Jump to content

College Football Playoff


Lobo97

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, DannyZuco said:

But we have another conference that could have just a 1 loss conference Champion.....North Carolina or Clemson, to go along with a 1 Loss Conference Champion in USC....if they all win out. 

Do you still think Tennessee should be in before either of those teams? 

I do think Tennessee is a better team (and I feel for the teams they play the rest of the season, because I think Heupal will try to blowup the scoreboard...angry), but I think there will be pressure to put a PAC12 champ in if equal or better in record...I think the ACC is done this year (as Clemson has not looked good, the rest of the conference has been weak...Clemson has been in there so much that this Tiger team doesn't match up).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PelvisPresley said:

I do think Tennessee is a better team (and I feel for the teams they play the rest of the season, because I think Heupal will try to blowup the scoreboard...angry), but I think there will be pressure to put a PAC12 champ in if equal or better in record...I think the ACC is done this year (as Clemson has not looked good, the rest of the conference has been weak...Clemson has been in there so much that this Tiger team doesn't match up).

But again, if all things are equal and in the past--the committee made it seem that conference championships meant more, do you place a 1 loss Tennessee team above any 1 loss Conference Champion? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 3 we absolutely know for sure (so long as they win out) is Georgia, B10 Champ, and TCU. If those 3 win out, they're in the playoff. And I think the likelihood is, they all 3 do. 

So that leaves #4. 

The teams with the highest chance of getting the 4 spot:

USC

Clemson

Tennessee

LSU

North Carolina

Let's look at who has the best chance of those 5.

The question that keeps being asked, 'would a 1 loss conference champ get in over a 1 loss non SEC champ (Tenn). Well, I think that depends on who the 1 loss conference champ is. 

We all know brand matters. It's why it took as long as it did for TCU to make the Top 4. 

If USC or Clemson win out, I believe they get the #4 spot. If they both win out, I think it's USC. They have 1 loss, by 1 point, on the road, and finish the season with 2 ranked opponents, and would then get a 3rd in the conference championship game. They're also a bigger name than Clemson. That all said, I don't think USC wins out.

If UNC wins out, meaning they also beat Clemson in the ACC championship, and USC loses another game, then I think Tennessee would make it over UNC. Again, brand matters. UNC is not a big enough brand (in football) to make it over a 1 loss SEC Tennessee. Tennessee isn't losing another game.

LSU is the team that can throw the biggest kink in the entire thing. If they win out, including beating Georgia, they're in. That is the ONLY way LSU gets in. In this scenario, I also think Georgia would still get in, without being a conference champion. 

 

So, I think UNC has the least chance (next to none) to make it. 

Tennessee needs the most help. 

LSU controls their destiny the most.

USC needs to win out, and LSU lose to Georgia.

Clemson needs to win out, and have USC and LSU lose.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

The 3 we absolutely know for sure (so long as they win out) is Georgia, B10 Champ, and TCU. If those 3 win out, they're in the playoff. And I think the likelihood is, they all 3 do. 

So that leaves #4. 

The teams with the highest chance of getting the 4 spot:

USC

Clemson

Tennessee

LSU

North Carolina

Let's look at who has the best chance of those 5.

The question that keeps being asked, 'would a 1 loss conference champ get in over a 1 loss non SEC champ (Tenn). Well, I think that depends on who the 1 loss conference champ is. 

We all know brand matters. It's why it took as long as it did for TCU to make the Top 4. 

If USC or Clemson win out, I believe they get the #4 spot. If they both win out, I think it's USC. They have 1 loss, by 1 point, on the road, and finish the season with 2 ranked opponents, and would then get a 3rd in the conference championship game. They're also a bigger name than Clemson. That all said, I don't think USC wins out.

If UNC wins out, meaning they also beat Clemson in the ACC championship, and USC loses another game, then I think Tennessee would make it over UNC. Again, brand matters. UNC is not a big enough brand (in football) to make it over a 1 loss SEC Tennessee. Tennessee isn't losing another game.

LSU is the team that can throw the biggest kink in the entire thing. If they win out, including beating Georgia, they're in. That is the ONLY way LSU gets in. In this scenario, I also think Georgia would still get in, without being a conference champion. 

 

So, I think UNC has the least chance (next to none) to make it. 

Tennessee needs the most help. 

LSU controls their destiny the most.

USC needs to win out, and LSU lose to Georgia.

Clemson needs to win out, and have USC and LSU lose.

Tennessee and any 1 loss conference champ all needs LSU to lose to Georgia. 
 

I don’t see 2-loss LSU getting in at all, even if they beat Georgia.  I think they hold tight at 5 or 6, (10 if they lose to Georgia.) 

Side note, Utah and USC are both 1 loss (conference) PAC teams and they play each other.  Utah beats Oregon and USC beats UCLA, Utah has a chance to knock USC out and essentially the PAC out of the playoffs.  
 

Clemson has the easiest path but also the least respectable one.  But the committee does love Clemson.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MavGrad99 said:

Tennessee and any 1 loss conference champ all needs LSU to lose to Georgia. 
 

I don’t see 2-loss LSU getting in at all, even if they beat Georgia.  I think they hold tight at 5 or 6, (10 if they lose to Georgia.) 

Side note, Utah and USC are both 1 loss (conference) PAC teams and they play each other.  Utah beats Oregon and USC beats UCLA, Utah has a chance to knock USC out and essentially the PAC out of the playoffs.  
 

Clemson has the easiest path but also the least respectable one.  But the committee does love Clemson.  

No way the SEC champ gets left out. I don't believe LSU beats Georgia, but if they do, they're in.

Utah has 2 losses, not 1. 

Clemson may have an easier 'path' than USC, but not a better chance of making it. They already have USC above Clemson. USC's schedule, if they win out, will be much stronger than Clemson's. And while they love Clemson, USC is a bigger name. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

No way the SEC champ gets left out. I don't believe LSU beats Georgia, but if they do, they're in.

Utah has 2 losses, not 1. 

Clemson may have an easier 'path' than USC, but not a better chance of making it. They already have USC above Clemson. USC's schedule, if they win out, will be much stronger than Clemson's. And while they love Clemson, USC is a bigger name. 

I said conference losses, to prove my point that they could meet up in the PAC 12 Title game again with USC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

I said conference losses, to prove my point that they could meet up in the PAC 12 Title game again with USC.

I missed that part. 

But to fair, I also said USC has to win out. So naturally the P12 would be knocked out if they lose to Utah, lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lobo97 said:

No way the SEC champ gets left out. I don't believe LSU beats Georgia, but if they do, they're in.

Utah has 2 losses, not 1. 

Clemson may have an easier 'path' than USC, but not a better chance of making it. They already have USC above Clemson. USC's schedule, if they win out, will be much stronger than Clemson's. And while they love Clemson, USC is a bigger name. 

And if they both win out, then USC will have a win over a team that crushed Clemson. 

Edited by DannyZuco
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, DannyZuco said:

But we have another conference that could have just a 1 loss conference Champion.....North Carolina or Clemson, to go along with a 1 Loss Conference Champion in USC....if they all win out. 

Do you still think Tennessee should be in before either of those teams? 

Why not put them all in and have a 16 team REAL playoff? ....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, KirtFalcon said:

Why not put them all in and have a 16 team REAL playoff? ....

I have been calling for a real playoff system for years, even using the bowl games to keep the bowl committees happy and making their money. But as long as the Bowl Committees instruct the NCAA on what to do, instead of the NCAA telling the Bowl Committees how it going to be done, we are going to continue to have "college football beauty contests" for a playoff system. If Division 1-AA (FCS) can have a real playoff, why can't the big boys? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, DannyZuco said:

But again, if all things are equal and in the past--the committee made it seem that conference championships meant more, do you place a 1 loss Tennessee team above any 1 loss Conference Champion? 

the eye ball test says the Vols are a level better...if I'm to give an extra nudge for winning a conference title, then the Vols fall to #6 behind a USC and Clemson.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DannyZuco said:

And if they both win out, then USC will have a win over a team that crushed Clemson. 

If USC wins out, they will also have 2 wins over top 15 teams which will completely change the way we look at them... one of them (if its Utah) will be the revenge win that the committee gave OU credit for recently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MavGrad99 said:

If USC wins out, they will also have 2 wins over top 15 teams which will completely change the way we look at them... one of them (if its Utah) will be the revenge win that the committee gave OU credit for recently.

USC will get dubbed by Utah ....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Lobo97 said:

And this is also why the BcS was so stupid. For two teams to have the same record, played each other, and have the loser ranked above the winner (Alabama & LSU), that's just dumb. 

Just to follow-up, here's how his projection matches up with last night playoff rankings: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/12/2022 at 9:23 PM, JohnnyFootball said:

To be fair, other sports are very different. Sports like baseball and basketball play 7-game series in the pros, and for good reason.

That's a great point, but they do still have a much larger number of participants. The CFP would ideally be set at eight. That shouldn't water down the consequences of losing one or two during the regular season and heighten the interest of several more thousands of fans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/16/2022 at 7:15 PM, Baron said:

That's a great point, but they do still have a much larger number of participants. The CFP would ideally be set at eight. That shouldn't water down the consequences of losing one or two during the regular season and heighten the interest of several more thousands of fans.

I like the eight idea. 

Include every P5 champ and 3 at-large teams. If a G5 team goes undefeated, they get an automatic bid. That ensures that every team at least has a realistic chance of winning a national title when the season starts, every P5 champion is represented, and if a team like Ohio State goes undefeated other than a loss to Michigan who IS undefeated, they'll still be included (unless several G5 teams go undefeated.... and either way, they controlled their destiny). 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...