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#2 Gunter vs #1 Franklin 3A Div II State Championship


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State Championship  

70 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Ya Got?

    • Gunter Tigers (15-0)
    • Franklin Lions (15-0)

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  • Poll closed on 12/17/2021 at 01:00 AM

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11 hours ago, RETIREDFAN1 said:

Franklin

Cmon Retiredfan, I thought you learned your lesson picking against Gunter in 2016 when you took Boling (along with a lotta other folks on this site) lol! You could very well be right in your pick, but Gunter is THE best coached team in the state! I certainly look for this one to be a barn burner, but in the end Gunter will be too much for the Lions! IMO of course!

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2 hours ago, UnclePigg said:

Cmon Retiredfan, I thought you learned your lesson picking against Gunter in 2016 when you took Boling (along with a lotta other folks on this site) lol! You could very well be right in your pick, but Gunter is THE best coached team in the state! I certainly look for this one to be a barn burner, but in the end Gunter will be too much for the Lions! IMO of course!

I certainly agree that GT is the best coached team! Franklin looks good ….hope GT prevails! 

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3 hours ago, LSUTigahs said:

I watched and felt they were fairly dominant. They gave up 2 big plays. Otherwise, the game was somewhat one-sided. 

It was tied in the third and looked like it was going to be tied in the 4th but for a fumble in the red zone. Franklin obviously did their thing and won. But I don’t think the toss sweep will be near as productive against Gunter. Can’t wait to see what I think will be a great game 

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49 minutes ago, ObiOne said:

It was tied in the third and looked like it was going to be tied in the 4th but for a fumble in the red zone. Franklin obviously did their thing and won. But I don’t think the toss sweep will be near as productive against Gunter. Can’t wait to see what I think will be a great game 

I saw a good Franklin team but they didn’t dominate by any means. 

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12 hours ago, LSUTigahs said:

I watched and felt they were fairly dominant. They gave up 2 big plays. Otherwise, the game was somewhat one-sided. 

Yeah, Franklin would have beat Waskom 56-0 if they scored more points and didn't allow two touchdowns 

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Gunter will have to play assignment and discipline football on D to stop Franklin O. You have to stay at home with all the misdirection they run. If they can force Franklin into obvious passing situations then they have a chance. I think Gunters QB will present problems for Franklin but not sure it will be enough. 

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2 hours ago, Pax said:

Yeah, Franklin would have beat Waskom 56-0 if they scored more points and didn't allow two touchdowns 

Nice. I simply meant that it wasn’t as close as the score suggested. 
They’ll have their hands full next game. Franklin is a load for anyone. Even the mighty gunter. 
 

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12 minutes ago, LSUTigahs said:

Nice. I simply meant that it wasn’t as close as the score suggested. 
They’ll have their hands full next game. Franklin is a load for anyone. Even the mighty gunter. 
 

I knew what you meant.  I know the feeling.  Both Franklin and Gunter have played in games whose score did not reflect the "feel" of the game.  While there are indeed some that act as though Gunter is some kind of infallible and undefeatable team, I am not one of them.  The "mighty Gunter" comment won't go too far with me.  Franklin has been on my radar since game one, and what they are doing to teams is intimidating.  It will take an elite performance to beat them.  I think Gunter has that elite performance in them.

I've just never been fond of making excuses for close games.  Waskom was damn good.  Franklin beat them.  Period.

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On 12/11/2021 at 12:23 PM, Pax said:

Considering all games played, Franklin is scoring 57.5 per game vs teams that allow 24.6 on average for a +32.8 on the offensive side.  They hold teams scoring 32.1 on average to 8.9 per game for a defensive swing of +23.2 (holding teams to 23.2 fewer than they average).  Overall swing for Franklin is +56.0

Gunter is scoring 51.7 per game against teams giving up 25.3 on average for an offensive swing of +26.4.  The hold teams scoring 33.9 per game to 10.3 for a +23.7 defensive swing.  Overall swing is +50.1 for Gunter.

Considering all games played, I get a Franklin win 39-32.

If you only consider district and playoff games (and only district and playoff games of opponents as well) :

Franklin is scoring 61.3 per game vs teams that give up 26.2 (+35.0) and allowing 6.2 per game to teams that average 33.1 (+26.9) for an overall swing of +61.9.

Gunter scoring 54.1 per game against teams that give up 25.8 per game (+28.3) and allowing 11.5 to teams that average 32.7 (+21.2) for a swing of +49.5.

Considering only these games, I get a 44-31 Franklin win.

Taking the best three swing games for each team, I get a 48-35 Franklin win.  Taking the three worst swing games for each team, I get a 34-24 Franklin win.  Franklin's worst three vs Gunter's best three, I get a 44-23 Gunter win.  Gunter's worst vs Franklin's best, I get a Franklin blowout, 58-15.

At this point in the season, there is no doubt that both teams are basically having their way against their opponents throughout the season - so some of these numbers could be skewed by differences in how the coaches handle the blowout wins.  At what point do they shut it down and how much of the play book do they throw out the window?  Let's be honest, there is no REAL difference between a 49-0 win and a 80-0 win, but that 80-0.  It's a whipping either way.  So, for this reason, I try to filter out the teams either Franklin or Gunter would destroy easily.

When I only consider games against opponents who score 35 or more points per game :

Franklin is scoring 44.5 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter is scoring 46.8 per game and allowing 9.6 per game.  Considering only these games, I get a Gunter win 27-24. 

Considering only those games against opponents that hold teams to under 20 points per game, Franklin is scoring 44.0 per game and giving up 12.3 per game while Gunter scores 44.5 per game and gives up 13.0 per game - and I get a Franklin 29-27 win.  I suspect the actual game will be closer to these last two examples.

When I only consider games against opponents who average 40 or more points a game :

Franklin (4 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 38.0 per game and giving up 15.5 per game.  Gunter (6 opponents who meet criteria) is scoring 48.5 a game and holding teams to 11.0 per game.  I get a Gunter 31-17 win.

Last - when considering only games against opponents who both score over 40 points a game AND give up fewer than 20 per game :

Franklin (2 opponents fit criteria) scores 27.5 per game and give up 17 per game.  Gunter (5 opponents fit criteria) scores 44.5 per game and give up 13 per game.  I get a Gunter win, 28-14.

I think the game will play out more like the latter of these examples.  I'll take Gunter, 28-14.

As usual great work Pax but I’m going the other way Franklin-31 Gunter-17.

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