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🔴 Oklahoma Sooners 2023 ⚪


Valhalla

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Short version: I expect more of the same next year. Somewhere around 8-5 (with a low-tier bowl win) or 7-6 (with a mid-tier bowl loss). 

Full version: There's a steep learning curve to the Venables system on defense, and it's even more obvious now that the kind of defensive players that have been recruited to OU for half a decade aren't a good fit for a physical, assignment-heavy defense. If you don't believe that, you must've missed yesterday's debacle in Dallas. 

I do expect significant improvement from the defense, but it's not going to be enough to counterbalance the ill-advised emphasis on tempo that our offense will force our defense to compensate for. It would be nice to lean as heavily on the run game as we did against Florida State, but someone has *got* to get in Lebby (or Gabriel's?) face about the clock management. Rolling up 600 yards doesn't matter if we give them the ball for nearly 40 minutes per game.

Hopefully we come out on the winning end of a couple of those single-digit losses we experienced this year, but I'm not counting on it. We'll lose to TCU. We'll split games with KU/KSU. We'll probably win 2 of 3 against TxTech, OkState, and WV, but will almost certainly lose at Baylor. UT is a crapshoot (there's no reason we beat them, so we might actually).

Oklahoma will never be in the conversation for a conference title. We'll finish the regular season 7-5 and either win a low-tier bowl or lose a mid-tier bowl. The temperature of Brent's seat going into '24 will depend on how we finish the post-season.

Ceiling: 8-5
Floor: 7-6

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3 hours ago, Mr. P said:

Short version: I expect more of the same next year. Somewhere around 8-5 (with a low-tier bowl win) or 7-6 (with a mid-tier bowl loss). 

Full version: There's a steep learning curve to the Venables system on defense, and it's even more obvious now that the kind of defensive players that have been recruited to OU for half a decade aren't a good fit for a physical, assignment-heavy defense. If you don't believe that, you must've missed yesterday's debacle in Dallas. 

I do expect significant improvement from the defense, but it's not going to be enough to counterbalance the ill-advised emphasis on tempo that our offense will force our defense to compensate for. It would be nice to lean as heavily on the run game as we did against Florida State, but someone has *got* to get in Lebby (or Gabriel's?) face about the clock management. Rolling up 600 yards doesn't matter if we give them the ball for nearly 40 minutes per game.

Hopefully we come out on the winning end of a couple of those single-digit losses we experienced this year, but I'm not counting on it. We'll lose to TCU. We'll split games with KU/KSU. We'll probably win 2 of 3 against TxTech, OkState, and WV, but will almost certainly lose at Baylor. UT is a crapshoot (there's no reason we beat them, so we might actually).

Oklahoma will never be in the conversation for a conference title. We'll finish the regular season 7-5 and either win a low-tier bowl or lose a mid-tier bowl. The temperature of Brent's seat going into '24 will depend on how we finish the post-season.

Ceiling: 8-5
Floor: 7-6

Surprisingly, I am more optimistic about next year than you are assuming Dillon Gabriel returns. 

Oklahoma was 0-5 on one possession games and their last four losses were all by 3 points. If they just win half of those then this was an 8-9 win team. 
 

The defense improved over the year. The DL will a much needed talent infusion from the 2023 class and the transfer portal. The secondary looks to be the most talented secondary since the mid 2000s. The LBs will be fine once they get some depth and don’t have to play the starters 90 snaps a game. 

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6 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

Surprisingly, I am more optimistic about next year than you are assuming Dillon Gabriel returns... 

Big assumption (one that I share) and count me among the less-vocal Sooners who are not yet ready to throw DG out with the bathwater.

Yeah yeah, he's not remarkable, but he's perfectly adequate for now. I can't think of any games he "lost" for us, unless you count snapping the ball with too much time on the playclock when we've got the lead. (I put that more on the HC and OC than the QB.)

13 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

Oklahoma was 0-5 on one possession games and their last four losses were all by 3 points. If they just win half of those then this was an 8-9 win team. 

Agree. I maintain that most of our offensive woes come down to poor receiving and time management. Both are issues that can be overcome with coaching. Will they? Remains to be seen. At this point I'd settle for going .500 in one possession games. We just couldn't get out of own way this year. Laughable officiating certainly didn't help, but we still gotta control what we can. 

16 minutes ago, Valhalla said:

The defense improved over the year. The DL will a much needed talent infusion from the 2023 class and the transfer portal. The secondary looks to be the most talented secondary since the mid 2000s. The LBs will be fine once they get some depth and don’t have to play the starters 90 snaps a game. 

Frankly, I'd accept *this year's* secondary if we had more push up front. I don't care if you've got Ronnie Lott and Deion Sanders back there. Any QB can find an open receiver if you give him eight seconds. 

We also need the LBs to grow up in a major way. Sure, depth was the primary cause, but we still made some mediocre QBs look like Mike Vick. A big part of that is blown assignments, but our LBs are literally there to back the line. So many broken tackles. So. Many.

Again: it all comes back to coaching. It's all on Brent Venables now. Miss me with that "b-b-b-but muh Lincoln Riley left the cupboard bare" noise. We're a full calendar year into now. Plenty of time to re-stock the shelves and coach 'em up. No more excuses. 

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All-MAC offensive lineman Caleb Shaffer announces transfer to Oklahoma

Shaffer is a three year starter for the Redhawks, entered the transfer portal after the 2022 regular season. According to Pro Football Focus, Shaffer played in 717 snaps in the '22 season, and allowed just one sack the entire season at left guard.

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1 hour ago, Valhalla said:

This was not news that I was hoping for. 

Apparently he's not happy with the WR Coach situation. 

Regardless...  I wish him well. I think another year could've made him a bit more money, but I guess he wants to cash in his chips now. Hope it's for the best. 

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On 1/6/2023 at 2:41 PM, Mr. P said:

Apparently he's not happy with the WR Coach situation. 

Regardless...  I wish him well. I think another year could've made him a bit more money, but I guess he wants to cash in his chips now. Hope it's for the best. 

Me too at the moment. 

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