2024 Realignment Wish list

[Mavchamp]

Realignment talk will really start heating up again in the coming months.  There are lots of questions..... speculations.... and wishes.

So what are some of your questions?  speculations?  and wishes?

 

[Nacwagons]

19 minutes ago, Mavchamp said:

Realignment talk will really start heating up again in the coming months.  There are lots of questions..... speculations.... and wishes.

So what are some of your questions?  speculations?  and wishes?

 

Don't want to go south!!! Get all of our sports back in East Texas!!

 

I have a bad feeling that the non-football sports going south was to prepare us to go that way in football in this next realignment. 

Edited April 4 by Nacwagons

[Mavchamp]

My Questions:
1.  Do any current 4A schools move (back) up to 5A?  Obviously Lindale, Jacksonville, and Sulphur Springs have all dropped from 5A in the last couple of alignments.  Kilgore has also been in this district...although not so recently.  Barring a huge increase on the lower end of 5A.... have any of them seen enough growth to possibly move up?

2.  Are there any more 5A schools on the bubble of moving down?  Again....barring a huge increase, not really.  There are 10 ETX schools in 5A right now and six of them are all hovering around the 1500-1600 mark.  Lufkin, Tyler, and Longview all have over 2000.  Without looking....my guess is that Pine Tree would be next closest to moving down...and they are well over 200 from 4A.

3.  Are there any 5A schools that could move up to 6A?  Once again... this is really contingent on how much the lower limit of 6A changes.  If I recall correctly.....the 2020 6A cutoff was 2,020...and it only increased to 2,025  in the last alignment.  Longview and Lufkin both missed the cutoff by less than 40.  Tyler missed it by less than 50.  Have any of them had enough growth to bump up again?

4.  Can Texas High return to 5A Div I?  Historically...... THS has been on the bubble of 5A Div I and Div II.  They spent the first several years in the upper bracket.  But a decline in enrollment from 1900-ish to 1700-ish has put them firmly in Div II.  The question is.... is the 1700 a blip or a trend?  Will they remain lower and stay in Div II....or do they return to the 1900 and bubble into Div I?

Interesting stuff......

I think the biggest thing in the coming alignments....is the possibility of splitting the other sports into divisions.

My biggest wish?

Having TWO FULLY East Texas 5A districts.  That was always the best IMHO.  But with Jax, Lindale, and SS all in 4A now...that's going to be a tall order to make happen again.

I hate that Lufkin and Nac have to go south.  I'd rather see them playing Whitehouse, Tyler, Jacksonville in district....... 

Then you see them face off against a "north" 5A team like Texas, High, SS, MP, Longview, Marshall, etc in the first round of the playoffs.

Wishful thinking on my part I suppose.

 

[Mavchamp]

46 minutes ago, Nacwagons said:

Don't want to go south!!! Get all of our sports back in East Texas!!

 

I have a bad feeling that the non-football sports going south was to prepare us to go that way in football in this next realignment. 

It's a possibility..... there are so many moving parts...it's hard to predict.

I think if Longview....Tyler...or Lufkin move back to 6A..... Nac would be in a good position to stay in an East Texas district for ALL sports.  If they all stay 5A..it gets dicey for Nac and Lufkin going south.   ESPECIALLY if Lindale or Jacksonville move up.  There just wouldn't be any room for Nac anymore..unless we saw a district similar to the mid 2010's that included Ennis.

Jax is a longshot to move back up I think.  They just aren't growing (enough).  But Lindale is exploding.  I can't see them not moving back up....if not in 2024, then in 2026 for sure.  Sulphur Springs moving back up might could make the case of the North/South district alignment again like we've seen.  But....I don't think SS is seeing much growth.

And for football.... Texas High moving to 5A Div I could cause a huge ripple effect.  If the current ETX Div I schools remained there.... a Lufkin, Longview, Tyler, THS district would be interesting.  But if any of them moved back to 6A.... Texarkana could end up on an island like they did in the late 2010's.  With all their district games in the metroplex.

So many possibilities.

It actually makes those of us "in the middle" (Marshall, Hallsville, PT) so uneasy.  We've been grouped with Greenville and SS before..... but we've been grouped with Nac and LP before.  It's wild. 

[Lion7000]

I selfishly like it better when there are two 5a East Texas districts.  I also want those 5a districts to play the 4a district in non district. Aka Kilgore vs Marshall ect. Kinda fun seeing Longview playing in a competitive district because they’re so good. 

[89Falcon]

35 minutes ago, Mojo1000 said:

I selfishly like it better when there are two 5a East Texas districts.  I also want those 5a districts to play the 4a district in non district. Aka Kilgore vs Marshall ect. Kinda fun seeing Longview playing in a competitive district because they’re so good. 

You had part of that this year, Carthage vs Marshall. 

[Tex85]

Hopefully they dont move up to 5A1 but it looks like Texas High is growing. i know PG has gotten a lot of attention for some of their "academic" transfers but i know several that have moved to t-high for high school. i figure theyll be in the 1900 range come next year but i could be off.

13 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

 

4.  Can Texas High return to 5A Div I?  Historically...... THS has been on the bubble of 5A Div I and Div II.  They spent the first several years in the upper bracket.  But a decline in enrollment from 1900-ish to 1700-ish has put them firmly in Div II.  The question is.... is the 1700 a blip or a trend?  Will they remain lower and stay in Div II....or do they return to the 1900 and bubble into Div I?

 

 

 

[GoodOleBoy73]

13 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

My Questions:
1.  Do any current 4A schools move (back) up to 5A?  Obviously Lindale, Jacksonville, and Sulphur Springs have all dropped from 5A in the last couple of alignments.  Kilgore has also been in this district...although not so recently.  Barring a huge increase on the lower end of 5A.... have any of them seen enough growth to possibly move up?

2.  Are there any more 5A schools on the bubble of moving down?  Again....barring a huge increase, not really.  There are 10 ETX schools in 5A right now and six of them are all hovering around the 1500-1600 mark.  Lufkin, Tyler, and Longview all have over 2000.  Without looking....my guess is that Pine Tree would be next closest to moving down...and they are well over 200 from 4A.

3.  Are there any 5A schools that could move up to 6A?  Once again... this is really contingent on how much the lower limit of 6A changes.  If I recall correctly.....the 2020 6A cutoff was 2,020...and it only increased to 2,025  in the last alignment.  Longview and Lufkin both missed the cutoff by less than 40.  Tyler missed it by less than 50.  Have any of them had enough growth to bump up again?

4.  Can Texas High return to 5A Div I?  Historically...... THS has been on the bubble of 5A Div I and Div II.  They spent the first several years in the upper bracket.  But a decline in enrollment from 1900-ish to 1700-ish has put them firmly in Div II.  The question is.... is the 1700 a blip or a trend?  Will they remain lower and stay in Div II....or do they return to the 1900 and bubble into Div I?

Interesting stuff......

I think the biggest thing in the coming alignments....is the possibility of splitting the other sports into divisions.

My biggest wish?

Having TWO FULLY East Texas 5A districts.  That was always the best IMHO.  But with Jax, Lindale, and SS all in 4A now...that's going to be a tall order to make happen again.

I hate that Lufkin and Nac have to go south.  I'd rather see them playing Whitehouse, Tyler, Jacksonville in district....... 

Then you see them face off against a "north" 5A team like Texas, High, SS, MP, Longview, Marshall, etc in the first round of the playoffs.

Wishful thinking on my part I suppose.

 

1 - With the number rising consistently...I don't think Lindale/SS/Jacksonville will be moving back up this cycle

2 - I've heard (not by great sources...but this information is definitely being floated out there) that Pine Tree is dropping. People I've talked to say it is definitely happening. I'm not sold...but that could throw a wrench into things.

[Lion7000]

59 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

You had part of that this year, Carthage vs Marshall. 

I meant lot of the teams. Kilgore henderson ,Jax ect…

[Ijustwatch]

I know this is a big school thread right now but looks at the small schools

Will EF Waskom Pewitt DEkalb move down into 2a d1

Is LE moving to 3a D1

Is Atlanta Moving up to 4a D2

How close is carthage to moving up?

[Lion7000]

1 hour ago, Ijustwatch said:

I know this is a big school thread right now but looks at the small schools

Will EF Waskom Pewitt DEkalb move down into 2a d1

Is LE moving to 3a D1

Is Atlanta Moving up to 4a D2

How close is carthage to moving up?

1.Likely 

2. Could be a good move .

 

3. I doubt it but seriously they did worse in the drop of classes 

4. Not a chance you guys are stuck with your champion 

[VerumDixit]

1 hour ago, Ijustwatch said:

I know this is a big school thread right now but looks at the small schools

Will EF Waskom Pewitt DEkalb move down into 2a d1

Is LE moving to 3a D1

Is Atlanta Moving up to 4a D2

How close is carthage to moving up?

EF, Pewitt, and Dekalb were only like 4-5 kids away from dropping last time.

[Tex85]

i know LEs numbers were decreasing last time but they were still about middle of the pack just a little bit below PG so they'd have to drop a lot more. 

[TIMRIGGINS]

37 minutes ago, txk85 said:

i know LEs numbers were decreasing last time but they were still about middle of the pack just a little bit below PG so they'd have to drop a lot more. 

Good because I heard they were close to dropping

[TIMRIGGINS]

How close is Hooks to going 3a D1?

[Tex85]

20 minutes ago, TIMRIGGINS said:

Good because I heard they were close to dropping

mid 600s lower than i thought they were.

[VerumDixit]

22 minutes ago, TIMRIGGINS said:

How close is Hooks to going 3a D1?

That number keeps jumping up. It seems to keep allowing schools like Hooks, New Diana, Troup, and Quitman to stay down.

[TIMRIGGINS]

10 minutes ago, txk85 said:

mid 600s lower than i thought they were.

Yeah thats getting close but should stay up. 

[TIMRIGGINS]

9 minutes ago, VerumDixit said:

That number keeps jumping up. It seems to keep allowing schools like Hooks, New Diana, Troup, and Quitman to stay down.

And Atlanta. They have been getting kids left and right but are managing to stay down

[tomlandry]

19 hours ago, Mavchamp said:

My Questions:
1.  Do any current 4A schools move (back) up to 5A?  Obviously Lindale, Jacksonville, and Sulphur Springs have all dropped from 5A in the last couple of alignments.  Kilgore has also been in this district...although not so recently.  Barring a huge increase on the lower end of 5A.... have any of them seen enough growth to possibly move up?

2.  Are there any more 5A schools on the bubble of moving down?  Again....barring a huge increase, not really.  There are 10 ETX schools in 5A right now and six of them are all hovering around the 1500-1600 mark.  Lufkin, Tyler, and Longview all have over 2000.  Without looking....my guess is that Pine Tree would be next closest to moving down...and they are well over 200 from 4A.

3.  Are there any 5A schools that could move up to 6A?  Once again... this is really contingent on how much the lower limit of 6A changes.  If I recall correctly.....the 2020 6A cutoff was 2,020...and it only increased to 2,025  in the last alignment.  Longview and Lufkin both missed the cutoff by less than 40.  Tyler missed it by less than 50.  Have any of them had enough growth to bump up again?

4.  Can Texas High return to 5A Div I?  Historically...... THS has been on the bubble of 5A Div I and Div II.  They spent the first several years in the upper bracket.  But a decline in enrollment from 1900-ish to 1700-ish has put them firmly in Div II.  The question is.... is the 1700 a blip or a trend?  Will they remain lower and stay in Div II....or do they return to the 1900 and bubble into Div I?

Interesting stuff......

I think the biggest thing in the coming alignments....is the possibility of splitting the other sports into divisions.

My biggest wish?

Having TWO FULLY East Texas 5A districts.  That was always the best IMHO.  But with Jax, Lindale, and SS all in 4A now...that's going to be a tall order to make happen again.

I hate that Lufkin and Nac have to go south.  I'd rather see them playing Whitehouse, Tyler, Jacksonville in district....... 

Then you see them face off against a "north" 5A team like Texas, High, SS, MP, Longview, Marshall, etc in the first round of the playoffs.

Wishful thinking on my part I suppose.

 

Wishes

Texas High moves up 

Return of teams that went down to 4A like in past district recent history

10 team ETX district - no predistrict games

Pine Tree

Hallsville

Marshall

Sulphur Springs

Mount Pleasant

Greenville

Lindale

Whitehouse

Jax

Nac

 

[LoboFan07]

Can’t see them putting Lufkin back in our district regardless of what happens UNLESS, they move Longview and Tyler to a south district (away from the Metroplex). Would definitely could happen, especially if T High doesn’t go up and/or all the expected schools that are growing go up. McKinney North will be right on the line. West Mesquite has a chance to go up. Forney undoubtedly will move up. Sherman should move up to 6A. Will Lancaster jump up? That’s definitely a possibility. More so I expect Highland Park to drop back and will be in our district again. Just who with will be the question. Hope and pray to whatever god you want it is not with Dallas ISD. 

But Longview should stay 5A. Would be shocked if we moved up until 7A is created and 6A resettles into the low 2,000s schools.

[SAPACK1]

7 hours ago, Ijustwatch said:

I know this is a big school thread right now but looks at the small schools

Will EF Waskom Pewitt DEkalb move down into 2a d1

Is LE moving to 3a D1

Is Atlanta Moving up to 4a D2

How close is carthage to moving up?

Newton is trending towards 2a D1 also....

[Mavchamp]

3 hours ago, LoboFan07 said:

But Longview should stay 5A. Would be shocked if we moved up until 7A is created and 6A resettles into the low 2,000s schools.

Would it really be a shock though?  Unless the bottom of the 6A number takes a big jump in 2024...it could be mighty close.  It only bumped up by 5 last time.  Both Lufkin and Longview were within 40 in 2022.  40 out of 2,100+ is pretty small.

I wouldn't think an increase of only 50-60 students for schools that size would be a huge deal.

The question isn't so much can Long/Luf see small increases to make the jump....but will UIL keep the bottom number static?

[Mavchamp]

Another possibility.....and I have mixed feelings about it....

splitting the other sports into Division I and Division II

[LoboFan07]

1 hour ago, Mavchamp said:

Would it really be a shock though?  Unless the bottom of the 6A number takes a big jump in 2024...it could be mighty close.  It only bumped up by 5 last time.  Both Lufkin and Longview were within 40 in 2022.  40 out of 2,100+ is pretty small.

I wouldn't think an increase of only 50-60 students for schools that size would be a huge deal.

The question isn't so much can Long/Luf see small increases to make the jump....but will UIL keep the bottom number static?

The slight increase was a little surprise, no doubt.

But you’re looking at it from a numbers stand point. I’m looking at it from a schools around us stand point. Is Longview growing? Sure. But, we’re not growing at the level as the Metroplex schools or the Houston schools or the Austin schools. New schools continue to pop up in all over those places (plus San Anton). So looking at it like that, will we see an increase from Longview? Maybe. Will there be enough static numbers in schools in the big metro areas to see Longview jump over them? I just don’t see it. I would not be shocked to see us lose half our district to 6A this go around personally. 

I would be absolutely shocked to see Longview as a 6A school again until 7A is created, just knowing what I know about Longview and the schools in DFW. Aledo will be 6A before us. Ryan has a better chance at jumping up than we do imo.