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#1 Carthage vs. #5 China Spring


Carthage vs. China Springs  

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  1. 1. Who wins???


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20 minutes ago, upullinmychain said:

Gilmer now as opposed to gilmer when Dawgs played em is a different gilmer...and that is real,real...Gilmer now might give tha Dawgs a run for their money...Rematch at jerah house?🤷‍♂️

Doubtful what has changed? 

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31 minutes ago, bansheefan03 said:

Doubtful what has changed? 

2/3 of a season in mental growth,makes a difference for most teams 🤷‍♂️ still think the Dawgs would win,yall live in their head rent free and that's worth 7-10 points.but IMHO it would be a good game this go round if yall meet up later.

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10 hours ago, upullinmychain said:

Gilmer now as opposed to gilmer when Dawgs played em is a different gilmer...and that is real,real...Gilmer now might give tha Dawgs a run for their money...Rematch at jerah house?🤷‍♂️

Pipe dream…Gilmer has no answer for Carthage defense…if

gilmer makes it to ATT, they will get another runner up trophy

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14 minutes ago, Allheartnoquit said:

I am calling it right now for some reason I have China Spring winning in a low scoring game for these two storied programs.

 

I have no Dog in this fight just pure gut reaction;

 

CS 35

Carthage 31

Their is no way they score 35 on this Dawg D. 

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16 minutes ago, Allheartnoquit said:

I am calling it right now for some reason I have China Spring winning in a low scoring game for these two storied programs.

 

I have no Dog in this fight just pure gut reaction;

 

CS 35

Carthage 31

If they score 35, they are the best offense in 4A.

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10 hours ago, upullinmychain said:

2/3 of a season in mental growth,makes a difference for most teams 🤷‍♂️ still think the Dawgs would win,yall live in their head rent free and that's worth 7-10 points.but IMHO it would be a good game this go round if yall meet up later.

I hear what you are saying and understand the rationale. But the same thing was said last year when it came time for the state title game and also this year when they played in non district. “This isn’t the same Gilmer team. Gilmer has gotten so much better. Gilmer has closed the gap.” Then 70-14 happened in the title game and this year Gilmer was nearly shut out. They had one great play that was a desperate scramble to get off a pass and a fantastic catch by the receiver to score. 
 

Carthage has also gotten better and if they meet again I don’t think it will be 70-14, because that’s not the profile of this years Carthage, but I think it won’t be any closer than the game earlier this year. But Honcho could absolutely be wrong, we shall see. 

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21 minutes ago, Allheartnoquit said:

I think the CS D gonna get them a score don't think the offense can score 35 but with help from Defense and maybe a special teams score? WHo knows just got a feeling

10 of the 11 teams the Dawgs have faced managed 1 to 3 first downs in the first half. 7 of the teams could not reach 50 total yards rushing and 2 teams were minus rushing yards. 3 of the 11 managed to break a hundred yards passing. The only weakness in the Dawg D was the turnovers from the offense. That has been fixed (example) last weeks game. 
The Dawgs have played 3 very good defenses this year, Crosby a 5A team that is scoring 50 to 60 points a game deep in to the playoffs, Jasper which I think has the second best defense in 4A DII, and Gilmer. None of which held the Dawgs under 28 points, but only Crosby could manage 24 points against the Dawg D and that was due to many starters missing and 5 turnovers in the first half. 
Gilmer the number 2 team in the state averaging 50 points a game had minus 17 yards in the first half and only scored 7 points. 
The Dawg offense has gained their confidence (8 new starters including QB) and did not turn the ball over last week. The Dawgs no very well how good China Spring is and will be fired up and ready to rock and roll. 
I still say as good as the Dawg D is, we have not seen their best yet but I think we will see it Friday night. 

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1 hour ago, Allheartnoquit said:

I am calling it right now for some reason I have China Spring winning in a low scoring game for these two storied programs.

 

I have no Dog in this fight just pure gut reaction;

 

CS 35

Carthage 31

I’m all for an upset. I’m all for the Cougars giving Carthage a whale of a game. But nobody is scoring 35 points on the Dawgs. If you’re gonna beat Carthage this year, you’re gonna have to win an ugly defensive slobberknocker, and the score’s gonna need to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-10, 17-14, 10-7 or something crazy like that. Sounds outrageous in this day and age of high-scoring offenses, but you’re not gonna get in - much less win - a shootout with the Carthage defense.

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Really good teams with great defenses who both play well mean that 3 basic things determine who wins:

1) Turnovers

2) Big Plays

3) Special Teams

This is a bad matchup for Carthage style wise, but CS will have to be +2 in turnovers and score twice on defense or special teams to upset the Dawgs. Carthage defense is too good and well coached otherwise. If CS can’t figure a way to manufacture points… then it’s something like
 

Carthage 21

CS 6

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1 hour ago, buckeyefandom said:

Really good teams with great defenses who both play well mean that 3 basic things determine who wins:

1) Turnovers

2) Big Plays

3) Special Teams

This is a bad matchup for Carthage style wise, but CS will have to be +2 in turnovers and score twice on defense or special teams to upset the Dawgs. Carthage defense is too good and well coached otherwise. If CS can’t figure a way to manufacture points… then it’s something like
 

Carthage 21

CS 6

Bad matchup for Carthage style wise? Shoot, I think it’s a great matchup for Carthage style wise, especially what CS does offensively; Carthage has a defense that should thrive versus an offense like the Cougars run. 
On the other side of the ball, CS’s defense does not compare to that of Jasper. I feel Carthage will have to earn their points, and that they will put points on the board with the offense and the defense may also get a touchdown.

Go Dawgs!!!!!!!!!

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10 minutes ago, HearEmaGrowlin said:

Bad matchup for Carthage style wise? Shoot, I think it’s a great matchup for Carthage style wise, especially what CS does offensively; Carthage has a defense that should thrive versus an offense like the Cougars run. 
On the other side of the ball, CS’s defense does not compare to that of Jasper. I feel Carthage will have to earn their points, and that they will put points on the board with the offense and the defense may also get a touchdown.

Go Dawgs!!!!!!!!!

I tend to agree that Carthage D matches up better vs China Spring O than China Spring D vs Carthage O.

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1 hour ago, buckeyefandom said:

Really good teams with great defenses who both play well mean that 3 basic things determine who wins:

1) Turnovers

2) Big Plays

3) Special Teams

This is a bad matchup for Carthage style wise, but CS will have to be +2 in turnovers and score twice on defense or special teams to upset the Dawgs. Carthage defense is too good and well coached otherwise. If CS can’t figure a way to manufacture points… then it’s something like
 

Carthage 21

CS 6

I think this is style matchup benefits Carthage! Qb’s who like to run and offenses that like to run the QB have had ZERO success against Carthage this year. Bowden is not going to get to run like he’s used to and CS will struggle without that. I do think your score could be pretty close if Carthage offense does not play clean and CS defense is as good as advertised.

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Context fellas.  Context.

By MATCHUP IN STYLES, I mean you two teams whose strength is their defense. Both will run the ball and the game will likely be over in 2 hours (and change) with only 100 or less total plays. This means that big plays on special teams and turnovers will have an even more significant impact on the game.

If you read the post, that is my point. If Carthage is “vulnerable” at all this year, it will be from one or two “style matchups”

1) From an opponent with a great defense, the formula is to shorten the game, posses the ball, and then hit a Pic 6, a kick return, block a punt, or otherwise manufacture a TD or two and win a 22-21 type game.  That is the type of team CS is. So it is a bad matchup for Carthage style wise.

2) A team that can score early and often and jump out to a 2-3 TD lead and then “hold serve” and win a 42-35 type game. (Not likely from anyone they’ll face until the finals, then Gilmer will try again).

What Carthage has this year is a great defense, and an really good offense. They match up very well against teams whose strength is offense, but whose defense cannot get them off the field in 3rd downs. Offensive teams need the ball to jump out to a 2-3 score lead, and then they need to be able to run the ball and move the chains to hold serve. That is really, really hard against that Dawg defense on either front. But when the other team also has a great defense, then the game gets into a 3 and out tennis match. Meaning more kicking game. Meaning more opportunities for turnovers and big plays.

Which was the point to my post. Nobody is saying CS is a match for Carthage. I am simply saying the style of play from CS shortens the game and amplifies mistakes in areas where Carthage is not as dominant.  That is by definition a bad style matchup.

 

 

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If the wind is not blowing like crazy and C S runs the same scheme against the spread as they ran last week, Carthage will throw probably 70% of the time - at least until they have a comfortable lead............It won't be all long passes, but the ball will be in the air unless C S changes

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