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Honey Grove vs Cooper { ghost of Gunter} next week


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8 minutes ago, KirtFalcon said:

Garrison has scored 371 points and has given up 66 .... Most of those 66 points were scored against our 2nd stringers ....  If we had played Honey Groves schedule, I'd wager we could have pitched a shut out as well looking at their schedule ....  I don't know that HG would be undefeated if they had played our schedule ....

 

I don't know anything about how the coaches at Honey Grove handle blow outs, but I generally assume that teams that are blowing out everyone put the backups in like everyone else does.  I'm not trying to make the argument that Honey Grove is better or worse than anyone else - - or what they would do with any other schedule.  The fact remains that they are the only team out of 1,501 teams in the state of Texas that have yet to give up a point.  You bring up Garrison, so I'll just throw it out there - Garrison is beating their opponents by an average score of 53-9.  Garrison's opponents have an average rating of 111.  This just a tad better than Honey Grove's opponents whose average rating is 106.  This is pretty much as close to an even schedule as you'll see.  So, I don't think Garrison has had a considerably tougher schedule; just a marginally better one.  In context of the rest of the state, pretty much an even strength of schedule.  It's worth noting that HG is beating their opponents by an average score of 55 points.  In other words - - their average score is 55-0.  This against a schedule that is comparable to Garrison's.  By the way, that 55-point average margin of victory is also good enough for the highest average margin of victory in all of Texas across all classifications both public and private.  It is again - if nothing else - worthy of noting.  It's not like they are playing bottom-of-the-barrel teams.  Again, their strength of schedule is on par with the team you bring up in comparison. 

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39 minutes ago, Cannon85 said:

Compare Hooks or Collinsville to anyone HG has played. They haven't played anyone with a winning record. Giving up zero points is an amazing feat this far into the season but that will end next Friday.

Again, I'm not crowning them champions, and it very well may end next Friday.  Still, the fact will remain that for the 2023 Texas high school football season, Honey Grove will be the last team in the entire state of Texas to give up a point.  Losing next week won't change that. 

All I'm doing is acknowledging that giving up zero points this far into the season is an amazing feat.  Something you clearly agree with.  That's literally my point.  It's noteworthy.  Honey Grove is not a team I have any affiliation with.  I don't know anything about their program.  I've never followed them.  I go through points and scores because it's a hobby of mine to predict scores in games, things like that and in the course of going that, I noticed a team that had yet to give up any points all year - - so I got curious and looked into it.  I was impressed, so I shared.  Figured someone else might appreciate it.  There is a team in 2AD1 right now that is the last team in the entire state of Texas across all classifications that has yet to give up a point - AND - has the largest average margin of victory in the entire state of Texas across all classifications.  That's pretty neat for them.  I have already acknowledged that there is likely a lot of luck involved.

The main reason I even brought this up was not to boast or brag or claim this team was gonna win it all.  They are the last team in the state that has a zero in the points allowed column.  I figured people might be interested in that and follow them to see how long they can keep the streak going.  Or maybe wish it would end.  Either way, it's interesting to me.  That is the only reason I brought it up.

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2 hours ago, Pax said:

I don't know anything about how the coaches at Honey Grove handle blow outs, but I generally assume that teams that are blowing out everyone put the backups in like everyone else does.  I'm not trying to make the argument that Honey Grove is better or worse than anyone else - - or what they would do with any other schedule.  The fact remains that they are the only team out of 1,501 teams in the state of Texas that have yet to give up a point.  You bring up Garrison, so I'll just throw it out there - Garrison is beating their opponents by an average score of 53-9.  Garrison's opponents have an average rating of 111.  This just a tad better than Honey Grove's opponents whose average rating is 106.  This is pretty much as close to an even schedule as you'll see.  So, I don't think Garrison has had a considerably tougher schedule; just a marginally better one.  In context of the rest of the state, pretty much an even strength of schedule.  It's worth noting that HG is beating their opponents by an average score of 55 points.  In other words - - their average score is 55-0.  This against a schedule that is comparable to Garrison's.  By the way, that 55-point average margin of victory is also good enough for the highest average margin of victory in all of Texas across all classifications both public and private.  It is again - if nothing else - worthy of noting.  It's not like they are playing bottom-of-the-barrel teams.  Again, their strength of schedule is on par with the team you bring up in comparison. 

Garrison's offense could have easily scored 2 to 3 more TDs per game ... we have basically coasted in the 2nd half of most of our games chosing not to run up the score .... I don't know what HG has done .... I'll give them some props, but my guess is they would finish no higher than 3rd in our district ....

...

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The level of competition does matter.  Who has had the toughest schedule overall.  No doubt their D is outstanding.  If Cooper is healthy I think the scoreless run ends this weekend.  I am not picking a winner but I do think Cooper will score on HG

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15 hours ago, Pax said:

I don't know anything about how the coaches at Honey Grove handle blow outs, but I generally assume that teams that are blowing out everyone put the backups in like everyone else does.  I'm not trying to make the argument that Honey Grove is better or worse than anyone else - - or what they would do with any other schedule.  The fact remains that they are the only team out of 1,501 teams in the state of Texas that have yet to give up a point.  You bring up Garrison, so I'll just throw it out there - Garrison is beating their opponents by an average score of 53-9.  Garrison's opponents have an average rating of 111.  This just a tad better than Honey Grove's opponents whose average rating is 106.  This is pretty much as close to an even schedule as you'll see.  So, I don't think Garrison has had a considerably tougher schedule; just a marginally better one.  In context of the rest of the state, pretty much an even strength of schedule.  It's worth noting that HG is beating their opponents by an average score of 55 points.  In other words - - their average score is 55-0.  This against a schedule that is comparable to Garrison's.  By the way, that 55-point average margin of victory is also good enough for the highest average margin of victory in all of Texas across all classifications both public and private.  It is again - if nothing else - worthy of noting.  It's not like they are playing bottom-of-the-barrel teams.  Again, their strength of schedule is on par with the team you bring up in comparison. 

Its like comparing apples to oranges. HG gets their first real test next week. LOL I will be on the scene to witness. Garrison will play Timpson in a couple weeks. Hopefully both teams will stay healthy this year and can meet on the field of play and settle this. I would pick Garrison 32 HG 20. 

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13 minutes ago, Bulldogbacker78 said:

Its like comparing apples to oranges. HG gets their first real test next week. LOL I will be on the scene to witness. Garrison will play Timpson in a couple weeks. Hopefully both teams will stay healthy this year and can meet on the field of play and settle this. I would pick Garrison 32 HG 20. 

Garrison vs Timpson will be a war .... we lost last year on Special Teams because the substitute kicker kicked deep TWICE to Bussey .... big mistake .... he is dynamic in the open field .... take away those two bone head mistakes and we win that game .... I believe both Timpson and Garrison are better this year .... big rivalry game against two powerhouse teams 7 miles apart separated by the Attoyac River  ... it's The Battle of the Attoyac 2023 ....

Honey Nut don't want none of this .... :woot:

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1 hour ago, Bulldogbacker78 said:

Its like comparing apples to oranges. HG gets their first real test next week. LOL I will be on the scene to witness. Garrison will play Timpson in a couple weeks. Hopefully both teams will stay healthy this year and can meet on the field of play and settle this. I would pick Garrison 32 HG 20. 

I'm not really comparing HG to anyone.  I'm just going by what they have done to who they've played.  I guess the point is that if you're holding your opponents to a combined score of zero, it doesn't really matter how good they (your opponents) are.  Perhaps they haven't really been tested yet - - that's certainly possible, but you can't ask a team to hold their opponents to fewer than zero, so either way, they have taken care of business on that end - regardless of the quality of the opponent.  I understand, the "yeah, but they haven't played anyone" argument, or I know where it's coming from, but again, you can't hold your opponents to a combined total of less than zero. 

Again - I'm not crowning anyone; I'm just pointing out something interesting to me.  As far as Pigskin ratings go, Honey Grove's opponents have an average rating of about 104.  I'm assuming you are referring to Cooper.  They have a rating of about 141.  So on paper, clearly the best team Honey Grove will face up to that point.  Looks to be their biggest test for sure.  Cooper also has a bye this week, so they will have had a couple of weeks to prepare for HG.

Honey Grove's opponents have averaged 28 points per game.  Cooper is averaging 50 ppg.  So clearly the highest-scoring team they will have faced.

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1 hour ago, KirtFalcon said:

Garrison vs Timpson will be a war .... we lost last year on Special Teams because the substitute kicker kicked deep TWICE to Bussey .... big mistake .... he is dynamic in the open field .... take away those two bone head mistakes and we win that game .... I believe both Timpson and Garrison are better this year .... big rivalry game against two powerhouse teams 7 miles apart separated by the Attoyac River  ... it's The Battle of the Attoyac 2023 ....

Honey Nut don't want none of this .... :woot:

I ran my normal numbers game for Garrison vs Timpson using stats up to this point.  I realize it's a couple of weeks before this game so the numbers will change leading up to the game, but as it stands now :

Garrison is scoring 53.0 ppg against defenses that allow 31.3 per game.  Or 21.7 more points than those defenses normally allow.  Garrison is holding teams that score on average 27.2 per game to just 9.4 - or 17.8 fewer points than those offenses generally score.  This combined gives Garrison a total swing of +39.5 points.  Meaning this is how much Garrison swings their opponents out of their average game.  Timpson wins their games by an average of 38.8 points.  Since Garrison's swing is 39.5, then they swing Timpson's average margin of victory into their favor...and then another 0.7 points in Garrison's favor.  That predicts a Garrison win - by 1 point (36-35 is the prediction).  This is if Garrison does to Timpson what they normally do to their opponents.

Timpson is scoring 53.2 ppg against defenses that give up 24.8 per game (28.4 more) and holding teams that average 39.9 ppg to 14.3 (25.6 fewer).  This is a total swing of +54.0 points.  Garrison wins their games by an average of 43.6 points, so applying Timpson's swing to this, it predicts a Timpson win by 10-11. (38-27 is the prediction).  This is if Timpson does to Garrison what they normally do to their opponents.

The average of these two games comes out to a final prediction of :

Timpson - 37

Garrison - 32

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1 hour ago, Pax said:

I ran my normal numbers game for Garrison vs Timpson using stats up to this point.  I realize it's a couple of weeks before this game so the numbers will change leading up to the game, but as it stands now :

Garrison is scoring 53.0 ppg against defenses that allow 31.3 per game.  Or 21.7 more points than those defenses normally allow.  Garrison is holding teams that score on average 27.2 per game to just 9.4 - or 17.8 fewer points than those offenses generally score.  This combined gives Garrison a total swing of +39.5 points.  Meaning this is how much Garrison swings their opponents out of their average game.  Timpson wins their games by an average of 38.8 points.  Since Garrison's swing is 39.5, then they swing Timpson's average margin of victory into their favor...and then another 0.7 points in Garrison's favor.  That predicts a Garrison win - by 1 point (36-35 is the prediction).  This is if Garrison does to Timpson what they normally do to their opponents.

Timpson is scoring 53.2 ppg against defenses that give up 24.8 per game (28.4 more) and holding teams that average 39.9 ppg to 14.3 (25.6 fewer).  This is a total swing of +54.0 points.  Garrison wins their games by an average of 43.6 points, so applying Timpson's swing to this, it predicts a Timpson win by 10-11. (38-27 is the prediction).  This is if Timpson does to Garrison what they normally do to their opponents.

The average of these two games comes out to a final prediction of :

Timpson - 37

Garrison - 32

That's some great analytical mathmatics based on pure numbers, but it doesn't factor in some other important information .... Two big flaws in that analysis .... first Timpson has played a MUCH tougher schedule against highly ranked higher classification teams than Garrison .... that made their points scored lower and points allowed higher ... that's in their favor .... Garrison has played a MUCH weaker schedule and could have scored a lot more points if we wanted to run the score up ... most games we had a running clock in the 2nd half to speed up the game .... you say we are averaging 53 ppg ... hell, we could be averaging 65+ if we wanted to  .... 

Your numbers and analytical data is great ... but it really misses the things that don't show up pure numbers wise ...

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy what you do ... but as the late Paul Harver used to say, "and now for the rest of the story" ....

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7 minutes ago, KirtFalcon said:

That's some great analytical mathmatics based on pure numbers, but it doesn't factor in some other important information .... Two big flaws in that analysis .... first Timpson has played a MUCH tougher schedule against highly ranked higher classification teams than Garrison .... that made their points scored lower and points allowed higher ... that's in their favor .... Garrison has played a MUCH weaker schedule and could have scored a lot more points if we wanted to run the score up ... most games we had a running clock in the 2nd half to speed up the game .... you say we are averaging 53 ppg ... hell, we could be averaging 65+ if we wanted to  .... 

Your numbers and analytical data is great ... but it really misses the things that don't show up pure numbers wise ...

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy what you do ... but as the late Paul Harver used to say, "and now for the rest of the story" ....

 

Strength of schedule is absolutely accounted for.  I would also disagree that Timpson has played a much tougher schedule.  Tougher?  Yes.  Much tougher, not really.  The average rating of Timpson opponents is 123.  The average Garrison opponent has a rating of 111.  So, Timpson opponents are on average about 12 points better than Garrison opponents.  This according to Pigskin ratings.  MY method uses something I call "swing".  And the difference between Timpson and Garrison in this stat of mine is 14 in Timpson's favor, so on par with Pigskin.  Meaning, I'm accounting for Timpson's stronger strength of shedule in the math, just perhaps not as drastically as you think it should be and maybe not as transparently, but this 14-point differential in strength of schedule is absolutely factored into my predictions.

I've been doing this for about 6 or 7 years now.  I've run the numbers the exact same way for the most part for that amount of time with very few tweaks.  Hundreds of games, and far more often than not, the predictions are pretty close.  They are horribly wrong on occasion of course, but pretty close the vast majority of the time. 

Now, all that said, I'm not necessarily predicting who will win the game - - I use all this more to get an idea of the TYPE of game to expect, and in this case, my "prediction" is not necessarily who will win, but rather the type of game to expect, and in this case - a high-scoring one or two-score game.  That's REALLY what I'm predicting; not necessarily the winner.  I have Timpson winning by 5.  If Garrison wins by 5 in a 30+ to 30+ type game, I consider my prediction accurate even though I would have predicted the wrong winner - if that makes sense.  What I'm going for is what type of game to expect.  A close, high-scoring game.  That's my ACTUAL prediction.  I predict a winner simply because the math spits out one, so I include the final score my algorithm comes up with.  37-32.  If it's a blowout one way or the other, I would have gotten another one wrong.  It's certainly happened before.  We are just all having fun here. 

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On 10/12/2023 at 9:15 PM, Pax said:

 

 

Strength of schedule is absolutely accounted for.  I would also disagree that Timpson has played a much tougher schedule.  Tougher?  Yes.  Much tougher, not really.  The average rating of Timpson opponents is 123.  The average Garrison opponent has a rating of 111.  So, Timpson opponents are on average about 12 points better than Garrison opponents.  This according to Pigskin ratings.  MY method uses something I call "swing".  And the difference between Timpson and Garrison in this stat of mine is 14 in Timpson's favor, so on par with Pigskin.  Meaning, I'm accounting for Timpson's stronger strength of shedule in the math, just perhaps not as drastically as you think it should be and maybe not as transparently, but this 14-point differential in strength of schedule is absolutely factored into my predictions.

I've been doing this for about 6 or 7 years now.  I've run the numbers the exact same way for the most part for that amount of time with very few tweaks.  Hundreds of games, and far more often than not, the predictions are pretty close.  They are horribly wrong on occasion of course, but pretty close the vast majority of the time. 

Now, all that said, I'm not necessarily predicting who will win the game - - I use all this more to get an idea of the TYPE of game to expect, and in this case, my "prediction" is not necessarily who will win, but rather the type of game to expect, and in this case - a high-scoring one or two-score game.  That's REALLY what I'm predicting; not necessarily the winner.  I have Timpson winning by 5.  If Garrison wins by 5 in a 30+ to 30+ type game, I consider my prediction accurate even though I would have predicted the wrong winner - if that makes sense.  What I'm going for is what type of game to expect.  A close, high-scoring game.  That's my ACTUAL prediction.  I predict a winner simply because the math spits out one, so I include the final score my algorithm comes up with.  37-32.  If it's a blowout one way or the other, I would have gotten another one wrong.  It's certainly happened before.  We are just all having fun here. 

Over the years, there have been some real upsets with these two schools .... Garrison is not used to losing to Timpson .... Garrison has won probably 2/3 of the games in our historical series .... The Terry Bussey era is about to be over ... thank goodness ......

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53 minutes ago, Warriorborn said:

Yes of course. Will Cooper hold up if things start turning south?

Yes of course. Will hg hold up if things start turning south against a team that can punch them in the mouth & is not scared of them? Can hg hold up playing in a big game?

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1 minute ago, TIMRIGGINS said:

I didn't want to read all of this...Is this thread about honey grove and gunter or honey grove and cooper?

last I read it was Honey Grove and the Dillon Panthers. Ole boy from the grove said they were going to take yall to the wood shed!

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Just now, Bulldognation1 said:

Hg & Cooper…. but there are some hg fans that think they can play with Gunter 🤣

Honey grove is really good. You don't post numbers like that without being good....My thoughts...Honey Grove loses a close one to Cooper and gets blown out by Gunter

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On 10/11/2023 at 5:24 PM, Pax said:

I don't know anything about how the coaches at Honey Grove handle blow outs, but I generally assume that teams that are blowing out everyone put the backups in like everyone else does.  I'm not trying to make the argument that Honey Grove is better or worse than anyone else - - or what they would do with any other schedule.  The fact remains that they are the only team out of 1,501 teams in the state of Texas that have yet to give up a point.  You bring up Garrison, so I'll just throw it out there - Garrison is beating their opponents by an average score of 53-9.  Garrison's opponents have an average rating of 111.  This just a tad better than Honey Grove's opponents whose average rating is 106.  This is pretty much as close to an even schedule as you'll see.  So, I don't think Garrison has had a considerably tougher schedule; just a marginally better one.  In context of the rest of the state, pretty much an even strength of schedule.  It's worth noting that HG is beating their opponents by an average score of 55 points.  In other words - - their average score is 55-0.  This against a schedule that is comparable to Garrison's.  By the way, that 55-point average margin of victory is also good enough for the highest average margin of victory in all of Texas across all classifications both public and private.  It is again - if nothing else - worthy of noting.  It's not like they are playing bottom-of-the-barrel teams.  Again, their strength of schedule is on par with the team you bring up in comparison. 

Just curious, what is the average rating for Cooper's opponents?

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