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The 5 Powers of 3ad2 in the coming years


lionpride08

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Ever since 6a became a division only 5 teams have stayed around the top for multiple years. Since 2014 these 5 team have won the championship or played for one multiple times. Newton 2 titles 1 runner up, Waskom 2 titles, Canadian 1 title 1 runner up (back to back 2a champion in 14 and 15), Franklin 1 title 2 runner up's, and Gunter 2 titles 2 runner up's.

Not to mention that most of these years one of these teams have knocked out each other in the playoffs. Ex. Franklin over Waskom in 2020, Waskom over Newton 2021, Newton over Franklin 2014, and of course the annual Gunter vs Canadian.

The landscape is changing in this division. Gone is Franklin to 3ad1 and Gunter was one kid away from also becoming 3ad1. Schools like Waskom, Newton, and Canadian are dropping in enrollment. It is very possible that the 5 schools that have dominated 3ad2 over the past 8 years could all be gone with in the next 4-6 years.

Next realignment we could be down to just 3 or 2 of those teams left in 3ad2.

What do you think the landscape of 3ad2 will look like in the coming years?

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First, I love looking at those pics! That’s a feeling that they will never forget. I truthfully haven’t considered what 3A2 will look like going forward. My thoughts have mostly been about the inevitability of GT moving up and what 3A1 will be for them. I’ll be interested in hearing what everyone’s thoughts are on this question. I would think that enrollment would depend on the economies of each area. Gunter is in the way of urban sprawl coming from the south and probably will continue to slowly climb in divisions. Depending on how oil is doing, Canadian will probably bounce between 2A and 3A for a while. I can think of a few schools around here that could potentially climb from 2A to 3A2 in the next few realignments, but none that I can see being terribly competitive. Bells is 3A2 now and I have watched them get better every year. They will grow steadily but could become competitive in 3A2. I think Holliday will be 3A2 for a while and are always a tough team. Then there is Daingerfield. I haven’t heard of much growth in that area, I could be wrong. The tradition there will keep them competitive. Sorry for rambling on, just talking off the top of my head.

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7 hours ago, lionpride08 said:

Newton is the one school I could see sticking around in 3ad2 for years to come. Waskom and Canadian had between 35-45 kids from dropping to 2a. I have heard some say that the Jr high for both schools have much smaller enrollment then the high school.

Without going back and looking at the numbers, I believe Newton was closer to dropping this last cycle than Waskom was. Also, if UIL ever creates Class 7A, that will likely cause a massive reset in the cutoff numbers. 

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2 hours ago, trueblue82 said:

Without going back and looking at the numbers, I believe Newton was closer to dropping this last cycle than Waskom was. Also, if UIL ever creates Class 7A, that will likely cause a massive reset in the cutoff numbers. 

Hush ya mouths....7a would flip football classification on it's ear...jeez

 

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rural towns in East Texas are dying. Look at Linden Kildare. They used to play Atlanta Hallsville Jefferson Pleasant Grove now they are 2a Div 2. Daingerfield used to play Carthage and Gilmer regularly and now the are 3A Div 2. Enrollments will keep dropping in East Texas rural communities as parents move to get jobs.  

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Great post!  I think Gunter missed D1 by either 5 or 6 kids.  If they go D1 they will likely be there are a long time.  They aren't growing all that fast, even tough we did get a red light.  Those teams mentioned will still be in the hunt either D1 or 2.  I am picking Franklin to win D1 this year, or come close.  Holliday is right there - the only team in Region 2 that could have stopped them several years lately is Gunter.  Canadian is amazing, they are like a machine.  Love playing them.  They certainly won't go up any time soon, maybe down.  I don't think they care much.

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1 hour ago, lionpride08 said:

If you remove all 5 who steps up out of each region? Would one team dominate more or have a mix


In region 1, someone like a Wall would become a consistent threat. 
 

In region 2, it would be wide open considering Gunter has won it with ease for what feels like the last decade. As someone else mentioned, Holliday would probably definitely be in the mix. 

Considering Daingerfield has lost to the regional representative the last 4 years (3 times in round 4, once in round 2) I would think all roads lead through them (if those roads don’t already) in Region 3 if Newton and Waskom were to drop. 
 

Region 4 is WIDE open without Franklin already, so no telling who would step up there. East Bernard has been there in the past. 

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On 9/7/2022 at 5:29 AM, trueblue82 said:

Without going back and looking at the numbers, I believe Newton was closer to dropping this last cycle than Waskom was. Also, if UIL ever creates Class 7A, that will likely cause a massive reset in the cutoff numbers. 

Watched a video from who was I think the deputy director of the UIL, this was in July or august and he said 7A is years away and just isn’t feasible right now. So much logistical goes into it. Just not gonna happen. I think the numbers keep bumping up again and again until 7A, then when it finally comes, it’s gonna be chaotic as perennial powers have to move up in classification, or it could have not a whole lot of impact as maybe 40-50 teams move to 7A and everything stays the same for 2 years. Lot’s of ways it could go down. Time will tell, but not in 2024. 

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Dangerfield dropped because of lone star steel closing. I'm guessing LK is dropping due to lack of jobs in the area and cost of fuel to get to Atlanta and other bigger cities. With gas in some areas dropping under 3.00 they should be fine. Still higher than used to be but its the time we live in. 

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Waskom right now is at about 267, We lose a fairly big senior class this year I predict we will be close or under 250 in two years. If they adjust numbers downward that will change a lot of things Waskom is around 65 to 68 per class with a few coming up in the high 50's. Waskom can't go East or West or South but they can go north to the Karnack area if a deal was made between Marshall, Jefferson and Waskom on land.  

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  • 1 month later...
On 9/7/2022 at 1:56 PM, GTAlumnus said:

Great post!  I think Gunter missed D1 by either 5 or 6 kids.  If they go D1 they will likely be there are a long time.  They aren't growing all that fast, even tough we did get a red light.  Those teams mentioned will still be in the hunt either D1 or 2.  I am picking Franklin to win D1 this year, or come close.  Holliday is right there - the only team in Region 2 that could have stopped them several years lately is Gunter.  Canadian is amazing, they are like a machine.  Love playing them.  They certainly won't go up any time soon, maybe down.  I don't think they care much.

If things do not pick up in Canadian I could see us dropping in 2024.

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On 9/7/2022 at 9:09 PM, lionpride08 said:

If you remove all 5 who steps up out of each region? Would one team dominate more or have a mix

Hemphill has been on the come up for the last several years but there blowout loss to Newton earlier in the season showed us how they fare against the big dogs. Still they are a lot better than they were in past years. What ever happened to Arp? that team they had in 16 was LOADED

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CC was in 3a-2 from 14 to this year. This is our first season back in 2a-1 since 13. I don't see how teams like Newton have stayed 3a-2 seems they would for sure at least be a 3a-1. Used to have Crockett in 3a-2 somehow they're a huge town!

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1 hour ago, Bsota99 said:

If things do not pick up in Canadian I could see us dropping in 2024.

We WILL drop, but I don’t think it will be until 2026. The last Big class is sophomores now, at least I think. That class had to have an extra teacher move up with it from 1–5th grade. 
 

 

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13 hours ago, THEHARDWAY said:

Another thought, 2AD1 will be brutal. It’s all hypothetical of course, but Canadian, Abernathy, Cisco, Crawford, Newton, Waskom, EF, Refugio, Mason, and Shiner……….

 

Daingerfield would be close too. They are not much bigger than Waskom.

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