STATE SEMIFINAL: Canadian vs Gunter Friday 6 PM @ ACU in Abilene

[THEHARDWAY]

2 hours ago, Pax said:

Ok, so just for the heck of it, I went back and looked at all my Gunter vs Canadian predictions.  Not in depth, but just the overall prediction.  It's pretty incredible we have built up quite a history in such a short amount of time - especially considering you have to make it to the state semi-final for this game to happen. 

YEAR   PREDICTION           ACTUAL

2016    24-21 Gunter          44-34 Gunter

2017    37-31 Gunter          56-27 Gunter

2018    35-33 Gunter         17-7 Canadian

2019    33-27 Canadian     27-20 Gunter

2020    43-28 Canadian     33-6 Canadian

2022    39-32 Gunter         21-20 Gunter

I got the winner right 4 out of 6 times, so basically just a game over .500.  A lot of those games could have gone either way, so let's just say I flip a coin and throw numbers out there and pretend to know what I'm doing.  There have only really been two convincing wins I'd say.  The 2017 56-27 Gunter win (I believe they got out to a 35-7 lead and sort of traded scores from there on out.  The other convincing win was the 2020 33-6 Canadian win (the only Canadian/Gunter game I've missed - I watched a stream I'm pretty sure).  Overall, Gunter has the slight edge in average points per matchup - - outscoring Canadian by an average of 25-23.  After this week's game, Gunter and Canadian will have played 70% of a regular season's worth of state semifinal games in 8 years.  We've only missed playing once in the semifinal game in that span. 

Anyway, in this one - considering all games played :

Gunter is averaging 60.4 ppg against defenses that allow 30.5 on average (29.9 more).  Gunter is holding teams that score 34.7 on average to 6.8 per game (27.9 fewer) for a total swing of +57.8.

Canadian is averaging 60.6 ppg against defenses that allow 26.9 on average (33.8 more).  Canadian is holding teams that score 29.4 on average to 14.2 per game (15.2 fewer) for a total swing of +49.0.

Based on this, I get a 45-37 Gunter win. 

Taking Gunter's best 3 "swing" games vs Canadian's 3 best, I get a Gunter 59-40 win.

Taking each teams worst swing games, I get a Canadian 35-32 win.

Gunter's best 3 vs Canadian's worst 3, and I get 59-24 Gunter.

Canadian's 3 best vs Gunter's 3 worst, and I get 51-32 Canadian.

Considering only district and playoff games, I get Gunter in a 48-37 win.

Considering only playoff games, I get Gunter in a 48-39 win.

Only considering games by each team against opponents who allow fewer than 24 points per game, I get 49-33 Gunter.

Only considering games by each team against opponents who score more than 35 per game, I get 47-26 Gunter.

Overall average of all these arbitrary ways of looking at this game and cherry-picking this or that, and you end up in basically the same place as you would just considering the whole season for both teams.

I'm going to take Gunter in this one, 45-35, but because I don't know if this matchup will ever happen again, I'm going 44-34.  Perhaps ending it like we started it.  There's a chance Canadian moves down and Gunter moves up.  I guess it depends on where they draw the new lines, but this incredible run by both teams - all these state semifinal matchups - could be coming to an end.  Though, I've heard Canadian might be staying up one more cycle.  Can't remember who I heard that from. Or we might already know.  I've been looking at so many different things, I've probably confused myself. Either way - good luck to both teams.  I expect another good one.   

Side note, according to Pigskin, in all of 11-man football (2A-6A), Gunter is #1 in average margin of victory.  Canadian is #3.  

Thanks bud. We will stay up this cycle, and possibly the next. After that will be small forever!

[Pax]

1 hour ago, THEHARDWAY said:

Thanks bud. We will stay up this cycle, and possibly the next. After that will be small forever!

Gunter's only gonna get bigger.  They are right down the pipeline of growth.  Frisco, Prosper, Celina, now Gunter.  I believe Gunter turned in 364.  The last cutoff was 359 (360 bumped you to D1).  

What I understand is the new cutoffs won't be announced until Feb, but the trend would put the new cutoff above Gunter's 364, so looks like we have one cycle left at D2 if that trend continues.  Perhaps 3 more Gunter/Canadian semifinal games?

[TigerBlue09]

1 hour ago, Pax said:

Gunter's only gonna get bigger.  They are right down the pipeline of growth.  Frisco, Prosper, Celina, now Gunter.  I believe Gunter turned in 364.  The last cutoff was 359 (360 bumped you to D1).  

What I understand is the new cutoffs won't be announced until Feb, but the trend would put the new cutoff above Gunter's 364, so looks like we have one cycle left at D2 if that trend continues.  Perhaps 3 more Gunter/Canadian semifinal games?

For a community that’s growing pretty fast is hard to believe it was only a 10 student growth

[iRockNewbzz]

[THEHARDWAY]

1 hour ago, Pax said:

Gunter's only gonna get bigger.  They are right down the pipeline of growth.  Frisco, Prosper, Celina, now Gunter.  I believe Gunter turned in 364.  The last cutoff was 359 (360 bumped you to D1).  

What I understand is the new cutoffs won't be announced until Feb, but the trend would put the new cutoff above Gunter's 364, so looks like we have one cycle left at D2 if that trend continues.  Perhaps 3 more Gunter/Canadian semifinal games?

Hopefully so!!

[Pax]

20 minutes ago, TigerBlue09 said:

For a community that’s growing pretty fast is hard to believe it was only a 10 student growth

Football.  

Gunter vs Canadian.

State Semi Final.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Pax

[THEHARDWAY]

14 minutes ago, TigerBlue09 said:

For a community that’s growing pretty fast is hard to believe it was only a 10 student growth

The area is growing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Gunter is. Their numbers are in line (with growth) with what TEA showed for last realignment. Last years class was big, and this years senior class is small. They aren’t accepting transfers, so unless growth is in the district, or move ins, won’t change that much. I’d be curious to see Gunters district square miles vs East Texas. It seems like there is a town every 10 miles over there. 
 

Canadian is opposite. This years senior class is small, but 10th grade is big, and so is the 8th. If we stay up, that is what will cause it. Every class 7th and below is 55 or less, with some in low 40’s. 

[Pax]

23 minutes ago, THEHARDWAY said:

The area is growing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Gunter is. Their numbers are in line (with growth) with what TEA showed for last realignment. Last years class was big, and this years senior class is small. They aren’t accepting transfers, so unless growth is in the district, or move ins, won’t change that much. I’d be curious to see Gunters district square miles vs East Texas. It seems like there is a town every 10 miles over there. 
 

Canadian is opposite. This years senior class is small, but 10th grade is big, and so is the 8th. If we stay up, that is what will cause it. Every class 7th and below is 55 or less, with some in low 40’s. 

Yeah, the three towns I named (Celina, Prosper, and Frisco are all north up 289.  Gunter is still it's own town.  You can leave in any cardinal direction and know you've left town.  10 miles north to Celina.  Another 10 or so to Prosper.  Another 10 or so to Frisco.  Right now, there's still nothing between Gunter and Celina for 5-6 miles.  Once you get to Celina, you're in the city from there to Dallas.  There's no empty space anymore once you hit Celina.  Gunter still has the same single red light they added when I was in high school or maybe a little after, and you can still "leave town".  Once you get to Celina, unless you're heading pretty far south of Dallas, you're not leaving the city for a while.  There's still a nice few miles of country between Celina and Gunter to the north for now.  

I started this talk, but I didn't mean for it to get into that crap, so this is on me I guess.  Gunter is growing - and the rate is gonna keep increasing because that's the direction of the growth. That's what I meant.  Nobody is denying that.  My only reason for even mentioning it was that the Gunter/Canadian matchup might not have many more chances to come to fruition; not bring the haters out of the woodwork.  We are all well aware of the growth.  Sorry I brought it up.  Football.  Not AT ALL directed at you, THEHARDAWAY.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Pax

[Newtonres7586]

On 12/2/2023 at 3:07 PM, dfield68,83,85,08,09,10 said:

I honestly think Canadian will win. But I want Gunter too win because of we can make it to state I want us to be the ones to knock em off. 

I understand the sentiment, but you’re gonna get the  best whichever way it goes.

[Newtonres7586]

13 hours ago, Pax said:

Yeah, the three towns I named (Celina, Prosper, and Frisco are all north up 289.  Gunter is still it's own town.  You can leave in any cardinal direction and know you've left town.  10 miles north to Celina.  Another 10 or so to Prosper.  Another 10 or so to Frisco.  Right now, there's still nothing between Gunter and Celina for 5-6 miles.  Once you get to Celina, you're in the city from there to Dallas.  There's no empty space anymore once you hit Celina.  Gunter still has the same single red light they added when I was in high school or maybe a little after, and you can still "leave town".  Once you get to Celina, unless you're heading pretty far south of Dallas, you're not leaving the city for a while.  There's still a nice few miles of country between Celina and Gunter to the north for now.  

I started this talk, but I didn't mean for it to get into that crap, so this is on me I guess.  Gunter is growing - and the rate is gonna keep increasing because that's the direction of the growth. That's what I meant.  Nobody is denying that.  My only reason for even mentioning it was that the Gunter/Canadian matchup might not have many more chances to come to fruition; not bring the haters out of the woodwork.  We are all well aware of the growth.  Sorry I brought it up.  Football.  Not AT ALL directed at you, THEHARDAWAY.

You are right on the description on Gunter. My Brother-in-Law and Sister-in Law lives in Anna. We go through Gunter a lot going to see them. A lot of empty space, one red light, and that’s about it. Oh, they do have a great ice cream shop there.Lol

Edited December 5, 2023 by Newtonres7586

[dfield68,83,85,08,09,10]

9 minutes ago, Newtonres7586 said:

I understand the sentiment, but you’re gonna get the  best whichever way it goes.

Facts. 

[Newtonres7586]

11 minutes ago, dfield68,83,85,08,09,10 said:

Facts. 

No facts, just an opinion that the team that wins will be the better team. Hence you get the best out of two to play. If you wanna be the best, then play the best.

 

[TigerBlue09]

1 hour ago, THEHARDWAY said:

The area is growing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Gunter is. Their numbers are in line (with growth) with what TEA showed for last realignment. Last years class was big, and this years senior class is small. They aren’t accepting transfers, so unless growth is in the district, or move ins, won’t change that much. I’d be curious to see Gunters district square miles vs East Texas. It seems like there is a town every 10 miles over there. 
 

Canadian is opposite. This years senior class is small, but 10th grade is big, and so is the 8th. If we stay up, that is what will cause it. Every class 7th and below is 55 or less, with some in low 40’s. 

I would say 5 miles east Hughes springs 

12 south Ore City 

20 north Mount pleasant

17 west Pittsburg

[GTAlumnus]

1 hour ago, TigerBlue09 said:

For a community that’s growing pretty fast is hard to believe it was only a 10 student growth

Edited December 5, 2023 by GTAlumnus

[ROHOAlum]

3 hours ago, Pax said:

Gunter's only gonna get bigger.  They are right down the pipeline of growth.  Frisco, Prosper, Celina, now Gunter.  I believe Gunter turned in 364.  The last cutoff was 359 (360 bumped you to D1).  

What I understand is the new cutoffs won't be announced until Feb, but the trend would put the new cutoff above Gunter's 364, so looks like we have one cycle left at D2 if that trend continues.  Perhaps 3 more Gunter/Canadian semifinal games?

cutoffs announced tomorrow uil sent out email notifications....new alignments wont be til feb 1

[Pax]

1 minute ago, ROHOAlum said:

cutoffs announced tomorrow uil sent out email notifications....new alignments wont be til feb 1

Thanks.  Do you mean cutoffs announced (so you know what classification you'll be in), but the district lineups won't be announced until Feb?

[ROHOAlum]

Just now, Pax said:

Thanks.  Do you mean cutoffs announced (so you know what classification you'll be in), but the district lineups won't be announced until Feb?

yes so everyone will know where they fall classification wise, but wont know districts til feb

[Pax]

Just now, ROHOAlum said:

yes so everyone will know where they fall classification wise, but wont know districts til feb

Gotcha.  Thanks.

[THEHARDWAY]

Thought this was pretty cool. Do I think we will throw for 295 this week, no. But to have stats mentioned in the same vacinity as Kyler Murray is pretty damn cool. Obviously, talent level at 6A is way different.

 

[THEHARDWAY]

10 hours ago, Pax said:

Yeah, the three towns I named (Celina, Prosper, and Frisco are all north up 289.  Gunter is still it's own town.  You can leave in any cardinal direction and know you've left town.  10 miles north to Celina.  Another 10 or so to Prosper.  Another 10 or so to Frisco.  Right now, there's still nothing between Gunter and Celina for 5-6 miles.  Once you get to Celina, you're in the city from there to Dallas.  There's no empty space anymore once you hit Celina.  Gunter still has the same single red light they added when I was in high school or maybe a little after, and you can still "leave town".  Once you get to Celina, unless you're heading pretty far south of Dallas, you're not leaving the city for a while.  There's still a nice few miles of country between Celina and Gunter to the north for now.  

I started this talk, but I didn't mean for it to get into that crap, so this is on me I guess.  Gunter is growing - and the rate is gonna keep increasing because that's the direction of the growth. That's what I meant.  Nobody is denying that.  My only reason for even mentioning it was that the Gunter/Canadian matchup might not have many more chances to come to fruition; not bring the haters out of the woodwork.  We are all well aware of the growth.  Sorry I brought it up.  Football.  Not AT ALL directed at you, THEHARDAWAY.

No worries here bud. I’ve sad many times on here I think the “talk” is BS. You play who you play. Complaining about school size is a loser mentality. Both teams play much larger schools every year anyways. 

[GatorDan]

So its the Collin County All Star team vs. The Amarillo ISD Please move to our small town team.

 

should be interesting.

[ROHOAlum]

1 hour ago, THEHARDWAY said:

Thought this was pretty cool. Do I think we will throw for 295 this week, no. But to have stats mentioned in the same vacinity as Kyler Murray is pretty damn cool. Obviously, talent level at 6A is way different.

 

Yea I seen this last night on fb, qb is a stud

[THEHARDWAY]

1 hour ago, GatorDan said:

So its the Collin County All Star team vs. The Amarillo ISD Please move to our small town team.

 

should be interesting.

Show me on the doll where we hurt you……we have had 1 kid move in from Amarillo a few years back, and he grew up in Canadian. I believe every kid with the exception of one, has been in Canadian since at least 7th grade, and 95% have been here since 1st. 
 

try harder….

[THEHARDWAY]

2 minutes ago, THEHARDWAY said:

Show me on the doll where we hurt you……we have had 1 kid move in from Amarillo a few years back, and he grew up in Canadian. I believe every kid with the exception of one, has been in Canadian since at least 7th grade, and 95% have been here since 1st. 
 

try harder….

@iRockNewbzzthought you were better than that….

[iRockNewbzz]

 

3 minutes ago, THEHARDWAY said:

@iRockNewbzzthought you were better than that….

100% my fault, finger pointing the wrong way. Definitely mis-clicked on the icon is all, simple mistake