CreateMyAccount Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ Selzer has released a new poll yesterday for the state of Iowa with Harris up 3% in the state. Selzer has been the gold standard poll across the nation and all week, everyone has had their eyes peeled for the poll to drop. The notion going into the poll was that a 9% in favor of Trump would mean a Trump win nationally, a 6-8% Trump lead would mean a close race nationally, and anything less would mean a win for Harris nationally, no one expected a case where Harris would actually be up in the poll. The accuracy of the Selzer poll since 2012 cannot be understated for the state of Iowa, out of the 7 elections since, 6 of them have been within 1-2% on the final poll vs the actual result, the only miss being in 2018 with the governorship in Iowa, Selzer was off 5%. Selzer predicted in 2016 that Trump would win the state by 8%, he won by 9% bucking the trend of the race being perceived as a toss up by other pollsters. Similar in 2020 other pollsters had Biden close, 1-2% in favor of Trump, but Selzer predicted 7% for Trump, he won by 8%. Part of the reason is that Selzer does not herd their polls, meaning they report the data as it is and don't try to adjust it to make it seem more "correct". Pollsters in 2022 and 2024 have herded their data quite a bit after being embarrassed about the errors in the polls in 2016 and 2020. They do not want to appear to be underestimating Trump for a third presidential election cycle, so they herd the data to produce results that won't seemingly tarnish their reputation. This is especially prominent in swing states and the national polling likely due to media interest. However, non expected swing states this cycle have been producing very interesting poll results, such as last week a poll in Kansas had Trump up only 4%, and now this Selzer poll with Harris up 3% in Iowa. The margin of error with this selzer poll would only bring Trump up to winning Iowa by 4%, which would still be a very likely Harris win nationally. The betting markets noticed all of this and caught on last night when the poll dropped. The odds in every betting market for a Trump victory dropped 10-15%. Selzer is the gold standard of polls nationally, that can't be understated. A Harris win appears more and more likely. Is it that women and white voters in the midwest are switching to Harris, or is it across the country as a whole? Does this mean that Allred will win Texas? Well, I believe it is the country as a whole and Allred will win in Texas, but that isn't what the poll directly says, just what it suggests. Poll does spell out a potential landslide for Harris if it does come into reality, it's likely, but even if it is off by 8%, that's still a Harris win nationally. Conclusion, Harris is up 3% in Iowa in a golden standard poll. This means that Harris will very likely win the election, but we won't know until election day comes of course, well, more likely the day after election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monte1076 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 3 Author Share Posted November 3 3 minutes ago, Monte1076 said: https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president Yes, there was a drop in the averages on betting markets, in the markets, they still have Trump winning in them, but it has been a back and forth where at some times of the night, Harris was in the lead, even on polymarket last night. I recall last night seeing Trump at 49% when he was at 60% the previous day. The likely reason that Trump is leading in the betting market is because the majority of polls have herded data, which I addressed in the above post. The unherded data suggests a Harris victory, landslide even. However, polls aren't the actual results and we will see come Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 3 hours ago, CreateMyAccount said: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ Selzer has released a new poll yesterday for the state of Iowa with Harris up 3% in the state. Selzer has been the gold standard poll across the nation and all week, everyone has had their eyes peeled for the poll to drop. The notion going into the poll was that a 9% in favor of Trump would mean a Trump win nationally, a 6-8% Trump lead would mean a close race nationally, and anything less would mean a win for Harris nationally, no one expected a case where Harris would actually be up in the poll. The accuracy of the Selzer poll since 2012 cannot be understated for the state of Iowa, out of the 7 elections since, 6 of them have been within 1-2% on the final poll vs the actual result, the only miss being in 2018 with the governorship in Iowa, Selzer was off 5%. Selzer predicted in 2016 that Trump would win the state by 8%, he won by 9% bucking the trend of the race being perceived as a toss up by other pollsters. Similar in 2020 other pollsters had Biden close, 1-2% in favor of Trump, but Selzer predicted 7% for Trump, he won by 8%. Part of the reason is that Selzer does not herd their polls, meaning they report the data as it is and don't try to adjust it to make it seem more "correct". Pollsters in 2022 and 2024 have herded their data quite a bit after being embarrassed about the errors in the polls in 2016 and 2020. They do not want to appear to be underestimating Trump for a third presidential election cycle, so they herd the data to produce results that won't seemingly tarnish their reputation. This is especially prominent in swing states and the national polling likely due to media interest. However, non expected swing states this cycle have been producing very interesting poll results, such as last week a poll in Kansas had Trump up only 4%, and now this Selzer poll with Harris up 3% in Iowa. The margin of error with this selzer poll would only bring Trump up to winning Iowa by 4%, which would still be a very likely Harris win nationally. The betting markets noticed all of this and caught on last night when the poll dropped. The odds in every betting market for a Trump victory dropped 10-15%. Selzer is the gold standard of polls nationally, that can't be understated. A Harris win appears more and more likely. Is it that women and white voters in the midwest are switching to Harris, or is it across the country as a whole? Does this mean that Allred will win Texas? Well, I believe it is the country as a whole and Allred will win in Texas, but that isn't what the poll directly says, just what it suggests. Poll does spell out a potential landslide for Harris if it does come into reality, it's likely, but even if it is off by 8%, that's still a Harris win nationally. Conclusion, Harris is up 3% in Iowa in a golden standard poll. This means that Harris will very likely win the election, but we won't know until election day comes of course, well, more likely the day after election day. You have that bass ackwards ... the real consensus is that Trump voters are under represented in just about every poll .... if Trump is even in the polls, he is actually 3-6% ahead .... all republicans in the race for POTUS have historically been underrepresented in these biased liberal polls ..... If Trump is even, he will actually win by several percentage points .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 3 Author Share Posted November 3 9 minutes ago, KirtFalcon said: You have that bass ackwards ... the real consensus is that Trump voters are under represented in just about every poll .... if Trump is even in the polls, he is actually 3-6% ahead .... all republicans in the race for POTUS have historically been underrepresented in these biased liberal polls ..... If Trump is even, he will actually win by several percentage points .... You see, that is addressed in the post. Pollsters don't want to be seen as underestimating Trump for a third time, so now they herd their data to show it as even. You can see it in their crosstabs. Also, this Selzer poll in 2016 and 2020 was much further to the right than the other polls in Iowa, and the Selzer poll ended up being correct. People thought that the Selzer poll must have been wrong because it was such an outlier, but it was correct. Now it is the other way around. Selzer is much further to the left on Iowa than other pollsters, for now it is an outlier, but the reputation and accuracy the poll has had, suggests a Harris victory nationally is likely. Not to mention the poll from Fort Hayes last week for Kansas showing Trump +5 in Kansas, and the poll the other day in Ohio showing Trump +3, it really goes to show that in the non mainstream swing states, the polls are doing something much different than the mainstream swing states polling. The likely factor is the herding of the swing state polls. In the Selzer poll, independent women broke for Harris by 28%. Highly suggesting that women will be the deciding factor this election, especially with across the country, women have lead men in early voting by 10%. We will see Tuesday, don't be shocked if Harris wins by a large margin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blesseddaily Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 hours ago, CreateMyAccount said: You see, that is addressed in the post. Pollsters don't want to be seen as underestimating Trump for a third time, so now they herd their data to show it as even. You can see it in their crosstabs. Also, this Selzer poll in 2016 and 2020 was much further to the right than the other polls in Iowa, and the Selzer poll ended up being correct. People thought that the Selzer poll must have been wrong because it was such an outlier, but it was correct. Now it is the other way around. Selzer is much further to the left on Iowa than other pollsters, for now it is an outlier, but the reputation and accuracy the poll has had, suggests a Harris victory nationally is likely. Not to mention the poll from Fort Hayes last week for Kansas showing Trump +5 in Kansas, and the poll the other day in Ohio showing Trump +3, it really goes to show that in the non mainstream swing states, the polls are doing something much different than the mainstream swing states polling. The likely factor is the herding of the swing state polls. In the Selzer poll, independent women broke for Harris by 28%. Highly suggesting that women will be the deciding factor this election, especially with across the country, women have lead men in early voting by 10%. We will see Tuesday, don't be shocked if Harris wins by a large margin. Why would we be shocked? Remember Biden supposedly got more than any candidate in the history of our nation...those 81 million "voters" are going to be counted again, I'm sure!!! The cemeteries turn out in big numbers for presidential elections these days!! LOLOLOL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 5 minutes ago, blesseddaily said: Why would we be shocked? Remember Biden supposedly got more than any candidate in the history of our nation...those 81 million "voters" are going to be counted again, I'm sure!!! The cemeteries turn out in big numbers for presidential elections these days!! LOLOLOL!!!! High voter turnout and population growth is the reason if you want to be serious. This election does have a chance to have a higher voter turnout than 2020 according to the early voting data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blesseddaily Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 15 minutes ago, CreateMyAccount said: High voter turnout and population growth is the reason if you want to be serious. This election does have a chance to have a higher voter turnout than 2020 according to the early voting data. Is the massive voting fraud figured in also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryLaverty Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 minute ago, blesseddaily said: Is the massive voting fraud figured in also? Good point, Rudy G! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blesseddaily Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Just now, BarryLaverty said: Good point, Rudy G! Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirtFalcon Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 4 hours ago, CreateMyAccount said: You see, that is addressed in the post. Pollsters don't want to be seen as underestimating Trump for a third time, so now they herd their data to show it as even. You can see it in their crosstabs. Also, this Selzer poll in 2016 and 2020 was much further to the right than the other polls in Iowa, and the Selzer poll ended up being correct. People thought that the Selzer poll must have been wrong because it was such an outlier, but it was correct. Now it is the other way around. Selzer is much further to the left on Iowa than other pollsters, for now it is an outlier, but the reputation and accuracy the poll has had, suggests a Harris victory nationally is likely. Not to mention the poll from Fort Hayes last week for Kansas showing Trump +5 in Kansas, and the poll the other day in Ohio showing Trump +3, it really goes to show that in the non mainstream swing states, the polls are doing something much different than the mainstream swing states polling. The likely factor is the herding of the swing state polls. In the Selzer poll, independent women broke for Harris by 28%. Highly suggesting that women will be the deciding factor this election, especially with across the country, women have lead men in early voting by 10%. We will see Tuesday, don't be shocked if Harris wins by a large margin. If you believe that, I've got some beach front property in Arizona to sell you .... the real reason they are fudging the numbers to show a close race is to discourage voters from voting for Trump ..... that's a true storie .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWG91 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 They've pretended the fake president is real these last 4 years no reason to expect they wont pretend a fake nominee cant also be next fake president for another 4 years. I thought he was crazy at the time but Rush was right, they'll eventually do away with elections. They're just too important to be decided by all us garbage deplorables out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 8 hours ago, CreateMyAccount said: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ Selzer has released a new poll yesterday for the state of Iowa with Harris up 3% in the state. Selzer has been the gold standard poll across the nation and all week, everyone has had their eyes peeled for the poll to drop. The notion going into the poll was that a 9% in favor of Trump would mean a Trump win nationally, a 6-8% Trump lead would mean a close race nationally, and anything less would mean a win for Harris nationally, no one expected a case where Harris would actually be up in the poll. The accuracy of the Selzer poll since 2012 cannot be understated for the state of Iowa, out of the 7 elections since, 6 of them have been within 1-2% on the final poll vs the actual result, the only miss being in 2018 with the governorship in Iowa, Selzer was off 5%. Selzer predicted in 2016 that Trump would win the state by 8%, he won by 9% bucking the trend of the race being perceived as a toss up by other pollsters. Similar in 2020 other pollsters had Biden close, 1-2% in favor of Trump, but Selzer predicted 7% for Trump, he won by 8%. Part of the reason is that Selzer does not herd their polls, meaning they report the data as it is and don't try to adjust it to make it seem more "correct". Pollsters in 2022 and 2024 have herded their data quite a bit after being embarrassed about the errors in the polls in 2016 and 2020. They do not want to appear to be underestimating Trump for a third presidential election cycle, so they herd the data to produce results that won't seemingly tarnish their reputation. This is especially prominent in swing states and the national polling likely due to media interest. However, non expected swing states this cycle have been producing very interesting poll results, such as last week a poll in Kansas had Trump up only 4%, and now this Selzer poll with Harris up 3% in Iowa. The margin of error with this selzer poll would only bring Trump up to winning Iowa by 4%, which would still be a very likely Harris win nationally. The betting markets noticed all of this and caught on last night when the poll dropped. The odds in every betting market for a Trump victory dropped 10-15%. Selzer is the gold standard of polls nationally, that can't be understated. A Harris win appears more and more likely. Is it that women and white voters in the midwest are switching to Harris, or is it across the country as a whole? Does this mean that Allred will win Texas? Well, I believe it is the country as a whole and Allred will win in Texas, but that isn't what the poll directly says, just what it suggests. Poll does spell out a potential landslide for Harris if it does come into reality, it's likely, but even if it is off by 8%, that's still a Harris win nationally. Conclusion, Harris is up 3% in Iowa in a golden standard poll. This means that Harris will very likely win the election, but we won't know until election day comes of course, well, more likely the day after election day. Propaganda....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 You guys would've said this poll was the only accurate one in 2016 and 2020 when it shown Trump winning Iowa by a larger margin than the majority of polls, but now that it shows the reverse, it is propaganda? Folks, that's biases at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 1 hour ago, RETIREDFAN1 said: One poll is right, one is wrong, will be interesting to see the results, especially with the historical accuracy Selzer has. I'm in disbelief that it has Harris up, but with their track record, I have to believe it's true. Election night and the days after will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 21 minutes ago, CreateMyAccount said: One poll is right, one is wrong, will be interesting to see the results, especially with the historical accuracy Selzer has. I'm in disbelief that it has Harris up, but with their track record, I have to believe it's true. Election night and the days after will be interesting to see what happens. All polls are propaganda......I only post them for 2 reasons...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 11 minutes ago, RETIREDFAN1 said: All polls are propaganda......I only post them for 2 reasons...... Coping and hoping? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 2 minutes ago, CreateMyAccount said: Coping and hoping? Lol Piss off libnuts and draw @DannyZuco out of the shadows........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 19 minutes ago, RETIREDFAN1 said: Now this is coping and hoping lol. Let's see what happens come Tuesday and the days after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 31 minutes ago, RETIREDFAN1 said: Piss off libnuts and draw @DannyZuco out of the shadows........ 11 minutes ago, CreateMyAccount said: Now this is coping and hoping lol. Let's see what happens come Tuesday and the days after Mission accomplished........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 2 minutes ago, RETIREDFAN1 said: Mission accomplished........ Nah, we see based off those pick ems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 After seeing early voter turnouts and the Selzer poll, pollsters finally are admitting that they sampled in a way that wouldn't underestimate Trump, they wanted a certain result, and got it. Selzer released the cat out of the bag. More info in the thread. Pollsters have herded polls this cycle to prevent being embarrassed a third time for Trump, unfortunately in doing so, they are opening themselves up to being embarrassed from the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamewatcher63 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now