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#1 GUNTER vs #3 TIDEHAVEN- 3A Div. II UIL State Championship Game


blueflu

State Championship  

63 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Ya Got?

    • Tidehaven Tigers
    • Gunter Tigers

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  • Poll closed on 12/15/2023 at 01:00 AM

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I'm not sure Tidehaven can slow Gunter down enough to make it close.  Gunter will beat them to a spot on the field 75% of the time. Gunter is excellent with execution also. Tidehaven may be able to burn clock, but Gunter won't care.  They can score quickly breaking runs or throwing it around. Tidehaven will not be able to match the speed.

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2 minutes ago, regaleagle said:

I'm not sure Tidehaven can slow Gunter down enough to make it close.  Gunter will beat them to a spot on the field 75% of the time. Gunter is excellent with execution also. Tidehaven may be able to burn clock, but Gunter won't care.  They can score quickly breaking runs or throwing it around. Tidehaven will not be able to match the speed.

But I hope I'm wrong about all of this.....

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  • Crawford changed the title to #1 GUNTER vs #3 TIDEHAVEN- 3A Div. II UIL State Championship Game
15 hours ago, OLEMAN said:

I think Canadian was not as tough as the media portrayed.  Very good team fo sure but not as good as years past. 

In Canadians defense, Cavalier was sick, and RB1 was out. Had to move best wide receiver to running back.

That said, we still would not have won. I think it ends up being a 14 point Gunter win. Our line was flat out bullied last night, the likes of which I have never seen. 

This is the best Gunter team I have seen. They have diversified the offense and put the entire defense in conflict. 

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Overall (all games played), Gunter comes in averaging 58.2 per game against teams that allow 29.3 per game on average (28.9 more).  They hold teams that average 36.6 ppg to 7.5 per game (29.2 fewer) for an overall swing of +58.1.

Tidehaven is scoring 43.4 per game vs defenses that allow 21.3 on average (22.1 more) and they hold teams averaging 28 per game to 5.9 (22 fewer) for an overall swing of +44.1.

Based on all games played, I get a 36-22 Gunter win.

Taking Gunter's 3 best "swing" games, where their opponents win on average 37-29 - Gunter won those games against those opponents by an average score of 74-4.  Gunter's swing in these 3 games is a +81.4.

In Tidehaven's three best swing games, their opponents win on average 30-14, Tidehaven beat these opponents by an average score of 49-2 for a swing of +62.4.

Based on these three games by each opponent, I get a Gunter win, 48-27.

Now, taking each team's WORST three swing games, Gunter's three opponents lose on average 29-39.  Gunter won those games by an average score of 54-10 for a swing of +33.3

In Tidehaven's worst three swing games, their opponents lose on average 26-27.  Tidehaven won those games by an average score of 31-7 for a swing of +23.3.

Now, taking the same sets of best and worst three swing games (sorry for how convoluted this can be).  If I take Tidehaven's best three and put them against Gunter's worst three (in other words, Tidehaven's best 3 performances vs Gunter's worst 3), I get a Tidehaven win, 38-22.  If I put Gunter's best three against Tidehaven's worst 3, I get a Gunter win, 56-4.  I consider this the "range of possibilities" considering all games played.

Considering only district and playoff games by each team, I get a 46-17 Gunter win. 

Considering only playoff games, I get 45-25 Gunter.

Everything below is from a PPG standpoint.

In 3AD2 :

Gunter has the #1 offense, Tidehaven #8.

Tidehaven has the #1 defense, Gunter #2.

Gunter has the #1 average margin of victory, Tidehaven #3.

In all of 11-man football (2A-6A) :

Gunter has the #1 offense, Tidehaven #78. 

Tidehaven has the #3 defense, Gunter #4.

Gunter has the #1 average margin of victory, Tidehaven #13.

I'm gonna go with a 42-21 Gunter win in this one.  

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2 hours ago, THEHARDWAY said:

In Canadians defense, Cavalier was sick, and RB1 was out. Had to move best wide receiver to running back.

That said, we still would not have won. I think it ends up being a 14 point Gunter win. Our line was flat out bullied last night, the likes of which I have never seen. 

This is the best Gunter team I have seen. They have diversified the offense and put the entire defense in conflict. 

very classy

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23 minutes ago, blueflu said:

very classy

It’s the honest truth, at least in my opinion. We could have been fully healthy, and I think we lose that game 10 out of 10 times. Our line could not handle y’all’s defensive front. Our center was nervous (something) and had high snaps all night. It was hard to watch!

Pulling for y’all to win state!
 


 

 

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6 hours ago, THEHARDWAY said:

It’s the honest truth, at least in my opinion. We could have been fully healthy, and I think we lose that game 10 out of 10 times. Our line could not handle y’all’s defensive front. Our center was nervous (something) and had high snaps all night. It was hard to watch!

Pulling for y’all to win state!
 


 

 

I dont remember the kid's name, but #35 for Canadian was a dangerous option for the QB.  Looked like a dump-off option in the passing game, and it was a successful option early on.  Gunter did a good job taking that away later in the game I think.  Canadian's QB - injuries or not - was very good.  Gunter did have the Canadian QB #4 (is he a Cavalier?) on the run quite a bit which had an impact.  He threw a pretty ball, and frustrated the defense (by defense, I mean me).  Great player, and if he wasn't 100%, I think it played a part.  Perhaps not in the outcome, but man is he good.  I have read where Gunter held him 46 passing yards shy of becoming the 4th player in TX HS football history to reach 4,000+ passing and 1,000+ rushing in a season.  A group that consists of Kyler Murray.  46 yards shy of joining that elite group.  He was short on passing yards.  I think he already had 1,500+ rushing yards coming into the game; he just lacked thr passing yards to join that elite group coming into the game.  Though I do think his 86th pass broke the TX HS football record for TDs in a season.  Great player.  One I was worried about going into the game.

On the flip side, I believe Gunter had 4 or 5 key injuries as well - a lot of those in the secondary.  I only say this to point out that pretty much every team has injuries by game #14.  You play who you play.  I think it was Gunter's D line that relieved the Gunter secondary.

I remember early in the game thinking, "really?  That guy was open?" After about 3 or 4 pretty darts up the middle, and I'm like, damn.  This might be a long game.

He was shifty back there too.  In every other game, that was 6-8 sacks.  Canadian's QB was very very (not enough very's) at avoiding the hit/sack, and for the most part, it was a gasp in the Gunter crowd when we had him and missed.  And sure enough, he more often than not hit a wide open man (with a pretty dart) Anyway - great QB.  I don't know if it was scheme-related or secondary-related, but he had guys to throw to.  That seemed to be shut down in the second half, so probably scheme related.

If he was injured, it didn't show from where I was sitting.  I know you're not using that as an excuse; I'm just saying - damn good QB.  Period.  Gunter did a good job of reeling that in a bit.

As I said before, #35 was always a target that made me nervous.  If I didn't know how football works, I would have assumed he snuck on the field off the sidelines after the ball was snapped.  I don't know his stats while I'm making this comment, but I assume he had some great yards after catch stats throughout the season.  Great option for a QB in trouble.

Anyway.  I'm still talking about it because of the respect I have for the Canadian football program.  Great program - and honestly for me - the classiest bunch of kids we play all year - every year.  I know most people miss this kind of thing, but after the game, the Gunter players lined up to stand at attention to Canadian's school song.  We learned that from Canadian - when they did it for us back in 2016 when the whole team lined up and faced our crowd while we played our school song. Absolute class.  Looks like Gunter learned that display of class from Canadian.  

Another one in the books.  And from the VERY recent release from the UIL regarding cutoffs for classifications, it looks like we have two more years in the same class.  Let's get two more state semifinal games out of it. 

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20 hours ago, Pax said:

Overall (all games played), Gunter comes in averaging 58.2 per game against teams that allow 29.3 per game on average (28.9 more).  They hold teams that average 36.6 ppg to 7.5 per game (29.2 fewer) for an overall swing of +58.1.

Tidehaven is scoring 43.4 per game vs defenses that allow 21.3 on average (22.1 more) and they hold teams averaging 28 per game to 5.9 (22 fewer) for an overall swing of +44.1.

Based on all games played, I get a 36-22 Gunter win.

Taking Gunter's 3 best "swing" games, where their opponents win on average 37-29 - Gunter won those games against those opponents by an average score of 74-4.  Gunter's swing in these 3 games is a +81.4.

In Tidehaven's three best swing games, their opponents win on average 30-14, Tidehaven beat these opponents by an average score of 49-2 for a swing of +62.4.

Based on these three games by each opponent, I get a Gunter win, 48-27.

Now, taking each team's WORST three swing games, Gunter's three opponents lose on average 29-39.  Gunter won those games by an average score of 54-10 for a swing of +33.3

In Tidehaven's worst three swing games, their opponents lose on average 26-27.  Tidehaven won those games by an average score of 31-7 for a swing of +23.3.

Now, taking the same sets of best and worst three swing games (sorry for how convoluted this can be).  If I take Tidehaven's best three and put them against Gunter's worst three (in other words, Tidehaven's best 3 performances vs Gunter's worst 3), I get a Tidehaven win, 38-22.  If I put Gunter's best three against Tidehaven's worst 3, I get a Gunter win, 56-4.  I consider this the "range of possibilities" considering all games played.

Considering only district and playoff games by each team, I get a 46-17 Gunter win. 

Considering only playoff games, I get 45-25 Gunter.

Everything below is from a PPG standpoint.

In 3AD2 :

Gunter has the #1 offense, Tidehaven #8.

Tidehaven has the #1 defense, Gunter #2.

Gunter has the #1 average margin of victory, Tidehaven #3.

In all of 11-man football (2A-6A) :

Gunter has the #1 offense, Tidehaven #78. 

Tidehaven has the #3 defense, Gunter #4.

Gunter has the #1 average margin of victory, Tidehaven #13.

I'm gonna go with a 42-21 Gunter win in this one.  

 

12 hours ago, Pax said:

I dont remember the kid's name, but #35 for Canadian was a dangerous option for the QB.  Looked like a dump-off option in the passing game, and it was a successful option early on.  Gunter did a good job taking that away later in the game I think.  Canadian's QB - injuries or not - was very good.  Gunter did have the Canadian QB #4 (is he a Cavalier?) on the run quite a bit which had an impact.  He threw a pretty ball, and frustrated the defense (by defense, I mean me).  Great player, and if he wasn't 100%, I think it played a part.  Perhaps not in the outcome, but man is he good.  I have read where Gunter held him 46 passing yards shy of becoming the 4th player in TX HS football history to reach 4,000+ passing and 1,000+ rushing in a season.  A group that consists of Kyler Murray.  46 yards shy of joining that elite group.  He was short on passing yards.  I think he already had 1,500+ rushing yards coming into the game; he just lacked thr passing yards to join that elite group coming into the game.  Though I do think his 86th pass broke the TX HS football record for TDs in a season.  Great player.  One I was worried about going into the game.

On the flip side, I believe Gunter had 4 or 5 key injuries as well - a lot of those in the secondary.  I only say this to point out that pretty much every team has injuries by game #14.  You play who you play.  I think it was Gunter's D line that relieved the Gunter secondary.

I remember early in the game thinking, "really?  That guy was open?" After about 3 or 4 pretty darts up the middle, and I'm like, damn.  This might be a long game.

He was shifty back there too.  In every other game, that was 6-8 sacks.  Canadian's QB was very very (not enough very's) at avoiding the hit/sack, and for the most part, it was a gasp in the Gunter crowd when we had him and missed.  And sure enough, he more often than not hit a wide open man (with a pretty dart) Anyway - great QB.  I don't know if it was scheme-related or secondary-related, but he had guys to throw to.  That seemed to be shut down in the second half, so probably scheme related.

If he was injured, it didn't show from where I was sitting.  I know you're not using that as an excuse; I'm just saying - damn good QB.  Period.  Gunter did a good job of reeling that in a bit.

As I said before, #35 was always a target that made me nervous.  If I didn't know how football works, I would have assumed he snuck on the field off the sidelines after the ball was snapped.  I don't know his stats while I'm making this comment, but I assume he had some great yards after catch stats throughout the season.  Great option for a QB in trouble.

Anyway.  I'm still talking about it because of the respect I have for the Canadian football program.  Great program - and honestly for me - the classiest bunch of kids we play all year - every year.  I know most people miss this kind of thing, but after the game, the Gunter players lined up to stand at attention to Canadian's school song.  We learned that from Canadian - when they did it for us back in 2016 when the whole team lined up and faced our crowd while we played our school song. Absolute class.  Looks like Gunter learned that display of class from Canadian.  

Another one in the books.  And from the VERY recent release from the UIL regarding cutoffs for classifications, it looks like we have two more years in the same class.  Let's get two more state semifinal games out of it. 

Dude, you're killing me with these long post. Anyways, continue........😂

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12 hours ago, Crawford said:

 

 

Dude, you're killing me with these long post. Anyways, continue........😂

In knew I was going long on it!  Trust me!  That was not at all lost on me.  I realized how long it was gonna be about halfway through, and figured I might as well....

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9 hours ago, Pax said:

I dont remember the kid's name, but #35 for Canadian was a dangerous option for the QB.  Looked like a dump-off option in the passing game, and it was a successful option early on.  Gunter did a good job taking that away later in the game I think.  Canadian's QB - injuries or not - was very good.  Gunter did have the Canadian QB #4 (is he a Cavalier?) on the run quite a bit which had an impact.  He threw a pretty ball, and frustrated the defense (by defense, I mean me).  Great player, and if he wasn't 100%, I think it played a part.  Perhaps not in the outcome, but man is he good.  I have read where Gunter held him 46 passing yards shy of becoming the 4th player in TX HS football history to reach 4,000+ passing and 1,000+ rushing in a season.  A group that consists of Kyler Murray.  46 yards shy of joining that elite group.  He was short on passing yards.  I think he already had 1,500+ rushing yards coming into the game; he just lacked thr passing yards to join that elite group coming into the game.  Though I do think his 86th pass broke the TX HS football record for TDs in a season.  Great player.  One I was worried about going into the game.

On the flip side, I believe Gunter had 4 or 5 key injuries as well - a lot of those in the secondary.  I only say this to point out that pretty much every team has injuries by game #14.  You play who you play.  I think it was Gunter's D line that relieved the Gunter secondary.

I remember early in the game thinking, "really?  That guy was open?" After about 3 or 4 pretty darts up the middle, and I'm like, damn.  This might be a long game.

He was shifty back there too.  In every other game, that was 6-8 sacks.  Canadian's QB was very very (not enough very's) at avoiding the hit/sack, and for the most part, it was a gasp in the Gunter crowd when we had him and missed.  And sure enough, he more often than not hit a wide open man (with a pretty dart) Anyway - great QB.  I don't know if it was scheme-related or secondary-related, but he had guys to throw to.  That seemed to be shut down in the second half, so probably scheme related.

If he was injured, it didn't show from where I was sitting.  I know you're not using that as an excuse; I'm just saying - damn good QB.  Period.  Gunter did a good job of reeling that in a bit.

As I said before, #35 was always a target that made me nervous.  If I didn't know how football works, I would have assumed he snuck on the field off the sidelines after the ball was snapped.  I don't know his stats while I'm making this comment, but I assume he had some great yards after catch stats throughout the season.  Great option for a QB in trouble.

Anyway.  I'm still talking about it because of the respect I have for the Canadian football program.  Great program - and honestly for me - the classiest bunch of kids we play all year - every year.  I know most people miss this kind of thing, but after the game, the Gunter players lined up to stand at attention to Canadian's school song.  We learned that from Canadian - when they did it for us back in 2016 when the whole team lined up and faced our crowd while we played our school song. Absolute class.  Looks like Gunter learned that display of class from Canadian.  

Another one in the books.  And from the VERY recent release from the UIL regarding cutoffs for classifications, it looks like we have two more years in the same class.  Let's get two more state semifinal games out of it. 

35 (Flowers) is a stud. We’ve been able to line him and Neumeier (11) up on the same side of the field all year and create mismatches.

I feel bad for Cavalier. He did not look like himself this game. A large part was do to the Gunter defense. However, he was under throwing almost every ball. He was not injured, but was sick. That’s the only thing I can contribute it too (on the plays he wasn’t running for his life!).

We will be good next year, but I believe it will be a down year as well (as compared to what we are used to). The line will be more experienced, but having to replace 4,35, and 11 will be tough.

I love the fact that y’all stand for the songs now. Our coaches have always had our kids do it win or lose. I think it’s a great way to show respect to the other team!

always enjoy the conversations with you!

Edited by THEHARDWAY
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