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Honey Grove vs Cooper { ghost of Gunter} next week


blueflu

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On 10/18/2023 at 12:01 PM, Pax said:

I posted earlier in this thread and predicted a 40-0 HG win.  They've each played a game since then, so adding those games into the equation, I get a HG win, 35-0.  This is using a different method though - and I only used it because there is a flaw in the way my calculations work.  The flaw only exists because HG allows so few points, so I don't use it that often.  A boring and possibly confusing explanation : 

It's kind of complicated.  Using my normal method, I get a Honey Grove win, 43-20.  My normal method just uses straight up points.  The flaw in my system is that if a team is shutting out literally everyone they play, there is sort of a threshold that doesn't allow the "math" to actually tell how good a defense is.  Thru 5 games, HG held each opponent to zero points.  The average offense HG faced scores 26.9 points per game, and HG's defense on average held opponents to 26.9 fewer points than they average.  The flaw is that if Honey Grove's defense is better than 26.9 points, the math wouldn't show it because they can only hold their opponents to zero.  And if that team only averages 27 points a game, then they will have only held them to 27 points fewer than they average, so being that Honey Grove's opponents average 27 points per game, their defense cannot hold them to more than 27 points fewer.  Make sense?  In other words, there is no way to tell if they WOULD HAVE held them to zero even if they average 30, 35, 40 points a game.  Up until this most recent game where they gave up what I think was a cheap field goal, they have faced teams that average 31, 35, and 40 points per game - and Honey Grove held each of these opponents to zero - so in THOSE games, they held their opponents to 31 fewer, 35 fewer, and 40 fewer than they average respectively.  If I had applied my "x" amount fewer than they average method - - which is only 27 points, then I would have had all three of those teams scoring points.  However, if I use a "percentage" method instead, I get a 35-0 prediction.  Honey Grove has held their opponents to about 1.8% of what they average.  Cooper averages 45.3 points per game, and 1.8% of this is 0.82 points.  Since scoring 1 and only 1 point is extremely unlikely, I just made it 0 in the 35-0 prediction that uses this percentage method.  The absolute method (which is what I use pretty much 100% of the time, I get a 43-20 Honey Grove win.

I realize how much I'm overthinking all this.  I hope I didn't bore everyone.

My 36-20 was pretty close this week. The chicken bones beat the computer this week lol. Thanks for keeping it interesting on here.

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9 hours ago, ShoelessJoe said:

So I went back and looked at the predictions.  Pax said HG 40-0 or his last projection was 35-0.  I told him that I thought that was way out there.  Wish he would let us know about his prediction of Cooper getting shut out by HG.  HG’s schedule was so bad compared to Cooper’s
 

Bulldogbacker said 36-20.  Very close prediction.

Cooper QB put the team on his shoulders and led them to victory.  Cooper has so many weapons on the field, and their O line controlled the LOS.  The HG QB, only a soph is the real deal.  He will play on Saturday’s but not at QB, but probably as a slot receiver.  HG had some good LB’ers.

 

You might say I had a little insight on the talent of both teams.

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4 hours ago, Warriorborn said:

HG couldn't stop shooting their selves in the foot

That tends to happen to lesser teams that aren't use to playing under pressure in big games. Cooper was just better & made hg pay for their mistakes. Cooper had 3 turnovers of their own & hg wasn't good enough to make them pay. It’s ok to just admit Cooper is better & quit making excuses. Better luck next year.

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