beats Greenville, Corsicana loses to Ennis and they will be eliminated in the last game of the season. I think that Crandall will emerge from that to possibly regret having to play, in that first round of the playoffs, facing Lovejoy at Lovejoy. Crandall 46 Greenville 21.