Jump to content

Gunter Tigers vs Millsap Bulldogs round 2 @ grapevine 7:00pm thursday


wingtveer
 Share

Recommended Posts

I think Millsap is more dangerous than last week's opponent because of their offense, particularly their running game. They have #8 that is chewing up chunks of yardage.  If Maxpreps is correctc he had 450 yards  last week.  Fortunately Gunter has been very tough against the run and very good defensively overall.  Millsap has been involved in some track meet football games and I believe they will have difficulty slowing down Gunter's offense.  I can see Millsap having some success offensively  but believe Gunter's great coaching staff will make any necessary adjustments and will pretty much shut it down.  Not saying Millsap is a one man team or one-dimensional (they have some passing stats) but for the most part any time you can point at something and say we have to take that away Gunter's defense has been successful.  We have learned that 6-5 teams can beat 11-0 teams, but I don't believe that will happen here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gunter comes in averaging 51.8 points per game against defenses that give up 26.3 per game.  This is 25.5 more points than teams give up on average.  Those teams are scoring 32.5 per game on average, and Gunter holds them to 8.7 per game - or 23.8 fewer points.  Total swing for Gunter is a +49.3.

Millsap is scoring 34.3 per game vs teams allowing 29.9 per game, or just 4.4 more points.  They allow 32.5 ppg to teams that only average 26.5 per game - or a full touchdown more than teams normally score.  Total swing for Millsap is a -1.7.  Millsap is racking up the offensive yardage for sure, but they aren't doing it against quality defenses that I can tell.

In their 11 games so far this season, only 3 times has Millsap held their opponents to fewer points than they average, and even those 3 games, they only held teams to very slightly below their average - allowing 6 to a team that averages 12.2 per game, 31 to a team averaging 34 a game, and then 32 to a team averaging 33.7 per game.  Other than those three games, Millsap is giving up 36 per game to teams that average 25 per game. 

The most high-scoring offense Millsap has seen all year is Santo - who averages 35.5 points per game, but is also averaging that in 2A D2.  Santo would also be the best defense Millsap has seen, but again - in 2A D2.  Against on-level competition, Millsap is scoring 34 per game against teams that give up 31 per game - and they are allowing 37 per game to teams that only score 28 per game. 

Prediction based on pure numbers : Gunter in a 58-12 win.

I feel like this will be another game that is over by the half.  High 40s to low 50s to just a score or two by the half.  Backups playing early if not the entire second half.

Offensive yardage numbers are indeed impressive for Millsap though - however, 91% of their offensive production comes from two players.  Total yards through 11 games is 6,012.  #1 (QB) has thrown for 3,137 yards and rushed for 502 yards.  #8 (RB) has rushed for 1,824 yards.  Gunter's defense is already extremely stout - it tends to be particularly greedy when one or two players account for 91% of the opponent's offensive production.  Hopefully, Gunter has an answer, and I think they will.  Shut down #1, and you cripple Millsap's offense.  Shut down #1 AND #8, and it will be an extremely long night for Millsap. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good analysis.  Millsap has not seen a team even close to Gunter.   I don't believe there are going to be any of those 80 yard runs with missed tackles that I see in the videos.  Nor do I think Millsap can slow down Gunter's offense that has similar stats (though spread over quite a number of players) against better competition.  In fact Gunter averages 9.7 yards per play compared to 9.3 for Millsap.  Again, different competition. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Ballboy23 said:

Gunter win 62-12. Halftime score was 62-0, running clock 2nd half. 

With JV and several from the freshman team playing second half. Clock started running in the second quarter. But Millsap did play hard and clean, never quit. Appreciate them, wish them all good things next season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...