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Covid Got Even Redder, Tragically


BarryLaverty

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The rate of death has been hugely significantly less in those states with higher vaccinated rates. They voted blue. 

 

(New York Times)

 

COVID Gets Even Redder

David Leonhardt

Mon, November 8, 2021, 1:13 PM

The gap in COVID’s death toll between red and blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point. (Getty Images) 

As 2020 wound down, there were good reasons to believe that the death toll during the pandemic’s first year might have been worse in red America. There were also good reasons to think it might have been worse in blue America.

Conservative areas tend to be older, less prosperous and more hostile to mask wearing, all of which can exacerbate the spread or severity of COVID-19. Liberal areas, for their part, are home both to more busy international airports and more Americans who suffer the health consequences of racial discrimination.

But it turned out that these differences largely offset each other in 2020 — or maybe they didn’t matter as much as some people assumed. Either way, the per capita death toll in blue America and red America was similar by the final weeks of 2020.

It was only a few percentage points higher in counties where Donald Trump had won at least 60% of the vote than in counties where Joe Biden crossed that threshold. In counties where neither candidate won 60%, the death toll was higher than in either Trump or Biden counties. There simply was not a strong partisan pattern to COVID during the first year that it was circulating in the United States.

Then the vaccines arrived.

They proved so powerful, and the partisan attitudes toward them so different, that a gap in COVID’s death toll quickly emerged.

The gap in COVID’s death toll between red and blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point.

In October, 25 out of every 100,000 residents of heavily Trump counties died from COVID, more than three times higher than the rate in heavily Biden counties (7.8 per 100,000). October was the fifth consecutive month that the percentage gap between the death rates in Trump counties and Biden counties widened.

Some conservative writers have tried to claim that the gap may stem from regional differences in weather or age, but those arguments fall apart under scrutiny. (If weather or age were a major reason, the pattern would have begun to appear last year.) The true explanation is straightforward: The vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing severe COVID, and almost 40% of Republican adults remain unvaccinated, compared with about 10% of Democratic adults.

Charles Gaba, a Democratic health care analyst, has pointed out that the gap is also evident at finer gradations of political analysis: Counties where Trump received at least 70% of the vote have an even higher average COVID death toll than counties where Trump won at least 60%.

As a result, COVID deaths have been concentrated in counties outside of major metropolitan areas. Many of these are in red states, while others are in red parts of blue or purple states, like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Virginia and even California.

This situation is a tragedy, in which irrational fears about vaccine side effects have overwhelmed rational fears about a deadly virus. It stems from disinformation — promoted by right-wing media, like Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News, the Sinclair Broadcast Group and online sources — that preys on the distrust that results from stagnant living standards.

A peak?

The future of COVID is uncertain, but I do think it’s possible that the partisan gap in COVID deaths reached its peak last month. There are two main reasons to expect the gap may soon shrink.

One, the new antiviral treatments from Pfizer and Merck seem likely to reduce COVID deaths everywhere, and especially in the places where they are most common. These treatments, along with the vaccines, may eventually turn this coronavirus into just another manageable virus.

Two, red America has probably built up more natural immunity to COVID — from prior infections — than blue America, because the hostility to vaccination and social distancing has caused the virus to spread more widely. A buildup in natural immunity may be one reason that the partisan gap in new COVID cases has shrunk recently.

Death trends tend to lag case trends by a few weeks, which suggests the gap in deaths will shrink in November.

Still, nobody knows what will happen next. Much of the recent decline in caseloads is mysterious, which means it may not last. And the immunity from vaccination appears to be much stronger than the immunity from infection, which means that conservative Americans will probably continue to suffer an outsized amount of unnecessary illness and death.

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9 hours ago, BarryLaverty said:

The rate of death has been hugely significantly less in those states with higher vaccinated rates. They voted blue. 

 

(New York Times)

 

COVID Gets Even Redder

David Leonhardt

Mon, November 8, 2021, 1:13 PM

The gap in COVID’s death toll between red and blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point. (Getty Images) 

As 2020 wound down, there were good reasons to believe that the death toll during the pandemic’s first year might have been worse in red America. There were also good reasons to think it might have been worse in blue America.

Conservative areas tend to be older, less prosperous and more hostile to mask wearing, all of which can exacerbate the spread or severity of COVID-19. Liberal areas, for their part, are home both to more busy international airports and more Americans who suffer the health consequences of racial discrimination.

But it turned out that these differences largely offset each other in 2020 — or maybe they didn’t matter as much as some people assumed. Either way, the per capita death toll in blue America and red America was similar by the final weeks of 2020.

It was only a few percentage points higher in counties where Donald Trump had won at least 60% of the vote than in counties where Joe Biden crossed that threshold. In counties where neither candidate won 60%, the death toll was higher than in either Trump or Biden counties. There simply was not a strong partisan pattern to COVID during the first year that it was circulating in the United States.

Then the vaccines arrived.

They proved so powerful, and the partisan attitudes toward them so different, that a gap in COVID’s death toll quickly emerged.

The gap in COVID’s death toll between red and blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point.

In October, 25 out of every 100,000 residents of heavily Trump counties died from COVID, more than three times higher than the rate in heavily Biden counties (7.8 per 100,000). October was the fifth consecutive month that the percentage gap between the death rates in Trump counties and Biden counties widened.

Some conservative writers have tried to claim that the gap may stem from regional differences in weather or age, but those arguments fall apart under scrutiny. (If weather or age were a major reason, the pattern would have begun to appear last year.) The true explanation is straightforward: The vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing severe COVID, and almost 40% of Republican adults remain unvaccinated, compared with about 10% of Democratic adults.

Charles Gaba, a Democratic health care analyst, has pointed out that the gap is also evident at finer gradations of political analysis: Counties where Trump received at least 70% of the vote have an even higher average COVID death toll than counties where Trump won at least 60%.

As a result, COVID deaths have been concentrated in counties outside of major metropolitan areas. Many of these are in red states, while others are in red parts of blue or purple states, like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Virginia and even California.

This situation is a tragedy, in which irrational fears about vaccine side effects have overwhelmed rational fears about a deadly virus. It stems from disinformation — promoted by right-wing media, like Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News, the Sinclair Broadcast Group and online sources — that preys on the distrust that results from stagnant living standards.

A peak?

The future of COVID is uncertain, but I do think it’s possible that the partisan gap in COVID deaths reached its peak last month. There are two main reasons to expect the gap may soon shrink.

One, the new antiviral treatments from Pfizer and Merck seem likely to reduce COVID deaths everywhere, and especially in the places where they are most common. These treatments, along with the vaccines, may eventually turn this coronavirus into just another manageable virus.

Two, red America has probably built up more natural immunity to COVID — from prior infections — than blue America, because the hostility to vaccination and social distancing has caused the virus to spread more widely. A buildup in natural immunity may be one reason that the partisan gap in new COVID cases has shrunk recently.

Death trends tend to lag case trends by a few weeks, which suggests the gap in deaths will shrink in November.

Still, nobody knows what will happen next. Much of the recent decline in caseloads is mysterious, which means it may not last. And the immunity from vaccination appears to be much stronger than the immunity from infection, which means that conservative Americans will probably continue to suffer an outsized amount of unnecessary illness and death.

You realize, Barry, that cases across the board (new cases, hospitalizations, deaths) have been trending DOWNWARD across the state the past few weeks, right?

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

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51 minutes ago, Monte1076 said:

You realize, Barry, that cases across the board (new cases, hospitalizations, deaths) have been trending DOWNWARD across the state the past few weeks, right?

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

Did you read the article? That was mentioned. It doesn't negate the higher case and death rate that occurred. 

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1 minute ago, BarryLaverty said:

Did you read the article? That was mentioned. It doesn't negate the higher case and death rate that occurred. 

It's a "look at all the dumb Republicans/Conservatives" article. And I don't see where it mentions cases trending downward in Texas. I read the article. Maybe I missed it.

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2 minutes ago, Monte1076 said:

It's a "look at all the dumb Republicans/Conservatives" article. And I don't see where it mentions cases trending downward in Texas. I read the article. Maybe I missed it.

A peak?

The future of COVID is uncertain, but I do think it’s possible that the partisan gap in COVID deaths reached its peak last month. There are two main reasons to expect the gap may soon shrink.

One, the new antiviral treatments from Pfizer and Merck seem likely to reduce COVID deaths everywhere, and especially in the places where they are most common. These treatments, along with the vaccines, may eventually turn this coronavirus into just another manageable virus.

Two, red America has probably built up more natural immunity to COVID — from prior infections — than blue America, because the hostility to vaccination and social distancing has caused the virus to spread more widely. A buildup in natural immunity may be one reason that the partisan gap in new COVID cases has shrunk recently.

Death trends tend to lag case trends by a few weeks, which suggests the gap in deaths will shrink in November.

 

And, you know, you who is vaccinated could occasionally call out your partisan friends for their bad choices. They will still like you, maybe. Or maybe they will primary you for having a different opinion. 

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6 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

And, you know, you who is vaccinated could occasionally call out your partisan friends for their bad choices. They will still like you, maybe. Or maybe they will primary you for having a different opinion. 

When was the last time you did that, Barry? Oh, wait...let me guess. your "partisan friends" always make the "good choices". Right?

Will you admit the mandates (which the Administration are claiming aren't really "mandates". If not, why use that word?) may very well be unconstitutional? And if these mandates are for the "greater good" and health of society, why can't (and why hasn't) the government mandated daily exercise and vegetable eating? Sounds like a pretty straightforward question to answer.

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17 minutes ago, Monte1076 said:

When was the last time you did that, Barry? Oh, wait...let me guess. your "partisan friends" always make the "good choices". Right?

Will you admit the mandates (which the Administration are claiming aren't really "mandates". If not, why use that word?) may very well be unconstitutional? And if these mandates are for the "greater good" and health of society, why can't (and why hasn't) the government mandated daily exercise and vegetable eating? Sounds like a pretty straightforward question to answer.

Vaccinations have been mandated for school children and in the work place for many years. They are not the same as recommending exercise and good nutrition.

Why can't you admit that it is all on the same crazy train track to attack the ones for Covid as those who don't even acknowledge the existence of Covid, of basic safety measures, that it is somehow about Trump defense and that it isn't rooted in science but used as a weapon in politics? The difference is with this tactic, lives have been lost in abundance needlessly, as people have been horribly misled. 

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3 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

Vaccinations have been mandated for school children and in the work place for many years. They are not the same as recommending exercise and good nutrition.

Why can't you admit that it is all on the same crazy train track to attack the ones for Covid as those who don't even acknowledge the existence of Covid, of basic safety measures, that it is somehow about Trump defense and that it isn't rooted in science but used as a weapon in politics? The difference is with this tactic, lives have been lost in abundance needlessly, as people have been horribly misled. 

image.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, BarryLaverty said:

Vaccinations have been mandated for school children and in the work place for many years. They are not the same as recommending exercise and good nutrition.

Why can't you admit that it is all on the same crazy train track to attack the ones for Covid as those who don't even acknowledge the existence of Covid, of basic safety measures, that it is somehow about Trump defense and that it isn't rooted in science but used as a weapon in politics? The difference is with this tactic, lives have been lost in abundance needlessly, as people have been horribly misled. 

Simple question, Barry: where's the line on mandates? And is it possible, just possible that the vaccine mandates are unconstitutional? Are you OK with the federal government doing something unconstitutional "for the greater good"?

Were we horribly misled under the food pyramid? That's not used anymore is it? Remember Obama's "food plate"? That had different things on it in different ratios, didn't it?

We know there's science behind exercise and good nutrition. And everyone being a healthy weight is good for society overall (less health issues, and so forth), so why not mandate those things?

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This is where the map of covid cases should be.  Most of them are out west now, and the Deep south hardly has any.  I'm still puzzled why Alaska has so many cases across the state.  I hope it doesn't hit the Eskimo/Inuit tribes, but it looks like it is.  

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