Gunter vs. Scurry-Rosser

[wingtveer]

Thursday 7:00 @ mesquite memorial 

[BoyzNdaHood]

Gunter 

[wingtveer]

Gunter should roll in this one. Games will get tighter each week. Good health to all the teams throughout the playoffs. 

[wingtveer]

2 minutes ago, JETT said:

Gunter 

Hope Mr. JETT has been doing well!

[BoyzNdaHood]

1 minute ago, wingtveer said:

Hope Mr. JETT has been doing well!

All is well over on this side... 

[wingtveer]

If you look up scurry on the football Friday app you’ll see they can score some points. 

[Ballboy23]

Gunter rolls. 

[Guest Tiger03lb]

Gunter

[THEHARDWAY]

GT by a chunk

[2Punks]

I was reminded that district 8 swept district 7 in round 1 last year, I don’t think that will happen again this year. However, Gunter rolls.

[RETIREDFAN1]

Gunter

[Pax]

Gunter is scoring 50.8 per game against defenses that hold teams to 26.3 (24.6 more) and holding teams that score 31.6 per game to 8.9 (22.7 fewer).  Gunter swings their opponents out of their average game in their favor by 47.2 points per game. 

SR scores 42.2 per game against defenses that allow 33.0 per game (9.2 more) and hold teams that average 25.0 per game to 23.5 per game - so they typically allow teams to score what they normally score on average, so based on this, you can expect the Gunter offense to be able to do what they normally do.

While SR looks to be able to put up some points, they aren't really doing it against great defenses.  Gunter has played 4 teams that average 40 or more points per game, and they have given up a total of 39 points to these teams, so under 10 per game.  6 of those points were off a pick 6.  7 were from a turnover deep in their own territory.  Others were given up by backups late in the game.  Only 7 were given up by the starting defense that weren't the result of a turnover, so in 4 games, the starting defense has only given up 7 points when the offense doesn't give the opposing team a short field, so when Gunter protects the ball, the starting unit gives up an average of 1.8 per game to teams averaging 40 or more points per game.  That's some pretty stout defense.

Straight by the numbers, I get a Gunter win, 49-19 considering all games played.

If you only consider games for each team against opponents who average 35 or more points per game, Gunter is 6-0 - allowing 8.8 points per game to these teams (again - all but 14 points were vs backups).  Scurry Rosser is 0-4 in these games, allowing an average of 46.8 points per game to these teams.  Considering only those games against high-scoring offenses, the prediction is 63-12, Gunter.

If you only consider games for each team against opponents who give up fewer than 28 points per game, Gunter is 6-0, SR is 0-3.  The prediction based on these games is 65-13.

Scurry Rosser has not won a game against any opponent who averages more than 35 per game or gives up fewer than 28.  They are playing a team that averages over 50 and gives up fewer than 10.

Those are the numbers - my feelings about them are that this will be a typical game that is over by halftime.  Gunter rarely gets into the 60s, but not because they aren't able to, but because they let off the gas early.  My guess is this will be one of those 49-56 to 7-14 games, but most if not all Gunter points being scored in the first half while most if not all Scurry Rosser points are scored in the second half.

 

[wingtveer]

2 hours ago, Pax said:

Gunter is scoring 50.8 per game against defenses that hold teams to 26.3 (24.6 more) and holding teams that score 31.6 per game to 8.9 (22.7 fewer).  Gunter swings their opponents out of their average game in their favor by 47.2 points per game. 

SR scores 42.2 per game against defenses that allow 33.0 per game (9.2 more) and hold teams that average 25.0 per game to 23.5 per game - so they typically allow teams to score what they normally score on average, so based on this, you can expect the Gunter offense to be able to do what they normally do.

While SR looks to be able to put up some points, they aren't really doing it against great defenses.  Gunter has played 4 teams that average 40 or more points per game, and they have given up a total of 39 points to these teams, so under 10 per game.  6 of those points were off a pick 6.  7 were from a turnover deep in their own territory.  Others were given up by backups late in the game.  Only 7 were given up by the starting defense that weren't the result of a turnover, so in 4 games, the starting defense has only given up 7 points when the offense doesn't give the opposing team a short field, so when Gunter protects the ball, the starting unit gives up an average of 1.8 per game to teams averaging 40 or more points per game.  That's some pretty stout defense.

Straight by the numbers, I get a Gunter win, 49-19 considering all games played.

If you only consider games for each team against opponents who average 35 or more points per game, Gunter is 6-0 - allowing 8.8 points per game to these teams (again - all but 14 points were vs backups).  Scurry Rosser is 0-4 in these games, allowing an average of 46.8 points per game to these teams.  Considering only those games against high-scoring offenses, the prediction is 63-12, Gunter.

If you only consider games for each team against opponents who give up fewer than 28 points per game, Gunter is 6-0, SR is 0-3.  The prediction based on these games is 65-13.

Scurry Rosser has not won a game against any opponent who averages more than 35 per game or gives up fewer than 28.  They are playing a team that averages over 50 and gives up fewer than 10.

Those are the numbers - my feelings about them are that this will be a typical game that is over by halftime.  Gunter rarely gets into the 60s, but not because they aren't able to, but because they let off the gas early.  My guess is this will be one of those 49-56 to 7-14 games, but most if not all Gunter points being scored in the first half while most if not all Scurry Rosser points are scored in the second half.

 

Impressive pax.  do you have multiple computers going at once or take tons of time to break down each team?  Like I did, I just looked scurry up on the app and saw they could score points. Thank you for your insight and hard work. You have my vote to be the official Smoaky.com statistician my friend !!

[Pax]

10 minutes ago, wingtveer said:

Impressive pax.  do you have multiple computers going at once or take tons of time to break down each team?  Like I did, I just looked scurry up on the app and saw they could score points. Thank you for your insight and hard work. You have my vote to be the official Smoaky.com statistician my friend !!

I appreciate it!  It used to take a lot longer and be a lot more work, but I have gotten better at doing it quicker.  Obviously, the later in the year it gets, the more work there is because there are more games each team has played.  All the scores just come from MaxPreps, but yeah - by this time, each team has played around 10 games, and each of those opponents have played 10 games each, so you're looking at scores of around 200 games.  Like I said though, I have a pretty good system now I think.  I can get all the data organized in about 20-30 minutes, and then I can spend a little more time diving a bit deeper in some games, and filtering them in different ways.  I have all of these games boiled down to a single number I call "swing", and I think it's a pretty good indication of how good a team is that takes strength of competition into account.  It takes 10-20 minutes by this point in the season to get each team's "swing" number.  In this case, Gunter is a +47.2 and Scurry Rosser is a +10.7.  0 would be average.   It's interesting to me, so I don't think it's work.  If it wasn't fun, I wouldn't do it, but I still appreciate it!

[wingtveer]

17 minutes ago, Pax said:

I appreciate it!  It used to take a lot longer and be a lot more work, but I have gotten better at doing it quicker.  Obviously, the later in the year it gets, the more work there is because there are more games each team has played.  All the scores just come from MaxPreps, but yeah - by this time, each team has played around 10 games, and each of those opponents have played 10 games each, so you're looking at scores of around 200 games.  Like I said though, I have a pretty good system now I think.  I can get all the data organized in about 20-30 minutes, and then I can spend a little more time diving a bit deeper in some games, and filtering them in different ways.  I have all of these games boiled down to a single number I call "swing", and I think it's a pretty good indication of how good a team is that takes strength of competition into account.  It takes 10-20 minutes by this point in the season to get each team's "swing" number.  In this case, Gunter is a +47.2 and Scurry Rosser is a +10.7.  0 would be average.   It's interesting to me, so I don't think it's work.  If it wasn't fun, I wouldn't do it, but I still appreciate it!

And we appreciate you sir !!

[2Punks]

[2Punks]

GT is visitor

[wingtveer]

Can’t wait to get the playoffs kicked off and watch TPW do their thing !!

let’s go big blue !!!!

[alyssaB]

Gunter.

 

[mikehoncho]

Scurry Rosser sounds like a brand of Wine. 

[wingtveer]

29 minutes ago, mikehoncho said:

Scurry Rosser sounds like a brand of Wine. 

Lol. Maybe a flat champagne?

[SilkyJohnson]

Gunter by a lot. 

[wingtveer]

Game day!!  Let’s go Gunter. Get the TPW train rolling!!

[BarryGoldwater]

On 11/8/2021 at 4:16 AM, alyssaB said:

Gunter.

 

Sup girl? 

[BarryGoldwater]

Gunter by 2 30 packs.