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STATE SEMIFINAL: Daingerfield vs Tidehaven Thursday 7 PM @ Randall Reed Stadium in New Caney


TigerBlue09

Daingerfield vs. Tidehaven   

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Considering all games played :

Daingerfield is scoring 39.1 per game against teams that give up 28.7 on average (about 10.3 more), and they are holding teams that average 35.6 per game to 13.2 (22.4 fewer).  Overall swing for DF is a +32.7.

Tidehaven is scoring 45.2 per game against teams allowing 22.1 on average (23.1 more), and they hold teams that average 26.9 per game to 5.3 (21.6 fewer).

Using all these games, I get a Tidehaven win, 30-16.

If I take each team's best 3 "swing" games, I get a result of Tidehaven, 28-24 - so much tighter game if both teams bring their A-game.

Using the worst 3 swing games for each team, I get a Tidehaven 32-10 win.

Tidehaven's best 3 swing games vs DF's worst three, and I get Tidehaven, 48-6.

Daingerfield's best 3 vs Tidehaven's worst three, and I get Daingerfield, 31-12.

These last two I consider the range of possibilities based on what each team has done so far through the entire season.

Only considering district and playoff games, I get Tidehaven, 25-21.

Only considering playoff games, I get a Daingerfield win, 32-31.

I'm going to break it down even more here.....

Only considering district and playoff opponents who hold teams to fewer than 20 points (in other words - how the teams perform against solid defenses), I get a Daingerfield win, 27-15.

Only considering district and playoff opponents who score 35 or more points per game, I get Daingerfield in a 27-19 game.

Tidehaven looks like the better team on paper when you consider the whole season, but the more you get into the season - and particularly in the playoffs, from a numbers perspective, I give Daingerfield the edge.  It looks like they've bumped it up in nitty-gritty time on paper and perform better against better teams.  Tidehaven is certainly one of those better teams Daingerfield will have played, and it's certainly nitty gritty time.  I think Daingerfield takes it.

I'm going to take Daingerfield in a tight, semi-low scoring, one-score game.  Something like 28-21 or 27-20.

I hope to see one of you in the state championship game the following week against Gunter.  We've got our hands full of Canadians this week.  If we make it, I hope to see Daingerfield.  That would be a cool championship game I think. 

Edited by Pax
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13 minutes ago, Pax said:

Considering all games played :

Daingerfield is scoring 39.1 per game against teams that give up 28.7 on average (about 10.3 more), and they are holding teams that average 35.6 per game to 13.2 (22.4 fewer).  Overall swing for DF is a +32.7.

Tidehaven is scoring 45.2 per game against teams allowing 22.1 on average (23.1 more), and they hold teams that average 26.9 per game to 5.3 (21.6 fewer).

Using all these games, I get a Tidehaven win, 30-16.

If I take each team's best 3 "swing" games, I get a result of Tidehaven, 28-24 - so much tighter game if both teams bring their A-game.

Using the worst 3 swing games for each team, I get a Tidehaven 32-10 win.

Tidehaven's best 3 swing games vs DF's worst three, and I get Tidehaven, 48-6.

Daingerfield's best 3 vs Tidehaven's worst three, and I get Daingerfield, 31-12.

These last two I consider the range of possibilities based on what each team has done so far through the entire season.

Only considering district and playoff games, I get Tidehaven, 25-21.

Only considering playoff games, I get a Daingerfield win, 32-31.

I'm going to break it down even more here.....

Only considering district and playoff opponents who hold teams to fewer than 20 points (in other words - how the teams perform against solid defenses), I get a Daingerfield win, 27-15.

Only considering district and playoff opponents who score 35 or more points per game, I get Daingerfield in a 27-19 game.

Tidehaven looks like the better team on paper when you consider the whole season, but the more you get into the season - and particularly in the playoffs, from a numbers perspective, I give Daingerfield the edge.  It looks like they've bumped it up in nitty-gritty time on paper and perform better against better teams.  Tidehaven is certainly one of those better teams Daingerfield will have played, and it's certainly nitty gritty time.  I think Daingerfield takes it.

I'm going to take Daingerfield in a tight, semi-low scoring, one-score game.  Something like 28-21 or 27-20.

I hope to see one of you in the state championship game the following week against Gunter.  We've got our hands full of Canadians this week.  If we make it, I hope to see Daingerfield.  That would be a cool championship game I think. 

We gotta get this win first. But I definitely want a Gunter/dfield matchup.  But the one thing numbers don't account for is the level of competition we've played in the playoffs compared to tidehaven.we have had a much tougher route and dominated. 

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Just now, dfield68,83,85,08,09,10 said:

We gotta get this win first. But I definitely want a Gunter/dfield matchup.  But the one thing numbers don't account for is the level of competition we've played in the playoffs compared to tidehaven.we have had a much tougher route and dominated. 

And I see that you broke it down that way with the good teams we played. But still the good teams we played against. Would destroy the "good" teams tidehaven has played.

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I need someone to convince me to make that 4hr drive!!!!   I want to see the True Blue Tigers beat the snot out of those southern Tigers. But my back keeps saying don't do it. 

My lady thinks I'm nuts when I jump up and yell at home.

I'm going damn it!      35 - 20. Daingerfield

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1 hour ago, Pax said:

Considering all games played :

Daingerfield is scoring 39.1 per game against teams that give up 28.7 on average (about 10.3 more), and they are holding teams that average 35.6 per game to 13.2 (22.4 fewer).  Overall swing for DF is a +32.7.

Tidehaven is scoring 45.2 per game against teams allowing 22.1 on average (23.1 more), and they hold teams that average 26.9 per game to 5.3 (21.6 fewer).

Using all these games, I get a Tidehaven win, 30-16.

If I take each team's best 3 "swing" games, I get a result of Tidehaven, 28-24 - so much tighter game if both teams bring their A-game.

Using the worst 3 swing games for each team, I get a Tidehaven 32-10 win.

Tidehaven's best 3 swing games vs DF's worst three, and I get Tidehaven, 48-6.

Daingerfield's best 3 vs Tidehaven's worst three, and I get Daingerfield, 31-12.

These last two I consider the range of possibilities based on what each team has done so far through the entire season.

Only considering district and playoff games, I get Tidehaven, 25-21.

Only considering playoff games, I get a Daingerfield win, 32-31.

I'm going to break it down even more here.....

Only considering district and playoff opponents who hold teams to fewer than 20 points (in other words - how the teams perform against solid defenses), I get a Daingerfield win, 27-15.

Only considering district and playoff opponents who score 35 or more points per game, I get Daingerfield in a 27-19 game.

Tidehaven looks like the better team on paper when you consider the whole season, but the more you get into the season - and particularly in the playoffs, from a numbers perspective, I give Daingerfield the edge.  It looks like they've bumped it up in nitty-gritty time on paper and perform better against better teams.  Tidehaven is certainly one of those better teams Daingerfield will have played, and it's certainly nitty gritty time.  I think Daingerfield takes it.

I'm going to take Daingerfield in a tight, semi-low scoring, one-score game.  Something like 28-21 or 27-20.

I hope to see one of you in the state championship game the following week against Gunter.  We've got our hands full of Canadians this week.  If we make it, I hope to see Daingerfield.  That would be a cool championship game I think. 

Yeah sorry man you’re way wrong . Honestly at this point numbers don’t matter. It’s about matchups . What a team does good compared to what the other don’t . Tidehaven level of competition is so bad. I been keeping up with dfield this playoffs, this game won’t be close . You put Tidehaven in Region 3 they would be out the playoffs. It’s 3-4 teams better than Tidehaven in region 3. Dfield speed and size will kill them. Tigers beat newton by 21 and Newton is better than Tidehaven. I’m going Dfield by 28+

Edited by MUSTANGS07
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1 hour ago, Pax said:

Considering all games played :

Daingerfield is scoring 39.1 per game against teams that give up 28.7 on average (about 10.3 more), and they are holding teams that average 35.6 per game to 13.2 (22.4 fewer).  Overall swing for DF is a +32.7.

Tidehaven is scoring 45.2 per game against teams allowing 22.1 on average (23.1 more), and they hold teams that average 26.9 per game to 5.3 (21.6 fewer).

Using all these games, I get a Tidehaven win, 30-16.

If I take each team's best 3 "swing" games, I get a result of Tidehaven, 28-24 - so much tighter game if both teams bring their A-game.

Using the worst 3 swing games for each team, I get a Tidehaven 32-10 win.

Tidehaven's best 3 swing games vs DF's worst three, and I get Tidehaven, 48-6.

Daingerfield's best 3 vs Tidehaven's worst three, and I get Daingerfield, 31-12.

These last two I consider the range of possibilities based on what each team has done so far through the entire season.

Only considering district and playoff games, I get Tidehaven, 25-21.

Only considering playoff games, I get a Daingerfield win, 32-31.

I'm going to break it down even more here.....

Only considering district and playoff opponents who hold teams to fewer than 20 points (in other words - how the teams perform against solid defenses), I get a Daingerfield win, 27-15.

Only considering district and playoff opponents who score 35 or more points per game, I get Daingerfield in a 27-19 game.

Tidehaven looks like the better team on paper when you consider the whole season, but the more you get into the season - and particularly in the playoffs, from a numbers perspective, I give Daingerfield the edge.  It looks like they've bumped it up in nitty-gritty time on paper and perform better against better teams.  Tidehaven is certainly one of those better teams Daingerfield will have played, and it's certainly nitty gritty time.  I think Daingerfield takes it.

I'm going to take Daingerfield in a tight, semi-low scoring, one-score game.  Something like 28-21 or 27-20.

I hope to see one of you in the state championship game the following week against Gunter.  We've got our hands full of Canadians this week.  If we make it, I hope to see Daingerfield.  That would be a cool championship game I think. 

Man the way you put all those numbers is impressive I’m not going to lie I be waiting on you to post all the time lol

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3 hours ago, Pax said:

Considering all games played :

Daingerfield is scoring 39.1 per game against teams that give up 28.7 on average (about 10.3 more), and they are holding teams that average 35.6 per game to 13.2 (22.4 fewer).  Overall swing for DF is a +32.7.

Tidehaven is scoring 45.2 per game against teams allowing 22.1 on average (23.1 more), and they hold teams that average 26.9 per game to 5.3 (21.6 fewer).

Using all these games, I get a Tidehaven win, 30-16.

If I take each team's best 3 "swing" games, I get a result of Tidehaven, 28-24 - so much tighter game if both teams bring their A-game.

Using the worst 3 swing games for each team, I get a Tidehaven 32-10 win.

Tidehaven's best 3 swing games vs DF's worst three, and I get Tidehaven, 48-6.

Daingerfield's best 3 vs Tidehaven's worst three, and I get Daingerfield, 31-12.

These last two I consider the range of possibilities based on what each team has done so far through the entire season.

Only considering district and playoff games, I get Tidehaven, 25-21.

Only considering playoff games, I get a Daingerfield win, 32-31.

I'm going to break it down even more here.....

Only considering district and playoff opponents who hold teams to fewer than 20 points (in other words - how the teams perform against solid defenses), I get a Daingerfield win, 27-15.

Only considering district and playoff opponents who score 35 or more points per game, I get Daingerfield in a 27-19 game.

Tidehaven looks like the better team on paper when you consider the whole season, but the more you get into the season - and particularly in the playoffs, from a numbers perspective, I give Daingerfield the edge.  It looks like they've bumped it up in nitty-gritty time on paper and perform better against better teams.  Tidehaven is certainly one of those better teams Daingerfield will have played, and it's certainly nitty gritty time.  I think Daingerfield takes it.

I'm going to take Daingerfield in a tight, semi-low scoring, one-score game.  Something like 28-21 or 27-20.

I hope to see one of you in the state championship game the following week against Gunter.  We've got our hands full of Canadians this week.  If we make it, I hope to see Daingerfield.  That would be a cool championship game I think. 

With all your extensive and detailed work have you just ONCE considered the strength of schedule? It's kinda easy to shut out teams like the Tubi Timberwolves and Bearville Cougars. If the Tigers play as I expect I figure a 35-42 - 21 type game with the Tigers on top. We'll see

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2 minutes ago, KrookedWolfe said:

With all your extensive and detailed work have you just ONCE considered the strength of schedule? It's kinda easy to shut out teams like the Tubi Timberwolves and Bearville Cougars. If the Tigers play as I expect I figure a 35-42 - 21 type game with the Tigers on top. We'll see

Pax I didn't realize how many Tiger fans had addressed your assessment before I posted. Basically most of us are on the same page. Tigers win regardless of margin. 

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Daingerfield can definitely beat anybody in the state. As long as they show up ready and don't beat themselves, which since playoffs started they have left no doubt. Believe they have what it takes. Hope to see them toe to toe with Gunter/Canadian. 

Edited by CharlieTweeder
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34 minutes ago, KrookedWolfe said:

Pax I didn't realize how many Tiger fans had addressed your assessment before I posted. Basically most of us are on the same page. Tigers win regardless of margin. 

I do in fact consider strength of schedule - in my own way - which works more often than not.  Im not trying to offend people with my predictions.  Just what i do for fun.  I certainly don't get many people offended that I picked their team to win....but by not enough points!  That's a new one.

How I consider strength of schedule :

Each game gets something I call "swing".  If you beat a team by 40 points that loses by 40 points on average, your swing is zero.  You don't get credit for doing to a team what every other team does to them on average.  If you beat a team by 40 that on average loses by 10, you get a +30 for that game.  If you beat a team by 20 that beats other teams by 20, you get a +40.  It's how much you "swing" that team out of their average game.  + is in hour favor, - in the other direction.

For example, if you beat a team by 10 that LOSES on average by 20, you get a -10 for that game - even though you won.  This is my way of taking into account strength of schedule, and it works well most of the time.  If I'm way off, I'm way off, and ive certainly been way off before.  I'm just punching numbers into a spreadsheet.  I'm not praying to the gods. 

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47 minutes ago, KrookedWolfe said:

Pax I didn't realize how many Tiger fans had addressed your assessment before I posted. Basically most of us are on the same page. Tigers win regardless of margin. 

The Tidehaven offense looks relatively consistent, but the defense is weak. That will be the difference maker in this game. 

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4 minutes ago, Pax said:

I do in fact consider strength of schedule - in my own way - which works more often than not.  Im not trying to offend people with my predictions.  Just what i do for fun.  I certainly don't get many people offended that I picked their team to win....but by not enough points!  That's a new one.

How I consider strength of schedule :

Each game gets something I call "swing".  If you beat a team by 40 points that loses by 40 points on average, your swing is zero.  You don't get credit for doing to a team what every other team does to them on average.  If you beat a team by 40 that on average loses by 10, you get a +30 for that game.  If you beat a team by 20 that beats other teams by 20, you get a +40.  It's how much you "swing" that team out of their average game.  + is in hour favor, - in the other direction.

For example, if you beat a team by 10 that LOSES on average by 20, you get a -10 for that game - even though you won.  This is my way of taking into account strength of schedule, and it works well most of the time.  If I'm way off, I'm way off, and ive certainly been way off before.  I'm just punching numbers into a spreadsheet.  I'm not praying to the gods. 

Don't misunderstand Pax. I'm most certainly not offended by your predictions. It was just a question is all. I find it very interesting to read your assessments of the games. All questions and predictions will be answered in the next couple of weeks. 💯 

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24 minutes ago, KrookedWolfe said:

The Tidehaven offense looks relatively consistent, but the defense is weak. That will be the difference maker in this game. 

I think the opposite is true.  Their defense is categorically not weak.  They have the #3 defense in the state of Texas across all 11-man classifications 2A thru 6A from a standpoint of points allowed per game.  You can blame SOME of that on a weak schedule; not all of it.  You can't be ranked 3rd among almost 2,000 teams because your entire schedule was just that much weaker than the other 1,800 teams.  After 2 games?  Maybe.  After 14, things start to even out a bit.  

In either case, my method takes strength of schedule into account in a sort of roundabout way.  And I may be way off.  I'd be totally fine with that.  Everyone makes predictions.  Some people are going to pick against you - and I didn't even do that which makes this an interesting conversation for me.

In their first 11 games, 8 were shutouts and 3 they allowed just one score.  The first game they have allowed more than one score was 2 weeks ago.  I have Dangerfield matching the most points they've allowed all year.  I think Daingerfield will be the best team they've faced - and I picked Daingerfield to win.  The slight beratement over that *_from DAINGERFIELD fans_* is quite perplexing.  Just doing my thing here.  Just like everyone else.

Edited by Pax
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18 minutes ago, Pax said:

I think the opposite is true.  Their defense is categorically not weak.  They have the #3 defense in the state of Texas across all 11-man classifications 2A thru 6A from a standpoint of points allowed per game.  You can blame SOME of that on a weak schedule; not all of it.  You can't be ranked 3rd among almost 2,000 teams because your entire schedule was just that much weaker than the other 1,800 teams.  After 2 games?  Maybe.  After 14, things start to even out a bit.  

In either case, my method takes strength of schedule into account in a sort of roundabout way.  And I may be way off.  I'd be totally fine with that.  Everyone makes predictions.  Some people are going to pick against you - and I didn't even do that which makes this an interesting conversation for me.

In their first 11 games, 8 were shutouts and 3 they allowed just one score.  The first game they have allowed more than one score was 2 weeks ago.  I have Dangerfield matching the most points they've allowed all year.  I think Daingerfield will be the best team they've faced - and I picked Daingerfield to win.  The slight beratement over that is quite perplexing.....

In Pax We Trust

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10 minutes ago, Pax said:

I think the opposite is true.  Their defense is categorically not weak.  They have the #3 defense in the state of Texas across all 11-man classifications 2A thru 6A from a standpoint of points allowed per game.  You can blame SOME of that on a weak schedule; not all of it.  You can't be ranked 3rd among almost 2,000 teams because your entire schedule was just that much weaker than the other 1,800 teams.  After 2 games?  Maybe.  After 14, things start to even out a bit.  

In either case, my method takes strength of schedule into account in a sort of roundabout way.  And I may be way off.  I'd be totally fine with that.  Everyone makes predictions.  Some people are going to pick against you - and I didn't even do that which makes this an interesting conversation for me.

From all I can see the the type of defense they use is built around stopping the run. Dfield will force a lot of one on one situations. They will have a very hard time containing the Tiger offense.  In my opinion only, I think we will use our defense primarily to stop the run. We can go man on receiver because they usually only split one outside. Needless to say we have a above average safety.. I feel the Tigers have the edge on special teams. We'll see 👀 

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3 minutes ago, KrookedWolfe said:

From all I can see the the type of defense they use is built around stopping the run. Dfield will force a lot of one on one situations. They will have a very hard time containing the Tiger offense.  In my opinion only, I think we will use our defense primarily to stop the run. We can go man on receiver because they usually only split one outside. Needless to say we have a above average safety.. I feel the Tigers have the edge on special teams. We'll see 👀 

Which is why I predict DAINGERFIELD TO WIN!!

This is weird, yall!

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1 minute ago, KrookedWolfe said:

Don't get so sensitive buddy. Since it's weird to ya we can stop and reconvene after the game(OR NOT lol)   You have a assessment and so do I.

Dfield 45-21

✌️

You're conflating sensitivity and confusion.  I predict a DF win.  I WANT a DF win.  I've said as much in these comments.  

And yes - we both have our own predictions.  Notice how I have no comment on yours other than to acknowledge its existence.  The irony in saying I'm the sensitive one is absolutely astonishing to me.  Good luck.  Hope Gunter makes it past Canadian and gets to face Daingerfield in the championship game.

 

******happily leaves the conversation

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6 minutes ago, Pax said:

You're conflating sensitivity and confusion.  I predict a DF win.  I WANT a DF win.  I've said as much in these comments.  

And yes - we both have our own predictions.  Notice how I have no comment on yours other than to acknowledge its existence.  The irony in saying I'm the sensitive one is absolutely astonishing to me.  Good luck.  Hope Gunter makes it past Canadian and gets to face Daingerfield in the championship game.

 

******happily leaves the conversation

Sensitive in regard to your comment "this is weird y'all " in which I absorb as an effort to gain support because you want to be right and can't stand being questioned. I get it 😆 🤣.  Thanks for your disguised support!! 

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5 minutes ago, KrookedWolfe said:

Sensitive in regard to your comment "this is weird y'all " in which I absorb as an effort to gain support because you want to be right and can't stand being questioned. I get it 😆 🤣.  Thanks for your disguised support!! 

It's not disguised.  I have literally stated I want DF to win.  If that was was supposed to be disguised, I suck at it.

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32 minutes ago, Pax said:

You're conflating sensitivity and confusion.  I predict a DF win.  I WANT a DF win.  I've said as much in these comments.  

And yes - we both have our own predictions.  Notice how I have no comment on yours other than to acknowledge its existence.  The irony in saying I'm the sensitive one is absolutely astonishing to me.  Good luck.  Hope Gunter makes it past Canadian and gets to face Daingerfield in the championship game.

 

******happily leaves the conversation

If you’re prediction is close, you should be a bookmaker 

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1 hour ago, KrookedWolfe said:

From all I can see the the type of defense they use is built around stopping the run. Dfield will force a lot of one on one situations. They will have a very hard time containing the Tiger offense.  In my opinion only, I think we will use our defense primarily to stop the run. We can go man on receiver because they usually only split one outside. Needless to say we have a above average safety.. I feel the Tigers have the edge on special teams. We'll see 👀 

Exactly what I saw. They don't have a lot of back end speed...DField is going to take the top off of that defense. Tigers just can't play sloppy and keep them in the game late. These kind of teams can be a pest late in a game with a solid RB. I think Dfield rolls...

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47 minutes ago, kingwolf said:

Exactly what I saw. They don't have a lot of back end speed...DField is going to take the top off of that defense. Tigers just can't play sloppy and keep them in the game late. These kind of teams can be a pest late in a game with a solid RB. I think Dfield rolls...

We gotta light up the scoreboard and make stops. Tidehaven is coming to play and will give it their best shot. We gotta stay focused and play disciplined ball. 

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I was looking at the regular season schedule for Daingerfield. Over the course of the season, the Tigers performed admirably. Suddenly something happened to rouse the sleepy giants. Yawl peeked just in time. Tidehaven is a well-organized group. If Daingerfield wants to win and go to Jerry's World, they must play mistake-free ball and refrain from little penalties. If Daingerfield concentrates and plays error-free, I think they'll win by a score of seven. Daingerfield possesses speed, and speed kills.

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