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#2 Gunter vs #1 Franklin 3A Div II State Championship


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State Championship  

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  1. 1. Who Ya Got?

    • Gunter Tigers (15-0)
    • Franklin Lions (15-0)

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  • Poll closed on 12/17/2021 at 01:00 AM

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This is a tough one. Both teams equal in speed. Franklin is a little bigger, but coaching edge to GT. Watched both games last night and really impressed by both. 
 

If Gunter can get the passing game going, I’ll take GT by 7. If not, I’ll take Franklin by 7. 
 

Wish I could be there.

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56 minutes ago, JETT said:

I haven't seen gunter in person but I think Franklin will win this 1... they have speed to burn and they swarm to the ball... yes I know gunter swarms as well

 

I'll go Franklin 35-14

 

Good luck both squads

Gunter has speed as well. I’m gonna stick with the voices In my head. GUNTER 

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  • Crawford changed the title to #2 Gunter vs #1 Franklin 3A Div II State Championship

Considering all games played, Franklin is scoring 57.5 per game vs teams that allow 24.6 on average for a +32.8 on the offensive side.  They hold teams scoring 32.1 on average to 8.9 per game for a defensive swing of +23.2 (holding teams to 23.2 fewer than they average).  Overall swing for Franklin is +56.0

Gunter is scoring 51.7 per game against teams giving up 25.3 on average for an offensive swing of +26.4.  The hold teams scoring 33.9 per game to 10.3 for a +23.7 defensive swing.  Overall swing is +50.1 for Gunter.

Considering all games played, I get a Franklin win 39-32.

If you only consider district and playoff games (and only district and playoff games of opponents as well) :

Franklin is scoring 61.3 per game vs teams that give up 26.2 (+35.0) and allowing 6.2 per game to teams that average 33.1 (+26.9) for an overall swing of +61.9.

Gunter scoring 54.1 per game against teams that give up 25.8 per game (+28.3) and allowing 11.5 to teams that average 32.7 (+21.2) for a swing of +49.5.

Considering only these games, I get a 44-31 Franklin win.

Taking the best three swing games for each team, I get a 48-35 Franklin win.  Taking the three worst swing games for each team, I get a 34-24 Franklin win.  Franklin's worst three vs Gunter's best three, I get a 44-23 Gunter win.  Gunter's worst vs Franklin's best, I get a Franklin blowout, 58-15.

At this point in the season, there is no doubt that both teams are basically having their way against their opponents throughout the season - so some of these numbers could be skewed by differences in how the coaches handle the blowout wins.  At what point do they shut it down and how much of the play book do they throw out the window?  Let's be honest, there is no REAL difference between a 49-0 win and a 80-0 win, but that 80-0.  It's a whipping either way.  So, for this reason, I try to filter out the teams either Franklin or Gunter would destroy easily.

When I only consider games against opponents who score 35 or more points per game :

Franklin is scoring 44.5 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter is scoring 46.8 per game and allowing 9.6 per game.  Considering only these games, I get a Gunter win 27-24. 

Considering only those games against opponents that hold teams to under 20 points per game, Franklin is scoring 44.0 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter scores 44.5 per game and gives up 13.0 per game - and I get a Franklin 29-27 win.  I suspect the actual game will be closer to these last two examples.

When I only consider games against opponents who average 40 or more points a game :

Franklin (4 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 38.0 per game and giving up 15.5 per game.  Gunter (6 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 48.5 a game and holding teams to 11.0 per game.  I get a Gunter 31-17 win.

Last - when considering only games against opponents who both score over 40 points a game AND give up fewer than 20 per game :

Franklin (2 opponents fit criteria) scores 27.5 per game and give up 17 per game.  Gunter (5 opponents fit criteria) scores 44.5 per game and give up 13 per game.  I get a Gunter win, 28-14.

I think the game will play out more like the latter of these examples.  I'll take Gunter, 28-14.

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Gunter’s pistol offense is explosive. So many different players getting touches. They do a lot of stuff with the offense. They are aggressive on defense. They read their keys and get to the ball in a hurry.  Giving credit, Franklin is very good with the slot-t and they swarm on defense. 
im going with Gunter by 15+. 
TPW !!

variables (1) Gunter’s passing game. (2) turnovers (3) adjustments 

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5 minutes ago, Pax said:

Considering all games played, Franklin is scoring 57.5 per game vs teams that allow 24.6 on average for a +32.8 on the offensive side.  They hold teams scoring 32.1 on average to 8.9 per game for a defensive swing of +23.2 (holding teams to 23.2 fewer than they average).  Overall swing for Franklin is +56.0

Gunter is scoring 51.7 per game against teams giving up 25.3 on average for an offensive swing of +26.4.  The hold teams scoring 33.9 per game to 10.3 for a +23.7 defensive swing.  Overall swing is +50.1 for Gunter.

Considering all games played, I get a Franklin win 39-32.

If you only consider district and playoff games (and only district and playoff games of opponents as well) :

Franklin is scoring 61.3 per game vs teams that give up 26.2 (+35.0) and allowing 6.2 per game to teams that average 33.1 (+26.9) for an overall swing of +61.9.

Gunter scoring 54.1 per game against teams that give up 25.8 per game (+28.3) and allowing 11.5 to teams that average 32.7 (+21.2) for a swing of +49.5.

Considering only these games, I get a 44-31 Franklin win.

Taking the best three swing games for each team, I get a 48-35 Franklin win.  Taking the three worst swing games for each team, I get a 34-24 Franklin win.  Franklin's worst three vs Gunter's best three, I get a 44-23 Gunter win.  Gunter's worst vs Franklin's best, I get a Franklin blowout, 58-15.

At this point in the season, there is no doubt that both teams are basically having their way against their opponents throughout the season - so some of these numbers could be skewed by differences in how the coaches handle the blowout wins.  At what point do they shut it down and how much of the play book do they throw out the window?  Let's be honest, there is no REAL difference between a 49-0 win and a 80-0 win, but that 80-0.  It's a whipping either way.  So, for this reason, I try to filter out the teams either Franklin or Gunter would destroy easily.

When I only consider games against opponents who score 35 or more points per game :

Franklin is scoring 44.5 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter is scoring 46.8 per game and allowing 9.6 per game.  Considering only these games, I get a Gunter win 27-24. 

Considering only those games against opponents that hold teams to under 20 points per game, Franklin is scoring 44.0 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter scores 44.5 per game and gives up 13.0 per game - and I get a Franklin 29-27 win.  I suspect the actual game will be closer to these last two examples.

When I only consider games against opponents who average 40 or more points a game :

Franklin (4 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 38.0 per game and giving up 15.5 per game.  Gunter (6 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 48.5 a game and holding teams to 11.0 per game.  I get a Gunter 31-17 win.

Last - when considering only games against opponents who both score over 40 points a game AND give up fewer than 20 per game :

Franklin (2 opponents fit criteria) scores 27.5 per game and give up 17 per game.  Gunter (5 opponents fit criteria) scores 44.5 per game and give up 13 per game.  I get a Gunter win, 28-14.

I think the game will play out more like the latter of these examples.  I'll take Gunter, 28-14.

You was wrong last year that we would get blown out by Canadian and you will be wrong again this year... Franklin 28-14 they have a hunger in them that gunter had in 2016

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7 minutes ago, lionpride08 said:

You was wrong last year that we would get blown out by Canadian and you will be wrong again this year... Franklin 28-14 they have a hunger in them that gunter had in 2016

Yes, I was wrong about the state championship game last year.  This is true.

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3 minutes ago, Nick2011 said:

Waskom had speed too. Physicality and good defense beats speed. 

Waskom was grinding it out, other than that 84 yard and 60 yard run for waskom franklin kept em in check.... catz had good drives but franklin stopped em from scoring... franklin was clearly the better team.... it was a damn good game by top notch teams, I just feel franklin is on another level than the rest of d2

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5 minutes ago, JETT said:

Waskom was grinding it out, other than that 84 yard and 60 yard run for waskom franklin kept em in check.... catz had good drives but franklin stopped em from scoring... franklin was clearly the better team.... it was a damn good game by top notch teams, I just feel franklin is on another level than the rest of d2

Total yards from last night.

Waskom 318 rushing -5 passing = 313

Franklin 338 rushing 41 passing = 379

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Gunter can win but they will need a clean game. NO turnovers and limited penalties. Franklin is a lot bigger and just looks like they play in a larger division. They can match Gunter’s speed and quickness. If GT is able to have success offensively and can limit Franklin to 24 points, then they have a chance. That’s a lot of ifs. So I think Franklin has the edge in this one. 

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6 hours ago, Pax said:

Considering all games played, Franklin is scoring 57.5 per game vs teams that allow 24.6 on average for a +32.8 on the offensive side.  They hold teams scoring 32.1 on average to 8.9 per game for a defensive swing of +23.2 (holding teams to 23.2 fewer than they average).  Overall swing for Franklin is +56.0

Gunter is scoring 51.7 per game against teams giving up 25.3 on average for an offensive swing of +26.4.  The hold teams scoring 33.9 per game to 10.3 for a +23.7 defensive swing.  Overall swing is +50.1 for Gunter.

Considering all games played, I get a Franklin win 39-32.

If you only consider district and playoff games (and only district and playoff games of opponents as well) :

Franklin is scoring 61.3 per game vs teams that give up 26.2 (+35.0) and allowing 6.2 per game to teams that average 33.1 (+26.9) for an overall swing of +61.9.

Gunter scoring 54.1 per game against teams that give up 25.8 per game (+28.3) and allowing 11.5 to teams that average 32.7 (+21.2) for a swing of +49.5.

Considering only these games, I get a 44-31 Franklin win.

Taking the best three swing games for each team, I get a 48-35 Franklin win.  Taking the three worst swing games for each team, I get a 34-24 Franklin win.  Franklin's worst three vs Gunter's best three, I get a 44-23 Gunter win.  Gunter's worst vs Franklin's best, I get a Franklin blowout, 58-15.

At this point in the season, there is no doubt that both teams are basically having their way against their opponents throughout the season - so some of these numbers could be skewed by differences in how the coaches handle the blowout wins.  At what point do they shut it down and how much of the play book do they throw out the window?  Let's be honest, there is no REAL difference between a 49-0 win and a 80-0 win, but that 80-0.  It's a whipping either way.  So, for this reason, I try to filter out the teams either Franklin or Gunter would destroy easily.

When I only consider games against opponents who score 35 or more points per game :

Franklin is scoring 44.5 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter is scoring 46.8 per game and allowing 9.6 per game.  Considering only these games, I get a Gunter win 27-24. 

Considering only those games against opponents that hold teams to under 20 points per game, Franklin is scoring 44.0 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter scores 44.5 per game and gives up 13.0 per game - and I get a Franklin 29-27 win.  I suspect the actual game will be closer to these last two examples.

When I only consider games against opponents who average 40 or more points a game :

Franklin (4 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 38.0 per game and giving up 15.5 per game.  Gunter (6 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 48.5 a game and holding teams to 11.0 per game.  I get a Gunter 31-17 win.

Last - when considering only games against opponents who both score over 40 points a game AND give up fewer than 20 per game :

Franklin (2 opponents fit criteria) scores 27.5 per game and give up 17 per game.  Gunter (5 opponents fit criteria) scores 44.5 per game and give up 13 per game.  I get a Gunter win, 28-14.

I think the game will play out more like the latter of these examples.  I'll take Gunter, 28-14.

Longest post in the history of Smoaky 

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58 minutes ago, Bootlegger said:

Gunter can win but they will need a clean game. NO turnovers and limited penalties. Franklin is a lot bigger and just looks like they play in a larger division. They can match Gunter’s speed and quickness. If GT is able to have success offensively and can limit Franklin to 24 points, then they have a chance. That’s a lot of ifs. So I think Franklin has the edge in this one. 

I think you can throw out size as a real factor.  Both state championship games Gunter won in 2016 and 2019 were against teams that where much bigger.  Most of the teams we play are bigger.  Part of this is by design - coach likes quickness over size.  The defense is very quick and those big boys find it hard to get a block on them. Not only on the lines but the skill players for  Gunter's opponents are bigger too.  Should be a great game and I know neither team will go down without a fight.

When we played 4A Sunnyvale and Div 1 Pilot Point and Whitesboro they looked like they were in a bigger division which they were.  But 59-6 Pilot Point, 43-7 Sunnyvale, and 28-6 Whitesboro were the results.  All of these multi-round playoff teams.  Most our playoff games the other team was bigger, including Roosevelt.

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