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4A-D1 legitimate state contenders


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On 11/2/2024 at 11:41 AM, GoodOleBoy73 said:

Celina

Stephenville

Kilgore

LBJ

Agree. Just not a believer in Alvarado. Don’t see anyone that’s a TRUE contender after those 4. My dark horses would be Davenport (they went to state semis last year), and TCH. With brisbone coming back for playoffs and the others getting playing time without Brisbone or Stew and blowing out Hendo. I think that’s a huge confidence boost to them. You just can’t count them out. 

Edited by LetsGoEagles
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3 hours ago, LetsGoEagles said:

Agree. Just not a believer in Alvarado. Don’t see anyone that’s a TRUE contender after those 4. My dark horses would be Davenport (they went to state semis last year), and TCH. With brisbone coming back for playoffs and the others getting playing time without Brisbone or Stew and blowing out Hendo. I think that’s a huge confidence boost to them. You just can’t count them out. 

I wouldn't base that on The Chapel Hill blowing out Henderson cause every knows that, that was not the same Henderson that faced Kilgore.i would still give Chapel Hill a shot at State tho.

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Just now, Lion Breed said:

I wouldn't base that on The Chapel Hill blowing out Henderson cause every knows that, that was not the same Henderson that faced Kilgore.i would still give Chapel Hill a shot at State tho i would say LBJ is tough at a run.

 

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4 hours ago, Lion Breed said:

I wouldn't base that on The Chapel Hill blowing out Henderson cause every knows that, that was not the same Henderson that faced Kilgore.i would still give Chapel Hill a shot at State tho.

I wouldn’t unless the two best came back. Then yes ! 

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I think the legitimate Tier 1 contenders are Stephenville, Celina and Kilgore. Just a notch below them I’d throw in LBJ and Davenport and Alvarado and probably Sulphur Springs. That next tier down I’d say is maybe CHill and like a Bay City as a sleeper, or an Aubrey team that looks pretty dangerous all of a sudden. And Panther Creek is still loaded enough to break some hearts come playoff time, so I wouldn’t fall asleep on them just yet.

The problem I have with LBJ is the same one I have with Alvarado … their schedule is brutally weak. LBJ’s even more so than Alvarado. The Indians at least have wins over Glen Rose and Robinson. LBJ’s signature win is an 11-point W over Wimberley. LBJ has the athleticism to play with anyone. Alvarado has the horses on offense, but I just don’t think they have enough defense to be a legitimate contender.

 

 

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But in terms of being a clear cut above the rest, it’s Stephenville, Celina and Kilgore.

All have played pretty good schedules and all have come out looking like we thought they would.

Celina has beat the brakes off so many good teams so badly, we pause and wonder if they were really good teams to begin with. That’s what makes me lean towards Celina as the favorites right now, when you see that clear separation of beating other Top 10-15 teams and going, “Oh yeah … this team is different.”

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Celina is averaging 48 points per game and only allowing 13 per game, and the bulk of that average comes from the first two games of the season against Bellville and La Vega. If the Bobcats played those two teams again, it'd be ugly ugly.

In district play, Celina is still averaging 47.4 points per game and is only allowing 7.2. However, those numbers are a bit misleading, because the actual starting defense has only actually surrendered TWO scores through five district games. Panther Creek got a short field on a freak turnover for their only TD against Celina, and Aubrey had a beautiful long TD pass to probably the fastest kid in district (#1, don't remember his name). Apart from that, the other scores have come in garbage time late in games when the score was already well out of hand. So, in essence, the starting defense is giving up an average of 2.8 points per game in district play.

That's coming against teams that average 43 ppg (Panther Creek), 37.5 ppg (Aubrey), 35 ppg (Sulphur Springs), 26 ppg (Paris) and 26.4 ppg (Community). Lake Dallas averages 33.3 ppg, so we'll see if Celina keeps them below that in the last game of the regular season ... I'd be shocked if they don't. No matter how you slice it, that's domination.

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Because I don't root for any particular team I like to play devils advocate. Other than Panther Creek, who has Celina beat that really impresses you. I will admit that the Panther Creek win at the time was WOW. However, since then Panther Creek has struggles against Paris, Lake Dallas and Aubrey. Even though they won those games it makes you wonder just how good is Panther Creek really? I agree Celina IS the favorite, as they should be. I wouldn't crown them just yet though. 

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26 minutes ago, Footballfan99 said:

Because I don't root for any particular team I like to play devils advocate. Other than Panther Creek, who has Celina beat that really impresses you. I will admit that the Panther Creek win at the time was WOW. However, since then Panther Creek has struggles against Paris, Lake Dallas and Aubrey. Even though they won those games it makes you wonder just how good is Panther Creek really? I agree Celina IS the favorite, as they should be. I wouldn't crown them just yet though. 

Bellville, La Vega, Gunter, Franklin, Aubrey, Sulphur Springs, and Paris.

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4 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said:

Bellville, La Vega, Gunter, Franklin, Aubrey, Sulphur Springs, and Paris.

And Celina SHOULD have blown every one of those out. Kudos that they did what they did, but Gunter is a 3A! Celina BETTER blow them out! Hunter is a solid 3A. You BETTER blow them out. Celina is good. No doubt. 

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26 minutes ago, Footballfan99 said:

Because I don't root for any particular team I like to play devils advocate. Other than Panther Creek, who has Celina beat that really impresses you. I will admit that the Panther Creek win at the time was WOW. However, since then Panther Creek has struggles against Paris, Lake Dallas and Aubrey. Even though they won those games it makes you wonder just how good is Panther Creek really? I agree Celina IS the favorite, as they should be. I wouldn't crown them just yet though. 

Well the good news is no one here has a crown to hand out, so that settles that.

The conversation is centered around who are the legitimate D1 title contenders. Celina is in that group, right?

And you highlighted exactly what I said earlier ... Celina has beat so many good teams so badly, it's made us wonder if those were good teams or not. A legitimate question, but you can't deny that PC is loaded for bear. They were the No. 2 team in the state at the time and also beating the brakes off people. Celina absolutely embarrassed them at their place. I think that loss was a reality check for Panther Creek, and it was one of those losses that can just absolutely break your spirit, which is why they struggled against some of these other teams. I also think Aubrey has figured some things out, and has become very potent on offense. They are the fastest team Celina has faced this season, and I expect the Bobcats and the Chaps to face off again at Thanksgiving.

But sticking with PC, we'll see how much their spirit is broken this Friday when they play Sulphur Springs. I'm picking the Wildcats in that one, because of how physical they are. Maybe apart from Gunter, SS is the most physical team Celina has played this season, and PC just could not handle the Bobcats' physicality. They wanted absolutely no part of it once they got punched in the mouth. Celina was leaning on SS all game long, but the Wildcats never really gave up. They were relentless up front. While SS isn't quite as explosive offensively as PC, I think their style of play will give them the edge over PC.

Getting back to your other question, though, apart from Paris and Community, every other team Celina has played has been in the Top 10-15 at the time of the matchup. And Celina passed every test. Bellville still a contender, La Vega is a DII region contender, Gunter still No. 1 in their classification (and there was some built-in angst and rivalry in that game), Franklin is looking for a 5th straight title game appearance in their classification, Aubrey would maybe play in the Region II finals if they weren't on Celina's side of the bracket, and Sulphur Springs has been the most impressive overall, in my opinion, that Celina has faced.

It's hard to look at that schedule and those teams and the way Celina has beat them and not at least think ... maybe they are on a higher level this season.

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Bellville 6-3 with losses to 2 3a Teams. 

La Vega 6-3 

Franklin - 6-2 3a Team (Big name the last few years, not the same team

Aubrey- 6-4 

Sulphur Springs - Good team I will give you this one

Paris - 4-5 

Records don't tell it all I get it, these are some big name teams, but La Vega isn't the championship team they were a few years ago. Gunter is legit, but a 3a team punching up to play Celina, Franklin isn't the same and again punching up to play Celina. Aubrey and Paris are average teams. Sulphur Springs is a good win. 

Edited by Footballfan99
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2 minutes ago, Footballfan99 said:

Bellville 6-3 with losses to 2 3a Teams. 

La Vega 6-3 

Gunter - just got blown out by Graham

Franklin - 6-2 3a Team (Big name the last few years, not the same team

Aubrey- 6-4 

Sulphur Springs - Good team I will give you this one

Paris - 4-5 

Records don't tell it all I get it, these are some big name teams, but La Vega isn't the championship team they were a few years ago. Gunter is legit, but a 3a team punching up to play Celina, Franklin isn't the same and again punching up to play Celina. Aubrey and Paris are average teams. Sulphur Springs is a good win. 

Brock just lost to Graham not Gunter.

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3 minutes ago, d0tc0m said:

Well the good news is no one here has a crown to hand out, so that settles that.

The conversation is centered around who are the legitimate D1 title contenders. Celina is in that group, right?

And you highlighted exactly what I said earlier ... Celina has beat so many good teams so badly, it's made us wonder if those were good teams or not. A legitimate question, but you can't deny that PC is loaded for bear. They were the No. 2 team in the state at the time and also beating the brakes off people. Celina absolutely embarrassed them at their place. I think that loss was a reality check for Panther Creek, and it was one of those losses that can just absolutely break your spirit, which is why they struggled against some of these other teams. I also think Aubrey has figured some things out, and has become very potent on offense. They are the fastest team Celina has faced this season, and I expect the Bobcats and the Chaps to face off again at Thanksgiving.

But sticking with PC, we'll see how much their spirit is broken this Friday when they play Sulphur Springs. I'm picking the Wildcats in that one, because of how physical they are. Maybe apart from Gunter, SS is the most physical team Celina has played this season, and PC just could not handle the Bobcats' physicality. They wanted absolutely no part of it once they got punched in the mouth. Celina was leaning on SS all game long, but the Wildcats never really gave up. They were relentless up front. While SS isn't quite as explosive offensively as PC, I think their style of play will give them the edge over PC.

Getting back to your other question, though, apart from Paris and Community, every other team Celina has played has been in the Top 10-15 at the time of the matchup. And Celina passed every test. Bellville still a contender, La Vega is a DII region contender, Gunter still No. 1 in their classification (and there was some built-in angst and rivalry in that game), Franklin is looking for a 5th straight title game appearance in their classification, Aubrey would maybe play in the Region II finals if they weren't on Celina's side of the bracket, and Sulphur Springs has been the most impressive overall, in my opinion, that Celina has faced.

It's hard to look at that schedule and those teams and the way Celina has beat them and not at least think ... maybe they are on a higher level this season.

Good analysis and I agree, I'm not here to say they shouldn't be in the conversation. I'm merely stating that they have wins over big name teams; I just wonder how much the names are caring the weight of the win rather than the caliber of team they are this season. 

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7 minutes ago, Footballfan99 said:

Good analysis and I agree, I'm not here to say they shouldn't be in the conversation. I'm merely stating that they have wins over big name teams; I just wonder how much the names are caring the weight of the win rather than the caliber of team they are this season. 

Legitimate question, no doubt. But who are the other title contenders in 4A DI, and who are their legitimate wins against?

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16 minutes ago, d0tc0m said:

Well the good news is no one here has a crown to hand out, so that settles that.

The conversation is centered around who are the legitimate D1 title contenders. Celina is in that group, right?

And you highlighted exactly what I said earlier ... Celina has beat so many good teams so badly, it's made us wonder if those were good teams or not. A legitimate question, but you can't deny that PC is loaded for bear. They were the No. 2 team in the state at the time and also beating the brakes off people. Celina absolutely embarrassed them at their place. I think that loss was a reality check for Panther Creek, and it was one of those losses that can just absolutely break your spirit, which is why they struggled against some of these other teams. I also think Aubrey has figured some things out, and has become very potent on offense. They are the fastest team Celina has faced this season, and I expect the Bobcats and the Chaps to face off again at Thanksgiving.

But sticking with PC, we'll see how much their spirit is broken this Friday when they play Sulphur Springs. I'm picking the Wildcats in that one, because of how physical they are. Maybe apart from Gunter, SS is the most physical team Celina has played this season, and PC just could not handle the Bobcats' physicality. They wanted absolutely no part of it once they got punched in the mouth. Celina was leaning on SS all game long, but the Wildcats never really gave up. They were relentless up front. While SS isn't quite as explosive offensively as PC, I think their style of play will give them the edge over PC.

Getting back to your other question, though, apart from Paris and Community, every other team Celina has played has been in the Top 10-15 at the time of the matchup. And Celina passed every test. Bellville still a contender, La Vega is a DII region contender, Gunter still No. 1 in their classification (and there was some built-in angst and rivalry in that game), Franklin is looking for a 5th straight title game appearance in their classification, Aubrey would maybe play in the Region II finals if they weren't on Celina's side of the bracket, and Sulphur Springs has been the most impressive overall, in my opinion, that Celina has faced.

It's hard to look at that schedule and those teams and the way Celina has beat them and not at least think ... maybe they are on a higher level this season.

Celina will probably win state............But Bellville was beaten by 2 3A schools - take them off your accomplishments

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1 minute ago, d0tc0m said:

Legitimate question, no doubt. But who are the other title contenders in 4A DI, and who are their legitimate wins against?

I think they are all suspect. Kilgore's loses to Gilmer, though controversial isn't looking good.  Their lose to Henderson isn't looking good at all with them potentially going to miss the playoffs. LBJ hasn't played anyone except Wimberley and I thought they would win that more convincingly. I like Davenport, their offense is one of the top in 4, but I wonder about their defense ( I will say I have only watched them play once, last year against chapel hill ) defense didn't have an answer for their speed or physicality. I think my favorite would have to be Stephenville / Celina. I think they are the two best teams right now. Should be an interesting Semi final game

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