College Football Playoff Predictions

[TxFight]

Just now, Lobo97 said:

Based on what? You mention the rankings, let's look at them...

 

If Bama loses to Georgia, they would finish with 3 wins against Top 25 teams. 

If Michigan wins out, they would finish with 5 wins against Top 25 teams. And they would be a conference champion. 

So what would make Bama a better candidate? Just because they're Bama?

Look at how the committee views the Big 10; 1 loss Michigan at 4, 1 loss Ohio State is at 10, 3 loss Penn State at 14, 4 loss northwestern at 22.

Meanwhile the SEC has 0 loss bama at 1, 1 loss Georgia at 5, 2 loss LSU at 7, 3 loss Florida at 13, 3 loss Kentucky at 17, 4 loss Mississippi State at 21.

 

What those rankings tell me, is that the committee views the SEC (and wins over them, and opponents wins over them) with higher regard than the big 10. 

Also, Michigan's best win is going to be what? On the road at a top 15-20 Ohio State? Alabama would have a win over borderline top 5 LSU on the road.

 

And for the record, I don't want it to happen this way. But unless Georgia were to just beat the brakes off of Bama, Bama is going to be in the playoff with 1 loss. 

[Lobo97]

12 minutes ago, TxFight said:

Look at how the committee views the Big 10; 1 loss Michigan at 4, 1 loss Ohio State is at 10, 3 loss Penn State at 14, 4 loss northwestern at 22.

Meanwhile the SEC has 0 loss bama at 1, 1 loss Georgia at 5, 2 loss LSU at 7, 3 loss Florida at 13, 3 loss Kentucky at 17, 4 loss Mississippi State at 21.

 

What those rankings tell me, is that the committee views the SEC (and wins over them, and opponents wins over them) with higher regard than the big 10. 

Also, Michigan's best win is going to be what? On the road at a top 15-20 Ohio State? Alabama would have a win over borderline top 5 LSU on the road.

 

And for the record, I don't want it to happen this way. But unless Georgia were to just beat the brakes off of Bama, Bama is going to be in the playoff with 1 loss. 

See, I see that and I see it more even. 

 

Bama with 0 losses is obviously going to be ranked higher. 

Michigan with 1 loss is higher than Georgia with 1 loss. 

Ohio Stat is 10 with 1 loss because they lost by 29 to an unranked team. 

Florida and Penn State are back to back. 

Northwestern and Miss State are back to back. 

[PelvisPresley]

1 hour ago, Lobo97 said:

I don't agree with that. 

I don't see Clemson or ND losing a game at this point. They're both in undefeated. 

That's 2.

If Georgia beats Bama, Georgia is in. 

That's 3. 

Bama is not in the same situation they were last year with Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bama and Wisconsin both finished with 1 loss. Neither won their conference. That's why Bama got in over Wisc. Bama did not win their conference, but Ohio State did. However, Bama had 1 loss, OSU had 2. Bama got in. 

 

This year, if Michigan wins out...

Bama 1 loss - no conference champion.

Michigan 1 loss - conference champion. 

 

There's no reasonable argument that can be made to put Bama in over Michigan, in that scenario. 

no point aside from if Alabama loses, the selection committee could literally just see fit to drop them to say #3 based upon them hammering butt all season. I too unfortunately agree that Clemson and Notre Dame seem like locks to take 2 of the 4 spots. I think SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey actually is praying that Georgia can knock off 'Bama at this point because it would create the utter chaos and more than likely get the SEC 2 teams again. They will not leave out the SEC Champ...so the Bulldogs would go then I still think "Bama is going...there's no way the committee will come out and say "well on a blank page, we said there were 4 teams better than the Tide"...even if I hate them. I think Michigan at this point wins out. I think WVU blows their chance and the Big 12 championship is Texas vs Oklahoma, which I think the Sooners get UT this time in a real close one...Texas just won't be healthy enough. I don't think Ohio State has a shot even if they beat Michigan and ran the table...just too much in their way...Urban already boxing up things in his office and rubbing his head after every play, so he can say to anyone that'll listen, "I'm having headaches, a brain tumor thing I've heard from my doctor". In the end, the Wolverines, the Sooners, and the Wash State Cougs will all be saying "what the heck, we had a hella year and I didn't think this was going to happen again!" Plus you'll have another year of UCF going undefeated but not even getting a chance to get beat...everyone should get a chance to lose...or win. HOOSIERS...

This will be a great reason for us to go to at least 8 teams!!!  

[PelvisPresley]

1 hour ago, TxFight said:

Look at how the committee views the Big 10; 1 loss Michigan at 4, 1 loss Ohio State is at 10, 3 loss Penn State at 14, 4 loss northwestern at 22.

Meanwhile the SEC has 0 loss bama at 1, 1 loss Georgia at 5, 2 loss LSU at 7, 3 loss Florida at 13, 3 loss Kentucky at 17, 4 loss Mississippi State at 21.

 

What those rankings tell me, is that the committee views the SEC (and wins over them, and opponents wins over them) with higher regard than the big 10. 

Also, Michigan's best win is going to be what? On the road at a top 15-20 Ohio State? Alabama would have a win over borderline top 5 LSU on the road.

 

And for the record, I don't want it to happen this way. But unless Georgia were to just beat the brakes off of Bama, Bama is going to be in the playoff with 1 loss. 

I agree on that about unless Alabama is beaten bad by Georgia they're in (and unless Tua gets injured/lost for the season and they lose)...then you just never know what the committee may do. Jalen has been injured and just not that consistent this year...are they going to think Alabama as dangerous with that Mac dude QB'ing? nope

[TxFight]

1 hour ago, Lobo97 said:

See, I see that and I see it more even. 

 

Bama with 0 losses is obviously going to be ranked higher. 

Michigan with 1 loss is higher than Georgia with 1 loss. 

Ohio Stat is 10 with 1 loss because they lost by 29 to an unranked team. 

Florida and Penn State are back to back. 

Northwestern and Miss State are back to back. 

 

I am also thinking about where teams will be ranked come the end of the season after all the games are played. Assuming Michigan wins, Ohio State will drop to somewhere around 15-20. Northwestern at 8-5 will probably drop out of the top 25. You are then looking at wins over lets say #15ish Ohio State, and #15ish Penn State as Michigan's only top 25 wins (by the CFP committee rankings @ end of the year). Alabama, will have wins over #5-6 LSU, #20ish Mississippi State. And as the Committee has also shown, it's how you win those games that matter as well. Bama has more style points than anyone and it's not even close. 

[Mr. P]

3 hours ago, Lobo97 said:

I don't see Ohio State jumping OU, if they both win out. Just my opinion. 

I agree with this...  if OU wins out, they will have beaten the team that beat the team that beat them (Texas), and likely beaten them twice (reg. season and CCG). 

[Coach Rab]

5 hours ago, Lobo97 said:

So if OU (whose lone loss is to a Top 15 team, by 3) beats WV, then beats WV again in the B12 Championship game, you think Ohio State (who lost to an unranked team, by 29) jumps OU?

I think The B12 is more likely to eliminate itself leaving the OSU/Michigan winner set to take that last spot.  

[Mr. P]

4 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

I think The B12 is more likely to eliminate itself leaving the OSU/Michigan winner set to take that last spot.  

^^^ This is the most likely outcome. I'm expecting some combination of OU/WV/UT losing some game they shouldn't. 

[Coach Rab]

1 minute ago, AKA said:

^^^ This is the most likely outcome. I'm expecting some combination of OU/WV/UT losing some game they shouldn't. 

All it will take is an off game from Kyler and OU could lose big to anyone.  Same with WVU... it’s all about the offense.  If the offense isn’t scoring for those two teams, they aren’t winning 

[Lobo97]

32 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

All it will take is an off game from Kyler and OU could lose big to anyone.  Same with WVU... it’s all about the offense.  If the offense isn’t scoring for those two teams, they aren’t winning 

That's not just true for those two teams either. LSU's offense didn't score against Alabama. They didn't come close to winning. 

[Coach Rab]

50 minutes ago, Lobo97 said:

That's not just true for those two teams either. LSU's offense didn't score against Alabama. They didn't come close to winning. 

You know what I meant from the last time you used this joke  

[Lobo97]

17 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

You know what I meant from the last time you used this joke  

I couldn't resist. Lol

[Mr. P]

1 hour ago, MavGrad99 said:

All it will take is an off game from Kyler and OU could lose big to anyone.  Same with WVU... it’s all about the offense.  If the offense isn’t scoring for those two teams, they aren’t winning 

WV is gonna score 50+ I don't care if Grier breaks his finger on the first play of the game. He could throw left-handed for four quarters and still torch our secondary. 

But even if OU manages to outscore Holgorsen's hooligans in the regular season finale, I just don't see them being able to do it back-to-back.

I say WV beats OU next week and plays UT in the CCG.

Then, just to further illustrate what a joke conference the Big XII is, 3-loss Texas wins. This ensures no Big XII team can sniff the Playoffs. 

Alabama crushes some overrated Big 10 t u r d in the first round, then pounds the everloving #### out of Clemson for yet another title. After the game, Saban signs a 20-year eleventy-billion dollar contract extension, and then snorts a line of cocaine off a cheerleader's cleavage on national television. Urban Meyer resigns in disgrace when ESPN releases a blockbuster story showing that he murdered Jews in the Holocaust. Ohio State hires Tom Herman. Texas hires Scott Surratt. Carthage hires John King. These three events cause the servers of Smoaky.com to overheat and burn down the storage shed behind Doomer's mobile home where they're located. As a result of the blaze, his illegal moonshine operation is discovered. Trueblue82 and Stoney are arrested in connection on racketeering charges, thanks to Hardin copping a plea deal. AKA changes his name back to Matthias and is appointed Admin-for-Life of Smoaky.com. He immediately bans everyone from the forums and reveals himself to have been JRowe all along.

[trueblue82]

5 hours ago, AKA said:

WV is gonna score 50+ I don't care if Grier breaks his finger on the first play of the game. He could throw left-handed for four quarters and still torch our secondary. 

But even if OU manages to outscore Holgorsen's hooligans in the regular season finale, I just don't see them being able to do it back-to-back.

I say WV beats OU next week and plays UT in the CCG.

Then, just to further illustrate what a joke conference the Big XII is, 3-loss Texas wins. This ensures no Big XII team can sniff the Playoffs. 

Alabama crushes some overrated Big 10 t u r d in the first round, then pounds the everloving #### out of Clemson for yet another title. After the game, Saban signs a 20-year eleventy-billion dollar contract extension, and then snorts a line of cocaine off a cheerleader's cleavage on national television. Urban Meyer resigns in disgrace when ESPN releases a blockbuster story showing that he murdered Jews in the Holocaust. Ohio State hires Tom Herman. Texas hires Scott Surratt. Carthage hires John King. These three events cause the servers of Smoaky.com to overheat and burn down the storage shed behind Doomer's mobile home where they're located. As a result of the blaze, his illegal moonshine operation is discovered. Trueblue82 and Stoney are arrested in connection on racketeering charges, thanks to Hardin copping a plea deal. AKA changes his name back to Matthias and is appointed Admin-for-Life of Smoaky.com. He immediately bans everyone from the forums and reveals himself to have been JRowe all along.

I’m not gonna be stuck with Stoney for a cellmate am I? 

[Mr. P]

8 hours ago, trueblue82 said:

I’m not gonna be stuck with Stoney for a cellmate am I? 

Nah, you've got the 8th Amendment to thank for that. 

[PelvisPresley]

14 hours ago, AKA said:

WV is gonna score 50+ I don't care if Grier breaks his finger on the first play of the game. He could throw left-handed for four quarters and still torch our secondary. 

But even if OU manages to outscore Holgorsen's hooligans in the regular season finale, I just don't see them being able to do it back-to-back.

I say WV beats OU next week and plays UT in the CCG.

Then, just to further illustrate what a joke conference the Big XII is, 3-loss Texas wins. This ensures no Big XII team can sniff the Playoffs. 

Alabama crushes some overrated Big 10 t u r d in the first round, then pounds the everloving #### out of Clemson for yet another title. After the game, Saban signs a 20-year eleventy-billion dollar contract extension, and then snorts a line of cocaine off a cheerleader's cleavage on national television. Urban Meyer resigns in disgrace when ESPN releases a blockbuster story showing that he murdered Jews in the Holocaust. Ohio State hires Tom Herman. Texas hires Scott Surratt. Carthage hires John King. These three events cause the servers of Smoaky.com to overheat and burn down the storage shed behind Doomer's mobile home where they're located. As a result of the blaze, his illegal moonshine operation is discovered. Trueblue82 and Stoney are arrested in connection on racketeering charges, thanks to Hardin copping a plea deal. AKA changes his name back to Matthias and is appointed Admin-for-Life of Smoaky.com. He immediately bans everyone from the forums and reveals himself to have been JRowe all along.

the crazy thing is...when all that happens, Texas will probably be ranked #5 in playoff poll somehow with chaos, with those three losses. ha, I'd be sick as a Longhorn fan...I know it won't happen, but just as I've spoken it into existence...

hopefully none of the NCAA violations will come in on those illegal "Pony Shoe" kickbacks...and the "Chuck Taylor Whisky"...new high quality southern brew flavored with old dirty high tops.

[Coach Rab]

The Citadel upsets Alabama, UMASS runs through Georgia.  Michigan gets pummeled by Ohio St who gets crushed by Northwestern in the CCG.  Notre Dame, does an Irish jig into the #1 playoff Spot.  After Bama loses again to Georgia in the SEC CCG, neither makes the playoffs. Clemson loses to Syracuse.  Oklahoma, Texas, and WVU do a Texas 2 step with one another and all drop a game.  leaving the door open for LSU to take that #2 spot.  WIth all of the chaos, Mark Emmeritt (NCAA president) resigns in protest, and the NCAA in absolute chaos abruptly assigns Paul Finebaum and Stephen A. Smith co-presidents of the NCAA.  In swift action, they disband the NCAA playoff committee.  Their final nominees for the playoffs contradict one another that leads to more NCAA turmoil:

Stephen A.                                     Finebaum

1. Syracuse                                    1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame                               2. LSU
3. Michigan                                    3. Auburn
4. Boston College                          4. Georgia

So in a debate, they settle it on an ESPN special.  After the debate the final 4 was decided...

1. New York Knicks
2. Alabama
3. New England Patriots
4. Odell Beckham Jr.  <<clearly an SEC/NYC compromise>>

James Dolan, excited to finally make the playoffs starts immediate transition of his basketball players to football players.  He makes a bold move and hires longtime great, Tony Romo as his Head Coach.  Odell Beckham Jr, confident in his skills, enters several Punt, Pass, and Catch competitions to prepare himself for the big 1v4 matchup.

All of the hype was on the other game though.  The 2 greatest teams to ever walk this earth...  Tom vs Tua....  EPIC!  Billicheat vs Satan!  EPIC!  

When the dust settles, I expect the winners to be OBJ vs Bama.  I get all of my news from The Birmingham News, so who knows the actual outcome of the game...  

When the dust settles, Saban wins another National Championship being the 1st 2 loss playoff team in the playoff Era.

[Coach Rab]

Group of 5 playoff:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/group-of-five-playoff-ranking-the-top-four-and-opening-the-field-for-more-college-football-teams/?ftag=SPM-16-10abi8e

I love these little teams, but that SOS on all of them....

[Sportsfanatic1]

SDC opinions........Is Alabama's dominance hurting college football?

I've heard this debated quite a bit. Wondering what y'all thought about it?

[Mr. P]

16 hours ago, DTrump said:

SDC opinions........Is Alabama's dominance hurting college football?

Meh...  it's not hurting the game any more than Nebraska in the late '90s, Miami in the '80s, or USC in the '70s. College football is cyclical. Dynasties rise and fall, and out of nowhere upstarts become powerhouses. 

However, I do think it might be hurting the SEC. (Not the brand of course. The conference brass does an excellent job of protecting the brand, especially during Bowl season) By virtue of the fact that SEC coaches are held to the near-impossible standard of being competitive with Nick Saban. 

[Sportsfanatic1]

2 minutes ago, AKA said:

Meh...  it's not hurting the game any more than Nebraska in the late '90s, Miami in the '80s, or USC in the '70s. College football is cyclical. Dynasties rise and fall, and out of nowhere upstarts become powerhouses. 

However, I do think it might be hurting the SEC. (Not the brand of course. The conference brass does an excellent job of protecting the brand, especially during Bowl season) By virtue of the fact that SEC coaches are held to the near-impossible standard of being competitive with Nick Saban. 

Excellent post as usual. I seen Finebaum saying "Alabama is sucking the air out of college football".

[Mr. P]

21 minutes ago, DTrump said:

Excellent post as usual. I seen Finebaum saying "Alabama is sucking the air out of college football".

Thanks. 'Bama is awesome, sure, but Clemson is solid as well. As long as both teams continue to dominate their conferences and succeed in the playoffs, there's no reason why they shouldn't keep meeting for the title. The system is supposed to find the two best teams. Far as I'm concerned, the system is working fine...  though I would prefer an 8-team playoff. 

But I feel like college football is in great shape right now. You've got bluebloods like Notre Dame and Michigan in the top 5, traditional powers like Georgia, LSU, and OU continuing to perform at a high level, plus upstarts like Washington State, West Virginia, and even UCF making some noise. There's also pretty good parity across the country, based on the number of "upsets" that seem to occur every week. 

[Sportsfanatic1]

6 minutes ago, AKA said:

But I feel like college football is in great shape right now. You've got bluebloods like Notre Dame and Michigan in the top 5, traditional powers like Georgia, LSU, and OU continuing to perform at a high level, plus upstarts like Washington State, West Virginia, and even UCF making some noise. There's also pretty good parity across the country, based on the number of "upsets" that seem to occur every week. 

I would agree. IMO best sport there is!

[Coach Rab]

after today, I may have to rule out Ohio St...

[JohnnyFootball]

30 minutes ago, MavGrad99 said:

after today, I may have to rule out Ohio St...

You will after Michigan regardless, I bet. Although they're struggling with Indiana.