Bill Connelly's 2024 SP+ Projections

Mr. P · August 14, 2024

Mr. P · August 14, 2024

Here are the full rankings:

Quote

Team SP+ Off. SP+ Def. SP+ ST SP+

1. Georgia 34.2 46.2 (3) 12.0 (5) 0.7 (4)

2. Ohio St. 30.8 35.7 (25) 4.9 (2) 0.5 (20)

3. Oregon 29.0 47.1 (1) 18.1 (15) -0.2 (85)

4. Alabama 27.8 42.7 (7) 14.9 (8) 0.7 (2)

5. Texas 27.7 44.4 (4) 16.8 (12) 0.5 (17)

6. Penn St. 26.1 35.8 (24) 9.7 (4) 0.4 (28)

7. Michigan 25.0 31.9 (41) 6.9 (3) 0.6 (7)

8. Ole Miss 24.7 42.9 (6) 18.3 (16) 0.5 (26)

9. Notre Dame 23.4 39.0 (10) 15.6 (9) 0.2 (53)

10. LSU 23.1 46.3 (2) 23.2 (38) -0.1 (83)

11. Missouri 22.2 40.7 (8) 18.5 (19) 0.3 (45)

12. Florida St. 19.9 36.2 (21) 16.2 (10) 0.6 (8)

13. Oklahoma 19.8 37.1 (17) 17.3 (13) -0.3 (95)

14. Texas A&M 19.2 38.2 (11) 19.0 (24) 0.0 (73)

15. Tennessee 19.2 37.7 (14) 18.6 (20) 0.2 (52)

16. Clemson 18.8 36.5 (19) 17.7 (14) 0.1 (66)

17. Kansas St. 16.4 36.3 (20) 19.9 (28) -0.3 (91)

18. Utah 15.8 32.5 (37) 16.7 (11) 0.4 (34)

19. Miami 15.5 37.3 (16) 21.9 (34) 0.7 (3)

20. Oklahoma St. 14.0 37.9 (12) 23.9 (42) 0.3 (42)

21. USC 13.9 44.4 (5) 30.5 (83) -0.4 (100)

22. Kentucky 13.8 34.4 (28) 20.6 (31) 0.4 (39)

23. Florida 13.2 36.9 (18) 23.7 (41) 0.6 (9)

24. Iowa 13.2 17.9 (114) 4.7 (1) 0.4 (30)

25. Auburn 13.1 32.3 (38) 19.2 (25) 0.5 (27)

26. Wisconsin 12.9 25.1 (77) 12.2 (7) 0.4 (29)

27. SMU 12.7 35.9 (22) 23.3 (39) -0.4 (99)

28. Arizona 12.4 37.9 (13) 25.6 (50) 0.0 (79)

29. NC St. 12.1 30.5 (53) 18.4 (18) 0.6 (15)

30. Iowa St. 11.5 29.8 (61) 18.3 (17) 0.4 (37)

31. Louisville 11.3 30.7 (49) 19.4 (27) 0.1 (64)

32. Washington 10.3 34.8 (26) 24.5 (44) 0.3 (47)

33. Kansas 9.7 37.7 (15) 28.0 (67) 0.1 (60)

34. W. Virginia 9.7 35.8 (23) 26.1 (54) 0.2 (54)

35. S. Carolina 9.5 30.0 (59) 20.5 (30) 0.6 (12)

36. Va. Tech 9.4 31.3 (43) 21.9 (35) 0.6 (14)

37. UCLA 8.8 30.3 (54) 21.5 (33) -0.5 (109)

38. TCU 8.7 33.3 (30) 24.6 (46) -0.1 (81)

39. Boise St. 7.9 32.6 (36) 24.8 (47) 0.5 (23)

40. N. Carolina 7.9 34.1 (29) 26.3 (55) 0.3 (46)

41. Texas Tech 7.4 31.9 (40) 24.5 (45) 0.4 (31)

42. Nebraska 7.4 19.4 (106) 12.0 (6) -0.5 (106)

43. Memphis 6.1 39.9 (9) 33.8 (103) 0.1 (62)

44. Arkansas 6.1 32.1 (39) 26.1 (53) 0.6 (6)

45. UCF 5.9 31.2 (44) 25.4 (49) -0.6 (114)

46. Maryland 5.2 24.2 (82) 19.0 (23) 0.1 (59)

47. Minnesota 4.2 23.2 (89) 19.0 (22) 0.5 (19)

48. Liberty 3.9 34.5 (27) 30.6 (85) -0.6 (124)

49. Rutgers 3.5 22.3 (92) 18.8 (21) 0.4 (33)

50. Oregon St. 3.2 30.5 (51) 27.3 (62) 0.6 (10)

51. Duke 3.1 25.7 (74) 22.7 (36) 0.5 (18)

52. California 2.8 33.0 (31) 30.3 (82) -0.7 (129)

53. Baylor 2.2 30.0 (58) 27.8 (64) -0.1 (80)

54. UTSA 1.2 31.0 (45) 29.7 (80) 0.5 (24)

55. Miss. St. 1.1 26.9 (67) 25.7 (52) 0.3 (50)

56. JMU 0.7 30.1 (57) 29.4 (77) 0.4 (40)

57. Wash. St. 0.6 30.5 (50) 29.9 (81) 0.5 (25)

58. Ga. Tech 0.6 33.0 (33) 32.4 (94) 0.1 (68)

59. App. St. 0.5 33.0 (34) 32.5 (95) 0.3 (43)

60. Colorado 0.3 33.0 (32) 32.7 (100) 0.0 (74)

61. Illinois 0.1 23.5 (87) 23.4 (40) 0.0 (77)

62. Cincinnati -0.1 27.8 (64) 27.8 (65) 0.1 (65)

63. Fresno St. -0.1 30.9 (46) 31.0 (88) 0.5 (22)

64. Troy -0.7 25.0 (78) 25.7 (51) -0.3 (90)

65. Tulane -0.8 25.6 (75) 26.3 (56) 0.3 (48)

66. Pittsburgh -0.8 23.6 (86) 24.4 (43) -0.2 (88)

67. Syracuse -1.0 25.8 (73) 26.7 (60) -0.2 (86)

68. Purdue -1.4 26.3 (70) 27.7 (63) -0.7 (128)

69. BYU -1.5 29.2 (63) 30.6 (86) 0.6 (11)

70. WKU -1.6 29.9 (60) 31.4 (91) -0.2 (89)

71. Michigan St. -2.4 16.8 (121) 19.2 (26) 0.6 (16)

72. Louisiana -2.4 32.8 (35) 35.1 (116) 0.4 (38)

73. Boston Coll. -2.4 26.0 (72) 28.4 (69) -0.2 (84)

74. Wake Forest -2.6 23.9 (85) 26.5 (59) -0.4 (103)

75. Northwestern -2.8 17.3 (117) 20.1 (29) -0.4 (105)

76. Houston -3.3 29.3 (62) 32.6 (97) -0.4 (102)

77. Stanford -3.5 27.1 (66) 30.6 (84) 0.4 (36)

78. Virginia -3.5 26.1 (71) 29.7 (79) 0.0 (71)

79. Arizona St. -4.0 24.7 (80) 28.7 (72) -0.5 (112)

80. Miami-OH -4.0 17.1 (118) 21.1 (32) 0.7 (1)

81. Indiana -4.5 22.4 (91) 26.8 (61) 0.1 (63)

82. UNLV -5.2 30.8 (48) 36.0 (119) 0.7 (5)

83. USF -5.6 30.3 (55) 35.9 (118) -0.1 (82)

84. S. Alabama -6.4 24.9 (79) 31.3 (89) 0.2 (57)

85. Coastal Caro. -6.5 24.3 (81) 30.8 (87) -0.5 (113)

86. Texas St. -6.5 30.3 (56) 36.8 (123) 0.3 (44)

87. Toledo -7.0 18.2 (113) 25.2 (48) 0.0 (78)

88. Air Force -7.1 19.3 (107) 26.4 (57) 0.4 (35)

89. Vanderbilt -7.3 26.6 (68) 33.9 (104) 0.0 (72)

90. Wyoming -8.0 20.3 (101) 28.3 (68) -0.3 (96)

91. SDSU -8.9 20.7 (99) 29.6 (78) 0.2 (56)

92. Rice -9.0 25.2 (76) 34.2 (111) -0.6 (119)

93. Arkansas St. -9.1 27.4 (65) 36.5 (122) 0.3 (49)

94. ECU -9.5 18.4 (110) 27.9 (66) 0.0 (76)

95. Marshall -9.9 24.0 (83) 33.9 (105) -0.6 (120)

96. J'ville St. -9.9 21.8 (94) 31.7 (92) -0.2 (87)

97. Ga. Southern -10.3 26.5 (69) 36.8 (124) 0.2 (55)

98. NIU -10.6 15.8 (123) 26.4 (58) -0.6 (116)

99. UAB -10.6 31.5 (42) 42.1 (134) -0.7 (134)

100. Colorado St. -10.6 23.5 (88) 34.1 (108) 0.4 (32)

101. SJSU -11.0 21.6 (96) 32.7 (98) -0.7 (130)

102. Utah St. -11.1 30.5 (52) 41.6 (132) -0.3 (92)

103. Army -11.1 17.8 (116) 28.9 (73) 0.0 (69)

104. BGSU -11.2 21.3 (98) 32.5 (96) -0.6 (122)

105. N. Texas -11.3 30.8 (47) 42.1 (133) 0.6 (13)

106. Georgia St. -11.3 22.8 (90) 34.1 (109) -0.6 (117)

107. Ohio -12.0 11.2 (133) 23.2 (37) -0.7 (132)

108. FAU -12.2 16.5 (122) 28.7 (71) -0.4 (104)

109. Hawaii -12.6 21.7 (95) 34.3 (112) 0.0 (75)

110. WMU -12.9 20.3 (103) 33.1 (102) -0.6 (125)

111. ODU -13.1 22.0 (93) 35.1 (115) -0.6 (126)

112. Tulsa -13.2 23.9 (84) 37.1 (125) 0.1 (67)

113. Navy -13.3 15.3 (124) 28.6 (70) -0.5 (108)

114. MTSU -13.4 20.6 (100) 34.0 (107) -0.3 (93)

115. Sam Houston -14.2 18.4 (111) 32.7 (99) -0.3 (97)

116. NMSU -15.5 19.5 (104) 35.0 (113) 0.2 (51)

117. CMU -15.9 18.3 (112) 34.2 (110) -0.6 (127)

118. EMU -15.9 13.1 (130) 29.0 (75) 0.5 (21)

119. So. Miss -16.1 20.3 (102) 36.4 (121) -0.5 (107)

120. La. Tech -16.7 21.5 (97) 38.2 (129) 0.4 (41)

121. Nevada -16.7 19.4 (105) 36.1 (120) 0.2 (58)

122. Ball St. -16.9 14.4 (126) 31.3 (90) -0.4 (98)

123. Buffalo -17.0 12.1 (132) 29.0 (74) -0.3 (94)

124. UTEP -17.8 15.1 (125) 32.9 (101) -0.4 (101)

125. UConn -17.9 14.1 (129) 32.0 (93) -0.5 (111)

126. Charlotte -18.1 17.1 (119) 35.2 (117) -0.6 (118)

127. FIU -19.0 18.7 (109) 37.7 (128) -0.5 (110)

128. UMass -20.1 19.0 (108) 39.1 (130) -0.7 (133)

129. New Mexico -20.6 17.0 (120) 37.6 (126) -0.6 (121)

130. Kent St. -20.9 14.2 (128) 35.1 (114) 0.1 (61)

131. Kennesaw St. -20.9 13.1 (131) 34.0 (106) 0.0 (70)

132. Temple -21.9 17.8 (115) 39.7 (131) -0.6 (123)

133. Akron -22.2 6.9 (134) 29.1 (76) -0.7 (131)

134. UL-Monroe -23.4 14.3 (127) 37.7 (127) -0.6 (115)

Coach Rab · August 18, 2024

B12 doesn’t hit the market until #17. I find that hard to believe because I think someone from the b12 will go undefeated

Lion7000 · August 18, 2024

The thing about the Big 12 is that Six maybe seven are capable of winning the conference and I believe the champ is in the playoffs.

In no particular order

Kstate

Utah

Arizona

Okie st

Kansas

Texas Tech

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Team	SP+	Off. SP+	Def. SP+	ST SP+
1. Georgia	34.2	46.2 (3)	12.0 (5)	0.7 (4)
2. Ohio St.	30.8	35.7 (25)	4.9 (2)	0.5 (20)
3. Oregon	29.0	47.1 (1)	18.1 (15)	-0.2 (85)
4. Alabama	27.8	42.7 (7)	14.9 (8)	0.7 (2)
5. Texas	27.7	44.4 (4)	16.8 (12)	0.5 (17)
6. Penn St.	26.1	35.8 (24)	9.7 (4)	0.4 (28)
7. Michigan	25.0	31.9 (41)	6.9 (3)	0.6 (7)
8. Ole Miss	24.7	42.9 (6)	18.3 (16)	0.5 (26)
9. Notre Dame	23.4	39.0 (10)	15.6 (9)	0.2 (53)
10. LSU	23.1	46.3 (2)	23.2 (38)	-0.1 (83)
11. Missouri	22.2	40.7 (8)	18.5 (19)	0.3 (45)
12. Florida St.	19.9	36.2 (21)	16.2 (10)	0.6 (8)
13. Oklahoma	19.8	37.1 (17)	17.3 (13)	-0.3 (95)
14. Texas A&M	19.2	38.2 (11)	19.0 (24)	0.0 (73)
15. Tennessee	19.2	37.7 (14)	18.6 (20)	0.2 (52)
16. Clemson	18.8	36.5 (19)	17.7 (14)	0.1 (66)
17. Kansas St.	16.4	36.3 (20)	19.9 (28)	-0.3 (91)
18. Utah	15.8	32.5 (37)	16.7 (11)	0.4 (34)
19. Miami	15.5	37.3 (16)	21.9 (34)	0.7 (3)
20. Oklahoma St.	14.0	37.9 (12)	23.9 (42)	0.3 (42)
21. USC	13.9	44.4 (5)	30.5 (83)	-0.4 (100)
22. Kentucky	13.8	34.4 (28)	20.6 (31)	0.4 (39)
23. Florida	13.2	36.9 (18)	23.7 (41)	0.6 (9)
24. Iowa	13.2	17.9 (114)	4.7 (1)	0.4 (30)
25. Auburn	13.1	32.3 (38)	19.2 (25)	0.5 (27)
26. Wisconsin	12.9	25.1 (77)	12.2 (7)	0.4 (29)
27. SMU	12.7	35.9 (22)	23.3 (39)	-0.4 (99)
28. Arizona	12.4	37.9 (13)	25.6 (50)	0.0 (79)
29. NC St.	12.1	30.5 (53)	18.4 (18)	0.6 (15)
30. Iowa St.	11.5	29.8 (61)	18.3 (17)	0.4 (37)
31. Louisville	11.3	30.7 (49)	19.4 (27)	0.1 (64)
32. Washington	10.3	34.8 (26)	24.5 (44)	0.3 (47)
33. Kansas	9.7	37.7 (15)	28.0 (67)	0.1 (60)
34. W. Virginia	9.7	35.8 (23)	26.1 (54)	0.2 (54)
35. S. Carolina	9.5	30.0 (59)	20.5 (30)	0.6 (12)
36. Va. Tech	9.4	31.3 (43)	21.9 (35)	0.6 (14)
37. UCLA	8.8	30.3 (54)	21.5 (33)	-0.5 (109)
38. TCU	8.7	33.3 (30)	24.6 (46)	-0.1 (81)
39. Boise St.	7.9	32.6 (36)	24.8 (47)	0.5 (23)
40. N. Carolina	7.9	34.1 (29)	26.3 (55)	0.3 (46)
41. Texas Tech	7.4	31.9 (40)	24.5 (45)	0.4 (31)
42. Nebraska	7.4	19.4 (106)	12.0 (6)	-0.5 (106)
43. Memphis	6.1	39.9 (9)	33.8 (103)	0.1 (62)
44. Arkansas	6.1	32.1 (39)	26.1 (53)	0.6 (6)
45. UCF	5.9	31.2 (44)	25.4 (49)	-0.6 (114)
46. Maryland	5.2	24.2 (82)	19.0 (23)	0.1 (59)
47. Minnesota	4.2	23.2 (89)	19.0 (22)	0.5 (19)
48. Liberty	3.9	34.5 (27)	30.6 (85)	-0.6 (124)
49. Rutgers	3.5	22.3 (92)	18.8 (21)	0.4 (33)
50. Oregon St.	3.2	30.5 (51)	27.3 (62)	0.6 (10)
51. Duke	3.1	25.7 (74)	22.7 (36)	0.5 (18)
52. California	2.8	33.0 (31)	30.3 (82)	-0.7 (129)
53. Baylor	2.2	30.0 (58)	27.8 (64)	-0.1 (80)
54. UTSA	1.2	31.0 (45)	29.7 (80)	0.5 (24)
55. Miss. St.	1.1	26.9 (67)	25.7 (52)	0.3 (50)
56. JMU	0.7	30.1 (57)	29.4 (77)	0.4 (40)
57. Wash. St.	0.6	30.5 (50)	29.9 (81)	0.5 (25)
58. Ga. Tech	0.6	33.0 (33)	32.4 (94)	0.1 (68)
59. App. St.	0.5	33.0 (34)	32.5 (95)	0.3 (43)
60. Colorado	0.3	33.0 (32)	32.7 (100)	0.0 (74)
61. Illinois	0.1	23.5 (87)	23.4 (40)	0.0 (77)
62. Cincinnati	-0.1	27.8 (64)	27.8 (65)	0.1 (65)
63. Fresno St.	-0.1	30.9 (46)	31.0 (88)	0.5 (22)
64. Troy	-0.7	25.0 (78)	25.7 (51)	-0.3 (90)
65. Tulane	-0.8	25.6 (75)	26.3 (56)	0.3 (48)
66. Pittsburgh	-0.8	23.6 (86)	24.4 (43)	-0.2 (88)
67. Syracuse	-1.0	25.8 (73)	26.7 (60)	-0.2 (86)
68. Purdue	-1.4	26.3 (70)	27.7 (63)	-0.7 (128)
69. BYU	-1.5	29.2 (63)	30.6 (86)	0.6 (11)
70. WKU	-1.6	29.9 (60)	31.4 (91)	-0.2 (89)
71. Michigan St.	-2.4	16.8 (121)	19.2 (26)	0.6 (16)
72. Louisiana	-2.4	32.8 (35)	35.1 (116)	0.4 (38)
73. Boston Coll.	-2.4	26.0 (72)	28.4 (69)	-0.2 (84)
74. Wake Forest	-2.6	23.9 (85)	26.5 (59)	-0.4 (103)
75. Northwestern	-2.8	17.3 (117)	20.1 (29)	-0.4 (105)
76. Houston	-3.3	29.3 (62)	32.6 (97)	-0.4 (102)
77. Stanford	-3.5	27.1 (66)	30.6 (84)	0.4 (36)
78. Virginia	-3.5	26.1 (71)	29.7 (79)	0.0 (71)
79. Arizona St.	-4.0	24.7 (80)	28.7 (72)	-0.5 (112)
80. Miami-OH	-4.0	17.1 (118)	21.1 (32)	0.7 (1)
81. Indiana	-4.5	22.4 (91)	26.8 (61)	0.1 (63)
82. UNLV	-5.2	30.8 (48)	36.0 (119)	0.7 (5)
83. USF	-5.6	30.3 (55)	35.9 (118)	-0.1 (82)
84. S. Alabama	-6.4	24.9 (79)	31.3 (89)	0.2 (57)
85. Coastal Caro.	-6.5	24.3 (81)	30.8 (87)	-0.5 (113)
86. Texas St.	-6.5	30.3 (56)	36.8 (123)	0.3 (44)
87. Toledo	-7.0	18.2 (113)	25.2 (48)	0.0 (78)
88. Air Force	-7.1	19.3 (107)	26.4 (57)	0.4 (35)
89. Vanderbilt	-7.3	26.6 (68)	33.9 (104)	0.0 (72)
90. Wyoming	-8.0	20.3 (101)	28.3 (68)	-0.3 (96)
91. SDSU	-8.9	20.7 (99)	29.6 (78)	0.2 (56)
92. Rice	-9.0	25.2 (76)	34.2 (111)	-0.6 (119)
93. Arkansas St.	-9.1	27.4 (65)	36.5 (122)	0.3 (49)
94. ECU	-9.5	18.4 (110)	27.9 (66)	0.0 (76)
95. Marshall	-9.9	24.0 (83)	33.9 (105)	-0.6 (120)
96. J'ville St.	-9.9	21.8 (94)	31.7 (92)	-0.2 (87)
97. Ga. Southern	-10.3	26.5 (69)	36.8 (124)	0.2 (55)
98. NIU	-10.6	15.8 (123)	26.4 (58)	-0.6 (116)
99. UAB	-10.6	31.5 (42)	42.1 (134)	-0.7 (134)
100. Colorado St.	-10.6	23.5 (88)	34.1 (108)	0.4 (32)
101. SJSU	-11.0	21.6 (96)	32.7 (98)	-0.7 (130)
102. Utah St.	-11.1	30.5 (52)	41.6 (132)	-0.3 (92)
103. Army	-11.1	17.8 (116)	28.9 (73)	0.0 (69)
104. BGSU	-11.2	21.3 (98)	32.5 (96)	-0.6 (122)
105. N. Texas	-11.3	30.8 (47)	42.1 (133)	0.6 (13)
106. Georgia St.	-11.3	22.8 (90)	34.1 (109)	-0.6 (117)
107. Ohio	-12.0	11.2 (133)	23.2 (37)	-0.7 (132)
108. FAU	-12.2	16.5 (122)	28.7 (71)	-0.4 (104)
109. Hawaii	-12.6	21.7 (95)	34.3 (112)	0.0 (75)
110. WMU	-12.9	20.3 (103)	33.1 (102)	-0.6 (125)
111. ODU	-13.1	22.0 (93)	35.1 (115)	-0.6 (126)
112. Tulsa	-13.2	23.9 (84)	37.1 (125)	0.1 (67)
113. Navy	-13.3	15.3 (124)	28.6 (70)	-0.5 (108)
114. MTSU	-13.4	20.6 (100)	34.0 (107)	-0.3 (93)
115. Sam Houston	-14.2	18.4 (111)	32.7 (99)	-0.3 (97)
116. NMSU	-15.5	19.5 (104)	35.0 (113)	0.2 (51)
117. CMU	-15.9	18.3 (112)	34.2 (110)	-0.6 (127)
118. EMU	-15.9	13.1 (130)	29.0 (75)	0.5 (21)
119. So. Miss	-16.1	20.3 (102)	36.4 (121)	-0.5 (107)
120. La. Tech	-16.7	21.5 (97)	38.2 (129)	0.4 (41)
121. Nevada	-16.7	19.4 (105)	36.1 (120)	0.2 (58)
122. Ball St.	-16.9	14.4 (126)	31.3 (90)	-0.4 (98)
123. Buffalo	-17.0	12.1 (132)	29.0 (74)	-0.3 (94)
124. UTEP	-17.8	15.1 (125)	32.9 (101)	-0.4 (101)
125. UConn	-17.9	14.1 (129)	32.0 (93)	-0.5 (111)
126. Charlotte	-18.1	17.1 (119)	35.2 (117)	-0.6 (118)
127. FIU	-19.0	18.7 (109)	37.7 (128)	-0.5 (110)
128. UMass	-20.1	19.0 (108)	39.1 (130)	-0.7 (133)
129. New Mexico	-20.6	17.0 (120)	37.6 (126)	-0.6 (121)
130. Kent St.	-20.9	14.2 (128)	35.1 (114)	0.1 (61)
131. Kennesaw St.	-20.9	13.1 (131)	34.0 (106)	0.0 (70)
132. Temple	-21.9	17.8 (115)	39.7 (131)	-0.6 (123)
133. Akron	-22.2	6.9 (134)	29.1 (76)	-0.7 (131)
134. UL-Monroe	-23.4	14.3 (127)	37.7 (127)	-0.6 (115)