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STATE SEMIFINAL: Canadian vs Gunter Friday 6 PM @ ACU in Abilene


THEHARDWAY

Canadian vs. Gunter  

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This game is gonna be a barn burner in my estimation. Gunter will no doubt be the favorite, but Canadian looks legitimate. This Canadian team looks  like the 2017-18 team. Their Qb looks just like The Cavalier kid at quarterback. He will run hard and knock your head off in the process. I will pay to watch this one. How about ya’ll.

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  • RETIREDFAN1 changed the title to STATE SEMIFINAL: Canadian vs Gunter
14 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said:

This game is gonna be a barn burner in my estimation. Gunter will no doubt be the favorite, but Canadian looks legitimate. This Canadian team looks  like the 2017-18 team. Their Qb looks just like The Cavalier kid at quarterback. He will run hard and knock your head off in the process. I will pay to watch this one. How about ya’ll.

Funny you say that, as it’s his little brother. He is not as big, but is a much better passer and much more elusive. Should be a good one!

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1 minute ago, THEHARDWAY said:

Funny you say that, as it’s his little brother. He is not as big, but is a much better passer and much more elusive. Should be a good one!

Sorry about the duel topics, I looked for one  but didn’t find it. I have watched him on a couple games, and was impressed. Gunter gonna be hard to beat. They can beat teams by sheer numbers, and talent. They have 56 kids on their roster, and can substitute freely W/O a let down in talent. I’m pulling for the Wildcats. Been a fan because  your long time coach who is a sweetheart of a man. Can’t remember his name. I understand ya’ll have a new coach now.

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9 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said:

Sorry about the duel topics, I looked for one  but didn’t find it. I have watched him on a couple games, and was impressed. Gunter gonna be hard to beat. They can beat teams by sheer numbers, and talent. They have 56 kids on their roster, and can substitute freely W/O a let down in talent. I’m pulling for the Wildcats. Been a fan because  your long time coach who is a sweetheart of a man. Can’t remember his name. I understand ya’ll have a new coach now.

No worries man! Coach Koetting. Great man, had to step away due to health. Our longtime DC Coach Cavalier took over as HC.

GT can be beat. Jacksboro exposed a few things, and Canadian O is much more explosive. I think it will be a fun one!

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4 minutes ago, THEHARDWAY said:

No worries man! Coach Koetting. Great man, had to step away due to health. Our longtime DC Coach Cavalier took over as HC.

GT can be beat. Jacksboro exposed a few things, and Canadian O is much more explosive. I think it will be a fun one!

You are so right on Jacksboro exposing. I haven’t seen the replay yet, but I gave Jacksboro a chance to win. I watched a couple Gunter games an figured they could be beat. I’ll be watching on Nfhsn.

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Jacksboro sure gave Gunter some fits last night. I think the Jboro offense is more intricate in the passing game but the Jboro QB reminded me of Cavalier. Biggest positive for Canadian is that they actually have a defense. GT just doesn't have the stud RB like years past, instead relying on Overman and a bevy of WR's that will play in the backfield. Two great teams and staffs, winner heads to Arlington and claims another title. 

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  • RETIREDFAN1 changed the title to STATE SEMIFINAL: Canadian vs Gunter Friday 6 PM @ ACU in Abilene
6 hours ago, Hawkball7 said:

Jacksboro sure gave Gunter some fits last night. I think the Jboro offense is more intricate in the passing game but the Jboro QB reminded me of Cavalier. Biggest positive for Canadian is that they actually have a defense. GT just doesn't have the stud RB like years past, instead relying on Overman and a bevy of WR's that will play in the backfield. Two great teams and staffs, winner heads to Arlington and claims another title. 

Who was stud running back for the 2019 and 2022 championship teams?  Gunter has somwhow put up 845 points this year.  Another way to put it is that we don depend on one stud running back.  The ball gets spread around, by design.  The QB had over 200 yards because that is how the option read.  He is a stud though, all 145 pounds.

Edited by GTAlumnus
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14 minutes ago, GTAlumnus said:

Who was stud running back for the 2019 and 2022 championship teams?  Gunter has somwhow put up 845 points this year.  Another way to put it is that we don depend on one stud running back.  The ball gets spread around, by design.  The QB had over 200 yards because that is how the option read.  He is a stud though, all 145 pounds.

PLowe in 2019 & the Sloan/Hellman combo last year. I agree with your sentiment about spreading the ball but have felt all year they lack the big play RB. Actually think this year is a shootout unlike last years defensive game tho

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33 minutes ago, GTAlumnus said:

Who was stud running back for the 2019 and 2022 championship teams?  Gunter has somwhow put up 845 points this year.  Another way to put it is that we don depend on one stud running back.  The ball gets spread around, by design.  The QB had over 200 yards because that is how the option read.  He is a stud though, all 145 pounds.

2022 y’all had Bennet. He was a stud and game changer on offense and defense. Also Hellman at Flex that was a stud.  Not arguing with you, just saying y’all did have some dudes last year.

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24 minutes ago, THEHARDWAY said:

2022 y’all had Bennet. He was a stud and game changer on offense and defense. Also Hellman at Flex that was a stud.  Not arguing with you, just saying y’all did have some dudes last year.

Of course you are right about Bennett and Hellman.  And Lowe befor that.  I really mean we don't typically have gaudy stats from the RB position but there have been some huge game changing plays from that position. You probably remember more details about Gunter than I do and I hardly miss a game.

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39 minutes ago, Hawkball7 said:

PLowe in 2019 & the Sloan/Hellman combo last year. I agree with your sentiment about spreading the ball but have felt all year they lack the big play RB. Actually think this year is a shootout unlike last years defensive game tho

2019 Clayton Reed was in the mix too infact was offense MVP of the state final.  Sloan/Hellman ran a lot of plays from the slot /wing not always RK per se.

No doubt we lost some great impact players off of last yeart's team.

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Gunter will be favored by the computer rankings but many will favor Canadian because they lost by 1 point last year and Gunter lost more from gruduation.  Despite the losses Gunter has been great in all 3 phases.  The Jacksboro game because we didn't shut them down as we have every team we played looks like chinks on  Gunter's armor.  i saw Jacksboro and they executed very well on offense for a half,  The second half we gave up 6.  I give them some credit - they are probably the 2nd or 3rd best team we played.  Add better defense and they would have been very dangerous.

At no point did i think they would ever stop Gunter  which they did not.  But I was pretty sure Gunter will stop the bleeding and pull away, which they did.

i look for a battle (again) in Ablilene.

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Ok, so just for the heck of it, I went back and looked at all my Gunter vs Canadian predictions.  Not in depth, but just the overall prediction.  It's pretty incredible we have built up quite a history in such a short amount of time - especially considering you have to make it to the state semi-final for this game to happen. 

YEAR   PREDICTION           ACTUAL

2016    24-21 Gunter          44-34 Gunter

2017    37-31 Gunter          56-27 Gunter

2018    35-33 Gunter         17-7 Canadian

2019    33-27 Canadian     27-20 Gunter

2020    43-28 Canadian     33-6 Canadian

2022    39-32 Gunter         21-20 Gunter

I got the winner right 4 out of 6 times, so basically just a game over .500.  A lot of those games could have gone either way, so let's just say I flip a coin and throw numbers out there and pretend to know what I'm doing.  There have only really been two convincing wins I'd say.  The 2017 56-27 Gunter win (I believe they got out to a 35-7 lead and sort of traded scores from there on out.  The other convincing win was the 2020 33-6 Canadian win (the only Canadian/Gunter game I've missed - I watched a stream I'm pretty sure).  Overall, Gunter has the slight edge in average points per matchup - - outscoring Canadian by an average of 25-23.  After this week's game, Gunter and Canadian will have played 70% of a regular season's worth of state semifinal games in 8 years.  We've only missed playing once in the semifinal game in that span. 

Anyway, in this one - considering all games played :

Gunter is averaging 60.4 ppg against defenses that allow 30.5 on average (29.9 more).  Gunter is holding teams that score 34.7 on average to 6.8 per game (27.9 fewer) for a total swing of +57.8.

Canadian is averaging 60.6 ppg against defenses that allow 26.9 on average (33.8 more).  Canadian is holding teams that score 29.4 on average to 14.2 per game (15.2 fewer) for a total swing of +49.0.

Based on this, I get a 45-37 Gunter win. 

Taking Gunter's best 3 "swing" games vs Canadian's 3 best, I get a Gunter 59-40 win.

Taking each teams worst swing games, I get a Canadian 35-32 win.

Gunter's best 3 vs Canadian's worst 3, and I get 59-24 Gunter.

Canadian's 3 best vs Gunter's 3 worst, and I get 51-32 Canadian.

Considering only district and playoff games, I get Gunter in a 48-37 win.

Considering only playoff games, I get Gunter in a 48-39 win.

Only considering games by each team against opponents who allow fewer than 24 points per game, I get 49-33 Gunter.

Only considering games by each team against opponents who score more than 35 per game, I get 47-26 Gunter.

Overall average of all these arbitrary ways of looking at this game and cherry-picking this or that, and you end up in basically the same place as you would just considering the whole season for both teams.

I'm going to take Gunter in this one, 45-35, but because I don't know if this matchup will ever happen again, I'm going 44-34.  Perhaps ending it like we started it.  There's a chance Canadian moves down and Gunter moves up.  I guess it depends on where they draw the new lines, but this incredible run by both teams - all these state semifinal matchups - could be coming to an end.  Though, I've heard Canadian might be staying up one more cycle.  Can't remember who I heard that from. Or we might already know.  I've been looking at so many different things, I've probably confused myself. Either way - good luck to both teams.  I expect another good one.   

Side note, according to Pigskin, in all of 11-man football (2A-6A), Gunter is #1 in average margin of victory.  Canadian is #3.  

Edited by Pax
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