Lower district places successful over 30% of games in round 1

[neveragain]

Each year before the bi-district round of the UIL state playoffs the question about the number of teams in the playoffs is brought up.  The reasoning behind having 4 teams from each district is to make sure that deserving teams assigned to a very difficult district will have a chance to advance even if their district record is not one of the top two in the strong district.

So, the stats from this year's first round are as follows:

5A D1: 25% of the 4th place teams won over a district champion.  25% of the 3rd place teams defeated a 2nd place team

5A D2: 12.5% of 4th place teams beat district champions. 43.75% of the 3rd place teams won.

4A D1: 31% of 4th place teams beat a champion.  37.5% of the 3rd place teams beat a 2nd place team.

4A D2: 12.5% of 4th place teams were succesful.  43.75% of 3rd place teams came out on top.

3A D1: No 4th place team beat a district champion.  43.75% of 3rd place teams won.

3A D2: 18.75% of 4th place teams advanced.  37.5% of 3rd place teams moved on.

2A D1: 6% of 4th place teams won.  37.5% of 3rd place teams advanced.

2A D2: 12.5% of champions lost.  31% of 3rd place teams beat the runnersup.

In 6A D1, 31% of the 2nd ranked teams won and in D2 the number of 2 seeds winning was 40%.

Overall, 5A and down saw 26% of the lower district places winning.  The lower ranked team won 31% of the time when all classes are considered.

*I'm not a math guy and I could've made a mistake or two in the calculations, but overall I think we can see that in a winner take all or two teams advancing we'd have about 30% of "deserving" teams sitting at home.

 

 

[Eagleborn]

Solid info. Appreciate the leg work.  

[Mr. P]

19 minutes ago, neveragain said:

Each year before the bi-district round of the UIL state playoffs the question about the number of teams in the playoffs is brought up.  The reasoning behind having 4 teams from each district is to make sure that deserving teams assigned to a very difficult district will have a chance to advance even if their district record is not one of the top two in the strong district.

So, the stats from this year's first round are as follows:

5A D1: 25% of the 4th place teams won over a district champion.  25% of the 3rd place teams defeated a 2nd place team

5A D2: 12.5% of 4th place teams beat district champions. 43.75% of the 3rd place teams won.

4A D1: 25% of 4th place teams beat a champion.  37.5% of the 3rd place teams beat a 2nd place team.

4A D2: 12.5% of 4th place teams were succesful.  43.75% of 3rd place teams came out on top.

3A D1: No 4th place team beat a district champion.  43.75% of 3rd place teams won.

3A D2: 18.75% of 4th place teams advanced.  37.5% of 3rd place teams moved on.

2A D1: 6% of 4th place teams won.  37.5% of 3rd place teams advanced.

2A D2: 12.5% of champions lost.  31% of 3rd place teams beat the runnersup.

In 6A D1, 31% of the 2nd ranked teams won and in D2 the number of 2 seeds winning was 40%.

Overall, 5A and down saw 25.7% of the lower district places winning.  The lower ranked team won 30.9% of the time when all classes are considered.

*I'm not a math guy and I could've made a mistake or two in the calculations, but overall I think we can see that in a winner take all or two teams advancing we'd have about 30% of "deserving" teams sitting at home.

Great research! 

[SilkyJohnson]

1 hour ago, neveragain said:

Each year before the bi-district round of the UIL state playoffs the question about the number of teams in the playoffs is brought up.  The reasoning behind having 4 teams from each district is to make sure that deserving teams assigned to a very difficult district will have a chance to advance even if their district record is not one of the top two in the strong district.

So, the stats from this year's first round are as follows:

5A D1: 25% of the 4th place teams won over a district champion.  25% of the 3rd place teams defeated a 2nd place team

5A D2: 12.5% of 4th place teams beat district champions. 43.75% of the 3rd place teams won.

4A D1: 25% of 4th place teams beat a champion.  37.5% of the 3rd place teams beat a 2nd place team.

4A D2: 12.5% of 4th place teams were succesful.  43.75% of 3rd place teams came out on top.

3A D1: No 4th place team beat a district champion.  43.75% of 3rd place teams won.

3A D2: 18.75% of 4th place teams advanced.  37.5% of 3rd place teams moved on.

2A D1: 6% of 4th place teams won.  37.5% of 3rd place teams advanced.

2A D2: 12.5% of champions lost.  31% of 3rd place teams beat the runnersup.

In 6A D1, 31% of the 2nd ranked teams won and in D2 the number of 2 seeds winning was 40%.

Overall, 5A and down saw 25.7% of the lower district places winning.  The lower ranked team won 30.9% of the time when all classes are considered.

*I'm not a math guy and I could've made a mistake or two in the calculations, but overall I think we can see that in a winner take all or two teams advancing we'd have about 30% of "deserving" teams sitting at home.

 

 

Love it. I wonder how this breaks down by region.

[neveragain]

I'm embarrassed to say that I couldn't resist checking the numbers after CDubya936 asked, so here is what I found.  Again, if there are mistakes they were inadvertent.

Here are the numbers for lower seeds winning per region/per class/per division:

6A D1-region 1-1/region 2-4/region 3-2/region 4-3

6A D2-region 1-4/region 2-4/region 3-3/region 4-2

5A D1-region 1-3/region 2-1/region 3-3/region 4-2

5A D2-region 1-2/region 2-2/region 3-2/region 4-3

4A D1-region 1-1/region 2-3/region 3-3/region 4-4

4A D2-region 1-4/region 2-1/region 3-1/region 4-2

3A D1-region 1-3/region 2-2/region 3-1/region 4-1

3A D2-region 1-2/region 2-2/region 3-2/region 4-3

2A D1-region 1-1/region 2-0/region 3-3/region 4-3

2A D2-region 1-1/region 2-1/region 3-3/region 4-2

 

 

 

[neveragain]

Four seeds beating one seeds:

5A D1

Burleson Centennial over Justin Northwest

Angleton over Friendswood

Georgetown over Dripping Springs

Eagle Pass Winn over San Antonio Highlands

5A D2

Barbers Hill over Fort Bend Marshall

Medina Valley over Mission Veterans' Memorial

4A D1

Kaufman over Dallas Carter

West Columbia over Houston North Forest

Beeville Jones over La Feria

Chapel Hill over Vidor

4A D2

Monahans over Lubbock Estacado

Port Isabel over Carrizo Springs

3A D1

None

3A D2

Ballinger over Crane

Stanton over Childress

Riesel over Van Vleck

2A D1

Schulenburg over Mason

2A D@

Wortham over Maud

Burton over Christoval

[neveragain]

Districts advancing all 4 teams to the second round:

6A-District 10 (Mesquite, Rockwall, Rockwall Heath, Tyler Legacy) District 21 (CE King, Summer Creek, North Shore, Atascocita) District 27 (Smithson Valley, East Central, New Braunfels, Cibolo Steele)

5A D1-District 4 (Midlothian, Mansfield Summit, Colleyville Heritage, Burleson Centennial) District 11 (Cedar Park, Pflugerville Weiss, Manor, Georgetown) 

5A D2-District 12 (Texas City, PNG, Crosby, Barbers Hill) District 15 (Floresville, Boerne Champion, Alamo Heights, Medina Valley)

4A D1-District 7 (Paris, Argyle, Melissa, Kaufman) District 12 (Stafford, Brazosport, West Columbia, El Campo) District 15 (Beeville Jones, Calallen, CC Miller, Port Lavaca Calhoun)

4A D2- District 16 (Rockport Fulton, Ingleside, Port Isabel, Sinton)

3A D1-None

3A D2-None

2A D1-District 13 ( Ganado, Flatonia, Schulenburg, Shiner)

2A D2-District 10 (Wortham, Mart, Chilton, Bremond)

 

Please let me know if you find mistakes (as if I had to ask).

  

Edited November 16, 2021 by neveragain

[Eagleborn]

54 minutes ago, neveragain said:

Four seeds beating one seeds:

5A D1

Burleson Centennial over Justin Northwest

Angleton over Friendswood

Georgetown over Dripping Springs

Eagle Pass Winn over San Antonio Highlands

5A D2

Barbers Hill over Fort Bend Marshall

Medina Valley over Mission Veterans' Memorial

4A D1

Kaufman over Dallas Carter

West Columbia over Houston North Forest

Beeville Jones over La Feria

4A D2

Monahans over Lubbock Estacado

Port Isabel over Carrizo Springs

3A D1

None

3A D2

Ballinger over Crane

Stanton over Childress

Riesel over Van Vleck

2A D1

Schulenburg over Mason

2A D@

Wortham over Maud

Burton over Christoval

Wasn’t Chapel Hill/Vidor a 1 vs 4?

[neveragain]

I made the correction to the Chapel Hill/Vidor game in the regional data and in 4's over 1's as well as the overall lower seeds/upper seeds stats.

 

[neveragain]

There are 40 undefeated teams remaining in the playoffs...two regions have 3 undefeated left.

There are 14 teams with losing records still remaining.  Some of them had major upsets to stay alive last week, but a few simply  had difficult non-district schedules with larger teams and once they started playing in district started winning.  I think the best way to determine a teams "legitimacy" in the playoffs is to look at the district record, not the non-district.

There is one 5-5 team remaining.

Once again, I did this quickly so I may have overlooked something...this is just for fun anyway.

 

[theprodigy]

Overall #1 seed (which is your district champs) verse your #4 seed 5A-2A was 111-17. Which means 4 seeds only won 6.6% of the games. 3 seeds had 51 wins which is 19.9%. Used to be the top 3 seeds went and before then the top 2. To me in my opinion the 4 seed will see an occasional upset or two but at 6.6% the four seed addition is just a way for more money to be brought in. 

[Mr. P]

1 hour ago, theprodigy said:

Overall #1 seed (which is your district champs) verse your #4 seed 5A-2A was 111-17. Which means 4 seeds only won 6.6% of the games. 3 seeds had 51 wins which is 19.9%. Used to be the top 3 seeds went and before then the top 2. To me in my opinion the 4 seed will see an occasional upset or two but at 6.6% the four seed addition is just a way for more money to be brought in. 

Not only that, but many of those games are such lopsided matchups that it's a needless risk of player safety. Go look at the scores of many of those games, you have teams leading by 50+ points at halftime? Ridiculous. 

[loveofthegame]

20 hours ago, neveragain said:

Districts advancing all 4 teams to the second round:

6A-District 10 (Mesquite, Rockwall, Rockwall Heath, Tyler Legacy) District 21 (CE King, Summer Creek, North Shore, Atascocita) District 27 (Smithson Valley, East Central, New Braunfels, Cibolo Steele)

5A D1-District 4 (Midlothian, Mansfield Summit, Colleyville Heritage, Burleson Centennial) District 11 (Cedar Park, Pflugerville Weiss, Manor, Georgetown) 

5A D2-District 12 (Texas City, PNG, Crosby, Barbers Hill) District 15 (Floresville, Boerne Champion, Alamo Heights, Medina Valley)

4A D1-District 7 (Paris, Argyle, Melissa, Kaufman) District 12 (Stafford, Brazosport, West Columbia, El Campo) District 15 (Beeville Jones, Calallen, CC Miller, Port Lavaca Calhoun)

4A D2-District 8 (Pleasant Grove, Pittsburg, Liberty Eylau, Gilmer) District 16 (Rockport Fulton, Ingleside, Port Isabel, Sinton)

3A D1-None

3A D2-None

2A D1-District 13 ( Ganado, Flatonia, Schulenburg, Shiner)

2A D2-District 10 (Wortham, Mart, Chilton, Bremond)

 

Please let me know if you find mistakes (as if I had to ask).

  

4A D2.  Liberty Eylau didn't advance....lost to Van 28-0.  Not hard to miss one though as much research as you've done....thanks!!

[neveragain]

Back in the 'good old days', there were 9-1 amd 8-2 teams staying home every year.  The current format works itself out after 1 week and I prefer to know that a 4th place team in a tough district was not penalized for being in a district of doom.  There are several 1st and 2nd place teams in the playoffs simply because of their geographic location/district alignment.  I don't think anyone is going to change their minds unless it benefits a team they support so I'm not going to argue about it.  My basic thought is that it doesn't hurt anyone to get a chance to prove themselves in the playoffs.

[theprodigy]

I can understand your point but in my opinion its the participation trophy mentality and it hurts today's society. If you want in the playoffs and your in a loaded district then get better. I understand that is harsh but its true. If you aren't the best 3 then sorry your not going to the playoffs. You will have to see those guys again in the 4th round anyways. You want in in a tough district than beat the guys in your district. Because loveofthegame said it very well. MAJORITY are lopsided victories and your just running the risk of injuries but we all have our own opinion

[mrclean69]

13 minutes ago, theprodigy said:

I can understand your point but in my opinion its the participation trophy mentality and it hurts today's society. If you want in the playoffs and your in a loaded district then get better. I understand that is harsh but its true. If you aren't the best 3 then sorry your not going to the playoffs. You will have to see those guys again in the 4th round anyways. You want in in a tough district than beat the guys in your district. Because loveofthegame said it very well. MAJORITY are lopsided victories and your just running the risk of injuries but we all have our own opinion

Heck why take 3 teams. 1 team only. No participation trophies for the 1st and second loser. 

[Mavchamp]

It boggles my mind people complain about more football. 

That’s like complaining about too much cake or too much ice cream or too much sex. 

Makes absolutely no sense to me.  At the end of the season I’ve never thought, “man I watched too many games this year”.  And neither does anyone else. 

Some people just aren’t happy if they aren’t complaining. 

[Nacwagons]

2 minutes ago, Mavchamp said:

It boggles my mind people complain about more football. 

That’s like complaining about too much cake or too much ice cream or too much sex. 

Makes absolutely no sense to me.  At the end of the season I’ve never thought, “man I watched too many games this year”.  And neither does anyone else. 

Some people just aren’t happy if they aren’t complaining. 

Yeah I don't get the complaint either, it helps schools with extra Money. It allows student athletes the extra time in a sport for kids. It allows marching band, drill teams and cheerleader one more performance. One poster on Fox Sports app called it "the wussification of the sport". I just don't get why people don't like the extra games and allow more programs to experience the playoff atmosphere.  

[player73]

One thing that wasn’t mentioned was when it was 3 teams, a lot coaches (District Champions) didn’t like having a bye.

[Mavchamp]

2 hours ago, Nacwagons said:

Yeah I don't get the complaint either, it helps schools with extra Money. It allows student athletes the extra time in a sport for kids. It allows marching band, drill teams and cheerleader one more performance. One poster on Fox Sports app called it "the wussification of the sport". I just don't get why people don't like the extra games and allow more programs to experience the playoff atmosphere.  

The ones complaining and calling people wusses and snowflakes are the ones in fact, being the snowflake.  They sound ridiculous with this endless moaning about something so trivial and unimportant in the grand scheme of things.  

Let’s pretend for a moment that it actually does water down the playoffs as much as they claim…. All it does is add ONE week to the playoffs.  ONE!!

One more week of stadium food. One more week of marching bands. One more week of not sitting at home on a Friday night. One more week of fan busses and caravans. One more week of road trips and crisp nights out in the air. 

Yeah.  That all sounds terrible. 

Go have seat somewhere, Gramps. Take your water pill and your blood pressure medicine. 

The rest of us still have some living to do. O

[Eagleborn]

Could always be worse. Lots of states use rankings like maxpreps or a committee to rank the teams and only take too 32 or whatnot. 

[Bulldogs12]

Take Chapel Hill for example 4aD1. Finished 4 seed in a tough district but was once ranked as high as 3rd in state. They have the talent to make a run in playoffs. Chapel Hill would likely have been 1 or 2 seed in most 4aD1 districts 

[mrclean69]

23 hours ago, player73 said:

One thing that wasn’t mentioned was when it was 3 teams, a lot coaches (District Champions) didn’t like having a bye.

People keep mentioning money and participation trophies. They forget the logic behind it. 1 seeds were getting a bye while 4th place teams were going home. UIL added a team and took out any doubt the best teams would be represented without adding any weeks to the schedule. 1 seeds stay in routine, and 4th place teams get their shot. 

[Vandalman]

 As an old man set in his ways I absolutely used to think that only the district champ should advance.  Even though I don't like the "everyone gets a trophy" mentality, as time passed I've started liking the 4 team playoffs. I mean from where I sit it just means more games I can watch lol. Ultimately the best team still gets the ring anyway.