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State semi-finals #2 Gunter Tigers 14-0 vs #7 Lubbock Roosevelt 14-0


wingtveer
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Semifinals  

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  1. 1. Who Ya Got?

    • Roosevelt Eagles
    • Gunter Tigers

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  • Poll closed on 12/11/2021 at 01:00 AM

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  • wingtveer changed the title to State semi-finals Gunter Tigers 14-0 vs Lubbock Roosevelt 14-0
  • Crawford changed the title to State semi-finals #2 Gunter Tigers 14-0 vs #7 Lubbock Roosevelt 14-0

Gunter is scoring 52.1 per game vs defenses that give up 26.3 per game (+25.8).  Gunter is holding teams that score 32.8 per game to 10.1 per game (+22.6).  Overall swing for Gunter is +48.4.

Roosevelt is scoring 49.9 per game against teams giving up 26.1 per game (+23.9) and allowing 11.2 per game to teams that average 26.9 ppg (+15.7).  Total swing for Roosevelt is +39.6.

Based on all games played, I get a Gunter win, 37-31.

On paper, Gunter and Roosevelt have a comparable defense.  Both holding teams to around 10 points a game, but Roosevelt hasn't played near as many teams that can score a lot of points.  As you filter out games based on how much the opponents score, Gunter's defensive stats get better - while Roosevelt's get worse.  For example, when you only consider opponents of each team that score 35 or more points on average, Roosevelt allows 26.3 ppg to these teams, while Gunter allows 9.6 ppg.  And even then, the majority of those points were allowed by backups for Gunter.  The actual defensive swing (the difference between what those teams average and what your team holds those teams to) for opponents that average 35 or more points is only 12.7 for Roosevelt, but 30.6 for Gunter.  In other words, if you only consider opponents that score over 35 points per game on average, Roosevelt only holds those teams to 12.7 fewer points than their average while Gunter holds them to 30.6 fewer.  The point being, Gunter's defense is limited by the competency of the offense they are playing.  The better the offense, the better the defensive numbers look.  For Roosevelt, it's just what you expect from a good - but not great or elite defense. 

Roosevelt has thrown for a grand total of 121 yards passing on the entire season (14 games).  They have made 16 attempts the entire season (completing only 8 passes in 14 games), so they are decidedly one-dimensional.  This does not seem like the type of offense that could have success against Gunter.  We shall see.

When I consider only games against opponents who score over 35 points per game, I get a Gunter win, 51-14.  If I only consider games against opponents with defenses that allow 20 or fewer points per game, I get a Gunter win, 48-8.

I predict a game similar to the Holliday game.  2-4 scores in favor of Gunter.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Pax said:

Gunter is scoring 52.1 per game vs defenses that give up 26.3 per game (+25.8).  Gunter is holding teams that score 32.8 per game to 10.1 per game (+22.6).  Overall swing for Gunter is +48.4.

Roosevelt is scoring 49.9 per game against teams giving up 26.1 per game (+23.9) and allowing 11.2 per game to teams that average 26.9 ppg (+15.7).  Total swing for Roosevelt is +39.6.

Based on all games played, I get a Gunter win, 37-31.

On paper, Gunter and Roosevelt have a comparable defense.  Both holding teams to around 10 points a game, but Roosevelt hasn't played near as many teams that can score a lot of points.  As you filter out games based on how much the opponents score, Gunter's defensive stats get better - while Roosevelt's get worse.  For example, when you only consider opponents of each team that score 35 or more points on average, Roosevelt allows 26.3 ppg to these teams, while Gunter allows 9.6 ppg.  And even then, the majority of those points were allowed by backups for Gunter.  The actual defensive swing (the difference between what those teams average and what your team holds those teams to) for opponents that average 35 or more points is only 12.7 for Roosevelt, but 30.6 for Gunter.  In other words, if you only consider opponents that score over 35 points per game on average, Roosevelt only holds those teams to 12.7 fewer points than their average while Gunter holds them to 30.6 fewer.  The point being, Gunter's defense is limited by the competency of the offense they are playing.  The better the offense, the better the defensive numbers look.  For Roosevelt, it's just what you expect from a good - but not great or elite defense. 

Roosevelt has thrown for a grand total of 121 yards passing on the entire season (14 games).  They have made 16 attempts the entire season (completing only 8 passes in 14 games), so they are decidedly one-dimensional.  This does not seem like the type of offense that could have success against Gunter.  We shall see.

When I consider only games against opponents who score over 35 points per game, I get a Gunter win, 51-14.  If I only consider games against opponents with defenses that allow 20 or fewer points per game, I get a Gunter win, 48-8.

I predict a game similar to the Holliday game.  2-4 scores in favor of Gunter.

 

 

As always, @Pax, good analysis. Thank you!

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7 hours ago, Pax said:

Gunter is scoring 52.1 per game vs defenses that give up 26.3 per game (+25.8).  Gunter is holding teams that score 32.8 per game to 10.1 per game (+22.6).  Overall swing for Gunter is +48.4.

Roosevelt is scoring 49.9 per game against teams giving up 26.1 per game (+23.9) and allowing 11.2 per game to teams that average 26.9 ppg (+15.7).  Total swing for Roosevelt is +39.6.

Based on all games played, I get a Gunter win, 37-31.

On paper, Gunter and Roosevelt have a comparable defense.  Both holding teams to around 10 points a game, but Roosevelt hasn't played near as many teams that can score a lot of points.  As you filter out games based on how much the opponents score, Gunter's defensive stats get better - while Roosevelt's get worse.  For example, when you only consider opponents of each team that score 35 or more points on average, Roosevelt allows 26.3 ppg to these teams, while Gunter allows 9.6 ppg.  And even then, the majority of those points were allowed by backups for Gunter.  The actual defensive swing (the difference between what those teams average and what your team holds those teams to) for opponents that average 35 or more points is only 12.7 for Roosevelt, but 30.6 for Gunter.  In other words, if you only consider opponents that score over 35 points per game on average, Roosevelt only holds those teams to 12.7 fewer points than their average while Gunter holds them to 30.6 fewer.  The point being, Gunter's defense is limited by the competency of the offense they are playing.  The better the offense, the better the defensive numbers look.  For Roosevelt, it's just what you expect from a good - but not great or elite defense. 

Roosevelt has thrown for a grand total of 121 yards passing on the entire season (14 games).  They have made 16 attempts the entire season (completing only 8 passes in 14 games), so they are decidedly one-dimensional.  This does not seem like the type of offense that could have success against Gunter.  We shall see.

When I consider only games against opponents who score over 35 points per game, I get a Gunter win, 51-14.  If I only consider games against opponents with defenses that allow 20 or fewer points per game, I get a Gunter win, 48-8.

I predict a game similar to the Holliday game.  2-4 scores in favor of Gunter.

 

 

Great job Pax !!  I think Gunter will win by at least 17 points. It will be a lot more if Gunter shuts their run game down and demoralizes them since they are one dimensional.  I can’t see them stopping Gunter’s offense. 
31-14 TPW

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It is intresting trying to break down a game by stats. Here is one for you. Lubbock Roosevelt is the #3 rushing offense in the nation with the Flexbone Offense. And #12 in the nation in scoring offense all divisions. The team they beat last week, Abernathy was the #3 passing offense in 3 2A. And the #6 scoring offense that was held to 14 points in the second meeting of the year. It's very difficult to prepare for the Flexbone in a week. It is hard to score when the other team holds on to the ball most of the game. The key to the game is big plays and turn overs. Whom ever stops the big plays and holds on to the ball wins the game. What do I know, I'm just a sports photographer.

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6 minutes ago, PSR01 said:

It is intresting trying to break down a game by stats. Here is one for you. Lubbock Roosevelt is the #3 rushing offense in the nation with the Flexbone Offense. And #12 in the nation in scoring offense all divisions. The team they beat last week, Abernathy was the #3 passing offense in 3 2A. And the #6 scoring offense that was held to 14 points in the second meeting of the year. It's very difficult to prepare for the Flexbone in a week. It is hard to score when the other team holds on to the ball most of the game. The key to the game is big plays and turn overs. Whom ever stops the big plays and holds on to the ball wins the game. What do I know, I'm just a sports photographer.

How do you get your stats

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1 hour ago, PSR01 said:

It is intresting trying to break down a game by stats. Here is one for you. Lubbock Roosevelt is the #3 rushing offense in the nation with the Flexbone Offense. And #12 in the nation in scoring offense all divisions. The team they beat last week, Abernathy was the #3 passing offense in 3 2A. And the #6 scoring offense that was held to 14 points in the second meeting of the year. It's very difficult to prepare for the Flexbone in a week. It is hard to score when the other team holds on to the ball most of the game. The key to the game is big plays and turn overs. Whom ever stops the big plays and holds on to the ball wins the game. What do I know, I'm just a sports photographer.

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1 hour ago, PSR01 said:

It is intresting trying to break down a game by stats. Here is one for you. Lubbock Roosevelt is the #3 rushing offense in the nation with the Flexbone Offense. And #12 in the nation in scoring offense all divisions. The team they beat last week, Abernathy was the #3 passing offense in 3 2A. And the #6 scoring offense that was held to 14 points in the second meeting of the year. It's very difficult to prepare for the Flexbone in a week. It is hard to score when the other team holds on to the ball most of the game. The key to the game is big plays and turn overs. Whom ever stops the big plays and holds on to the ball wins the game. What do I know, I'm just a sports photographer.

Every school doesn't report to Max Preps so it's not truly accurate. 

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4 hours ago, Pax said:
5 hours ago, PSR01 said:

It is intresting trying to break down a game by stats. Here is one for you. Lubbock Roosevelt is the #3 rushing offense in the nation with the Flexbone Offense. And #12 in the nation in scoring offense all divisions. The team they beat last week, Abernathy was the #3 passing offense in 3 2A. And the #6 scoring offense that was held to 14 points in the second meeting of the year. It's very difficult to prepare for the Flexbone in a week. It is hard to score when the other team holds on to the ball most of the game. The key to the game is big plays and turn overs. Whom ever stops the big plays and holds on to the ball wins the game. What do I know, I'm just a sports photographer.

Through 13 games Gunter was averaging 507 yards per game - 388 rushing and 119 passing.  This is more yards per game than Maxpreps was showing for Roosevelt.  Gunter doesn't post stats on Max Preps.   These Gunter stats come from the Sherman newspaper the Herald Democrat and they are complete and well represented on this board.  Maxpreps shows Roosevelt with 439 yards per game through 14 games 430 rushing and 9 passing.  Gunter has gone against all the various running offenses - flexbone, slot T, Wing T, etc. with great success.  If you have Waskom's athletes I would be more concerned about that than the scheme.  We shall see if that is the case.  The coaching staff knows how to play assignment football and stuff the dive while having the pitch man covered.  The QB will get his own special treatment.  Roosevelt looks to be very good and by no means is Gunter guaranteed to win. But this will be the best defense Roosevelt has faced I believe.  There is some flexbone in Gunter's own offense that they see every day.

FYI Gunter has also scored more points and given up fewer points than Roosevelt.

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