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#3 Celina vs #2 Gilmer - Friday Dec. 10, @ 7p in Prosper


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Semifinals  

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  1. 1. Who Ya Got?

    • Celina Bobcats (12-1)
    • Gilmer Buckeyes (13-1)

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  • Poll closed on 12/11/2021 at 01:00 AM

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Not being able to finish drives is what ultimately did Pleasant Grove in last week. The Hawks were able to run the football almost at will between the 10-20-yard lines. But once they got down near the goal line, they just couldn't quite get it done. That's where being young and an overall inability to be diverse in their play calling really hurt them. Celina's offense won't have that problem. They'll have to rise up in those big moments and finish those drives.

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6 hours ago, d0tc0m said:

Not being able to finish drives is what ultimately did Pleasant Grove in last week. The Hawks were able to run the football almost at will between the 10-20-yard lines. But once they got down near the goal line, they just couldn't quite get it done. That's where being young and an overall inability to be diverse in their play calling really hurt them. Celina's offense won't have that problem. They'll have to rise up in those big moments and finish those drives.

Gilmer has been very stingy in the redzone all year long, especially in the playoffs.

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On 12/7/2021 at 4:53 PM, buckeyefandom said:

Good stuff indeed!  Much appreciated. From what I have seen on film for Celina (Argyle and Melissa games included… but they were very early in the season) It seems the Celina QB can throw from a clean pocket pretty well. But it makes sense now that you say he is a baseball player. Once Argyle got pressure and he started turning it over, Celina closed ranks and went to a straight power running game… lead left and lead right out of that 3 back set they run to the power side of an unbalanced line. That is just smash mouth football, and if I was Celina that is what I would use as my first line of defense, keeping Gilmer’s offense off the field by running clock and moving chains. If Celina does that, they need to keep it a 1 score game at least and stay out of catch-up mode. 

I do think Celina can throw the ball against Gilmer if the QB has time, but I would think that would be only in “have to” situations. And the more they have to, the more the game tilts towards a shootout.  That favors Gilmer. It is “pick your poison” trying to stop Gilmer’s offense. I don’t think this will be the best defense Gilmer has faced. But that is not saying Celina doesn’t have a good defense. I just don’t think Celina has faced an offense like Gilmer. Winning the battle in the trenches is a threat to Gilmer if it keeps the ball out of the offense’s hands and limits the possessions. 

Let’s just say the more Celina can run the ball and move the clock, the better chance they have to win. If Gilmer gets the ball (coin flips, turnovers, special teams, etc.) I don’t think Celina will stop Gilmer from scoring. So for me it comes down to the same old story we have always seen back to 2003. Can Celina keep Gilmer’s offense off the field. That seems to be the strategic formula Celina should follow. Gilmer has won 95% of their games since 2000 when scoring 30+ points. Less than that they are .500. I think that is the real “game” for any team left that can beat Gilmer. 

That 2014 could score against anybody at any time. That was their best defense as well. Even in the 2014 State Championship game, WOS played a perfect first half and limited Gilmer’s opportunities. In the second half, adjustments were made defensively and WOS collapsed. This year’s offense for Gilmer is very comparable. No knock on Carter or KB or Blake or anyone on that team. Obviously it was loaded talent wise. But Gilmer leaned a lot on that talent then and was fortunate nobody ran out of gas beyond the “Big 3”. This year the talent levels and speed are comparable, and spread a lot wider and deeper throughout the entire roster. In 2014 you could point to 4 guys and say “D1 Talent”.  In 2021 you can point to more than that, but they are not all Srs. 

No question the water is as deep as the Buckeyes will see it with Celina and then whoever is next if Gilmer wins. But the Carthage teams Gilmer faced last year outmatched Gilmer on every front. The Carthage defense and team they played this year did not overmatch Gilmer. But they did outplay the Buckeyes for 3 quarters. And I can’t see that Celina, even playing Argyle saw the same caliber of speed and athleticism Carthage or Gilmer or WOS rolls out. Not the film I watched. I think Celina even had issues with Paris athletically, they just were not skilled enough as a team to score consistently on Celina. 

Regardless, the information is outstanding and highly appreciated! And I agree 100% with your assessment of it coming down to Celina winning in the trenches enough offensively to eat so much time they limit Gilmer’s snaps. PG is a “power team” that has seen a lot of Gilmer the past 5 years and figured out the formula for beating Gilmer. Last week they held Gilmer to 36 total offensive plays and won ToP 3:1. But the score was 22-0 at the half and the game was over. PG is huge (bigger than Celina) and very athletic. But I think Celina is a much deeper, better and more complete football team right now than PG. It will be interesting to see if Celina commits to ground and pound or tries to go toe to toe with the Buckeye offense. I think both teams on the other side of the bracket are rooting hard for Celina to win. All the “C Teams” left play the same style as Celina. That is what makes watching Gilmer compete against the best teams in the state with their philosophy so interesting. 

MikeHoncho… this is the internet. Works like your TV. If you don’t like what’s on, just change the channel. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Rightly said, for Celina to win, they will need to make the most of their opportunities, get a few turnovers and limit Gilmer’s possessions. They also need to have a Grey start and play from in front on the scoreboard and ground and pound.

For Gilmer, they need to do what the 2014 bunch did and have the great start (winning the coin flip wouldn’t hurt) and get out to at least a 3 drive 1st quarter, scoring on 2 of them. If Gilmer gets a 2 possession lead, Celina is going to feel pressure to throw and get back in it. They should avoid that temptation until they absolutely have no choice.

It’s the semis! This is why they play them on the field!

Some novels are shorter than these posts. They run on and on, and on a on adnauseum.  Or are least it seems that way. But I am pulling for our east Texas boys to bring home a championship.  

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Just now, buckeyefandom said:

Everybody is ready to roll in Tater Town.

Good! Hope it stays that way through the whole game for both teams, win or lose! Y'all Gilmer fans be safe coming over to Collin County tomorrow. Traffic will be pretty wild, so if you plan on seeing kickoff, LEAVE GILMER EARLIER THAN YOU THINK! Sorry y'all gotta come so far, but at least it's a heck of a facility. I know y'all got to experience it last season as well.

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23 hours ago, d0tc0m said:

Gilmer is the most explosive offense, let's be sure. Their system is built on scoring in as few plays as possible and scoring in bunches. It's hard to stop. Their route concepts are a thing of beauty to watch. But it all goes awry, as do most offenses, when you get pressure on and contain the QB. Celina HAS to do that on Friday. Full stop. Only one team has done it successfully this season. Bobcats will hope to be No. 2 on that list.

When they get chances, Celina will have to capitalize. Like any team that plays Gilmer, you can ill afford to drive into the red zone and come away empty handed. You must sustain drives and you must get points. Bobcats have an otherwordly kicker, so it won't take too much real estate on the Buckeyes end of the field to come away with at least 3 points. But it'll take more than that to win, obviously.

There are going to be some downright nasty battles in the trenches on Friday, I can guarantee that. If hard-hitting, big-heavies pushing each other around isn't your thing, best stay home, because that's where this game is going to be won or lost.

This game should be fantastic.  

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3 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

This game should be fantastic.  

Boy, I sure do hope so! It's been a year in the making. And honestly, were it not for a fluke Hail Mary from Graham last season, this matchup would've happened in 2020 too.

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2 minutes ago, WiseGuy said:

Haven't watched any video on Celina until today... they have some monsters on the o-line.

Wish I could make this game tomorrow night

Their whole freakin team is huge.  And fast… their RB is a stud too

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On 12/4/2021 at 12:27 AM, buckeyefandom said:

We have seen this movie. Celina has not seen the speed and athleticism they will get from Gilmer. If the Bobcats think they can play press man and bring heat, they will be watching the backs of Buckeye jerseys running by them all night. They are well coached.  They know #11 can carve them up in straight man. Especially with his feet. So they will play 2 safeties over the top and hope to contain Gilmer’s running game with 6 in the box. What they had better not forget is that 11 can RUN as well as the backs.

Celina will do what they do and pound the rock. The Black Flag has got to get Celina off the field and create some turnovers. Celina’s QB does not like pressure (see the Argyle game). But the Cats can ground and pound with that huge O-Line. They will also play action over the top and throw deep on Gilmer outside, but they may quickly realize (like Van did) that Gilmer’s corners may not necessarily be the ones against they have seen on film.

Gilmer wants a track meet. Celina wants a ground war. Historically, Celina has struggled containing the speed and athletes. The Buckeyes have embarrassed Celina a few times and posted some lop-sides scores. But when Celina has gotten Gilmer into a grind it out game, their discipline and execution has allowed them to pull it out.

I think the difference in this game is turnovers and QB play. #11 for the Buckeyes shows why he is a D1 QB in this one, and takes his team to a second straight appearance at Jerryland:

Celina 35

Gilmer 43

Good analysis, brother.

Thanks

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