KirtFalcon Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, KirtFalcon said: I hope he's right.....that drops West Hardin to D2 and sets up this: Colmesneil West Hardin Deweyville Sabine Pass Evadale Hull-Daisetta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTFAN99 Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 7 hours ago, hoopscoach17 said: The only way that LHS stays 5A is that if a large number of metropolitan schools have jumped ahead of them, which is a big possibility. Schools in the Frisco ISD have to be getting close. The Houston area ISD's are still exploding. Several new high schools have opened since the last realignment. Can't say if any of the Austin metro schools will jump up. The most likely are 2 of the high schools in the Leander ISD which right now are 5A. That school district is growing like crazy so there is a chance they could move up. Also, word is that both Prosper ISD schools are close to moving up. I'm certain there are several others that I haven't heard about. It will definitely be close but there is a chance Longview stays 5A. Frisco isd has pretty much said they will not allow their schools to go 6a. This is why they keep building new high schools every few yrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fidelia11 Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 (edited) I've been logging everything reported on DCTF. Really good data dump tonight, but there are SO many 6a and 5a still unreported. I did just note that Tolar, who DCTF is projecting in the 2A-I title game against Timpson, turned in 282, so I'm quite certain they will move up no matter what. I'd guess they'd go to District 2 with Wall. Tolar beat the snot out of potential future district foe Early in non-district and beat up on Comanche, too. So, Canadian and Wall will definitely have some competition in Region 1 next year. Edited November 1, 2023 by Fidelia11 left out word 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrenchWarrior09 Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 14 hours ago, PantherNation2015 said: They didn’t take enough from SH to allow us to drop to 3A D1. Longview failed. They did their part…Gilmer must’ve just forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CreateMyAccount Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 15 hours ago, PantherNation2015 said: They didn’t take enough from SH to allow us to drop to 3A D1. Longview failed. Any word on SH's numbers yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. P Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 17 hours ago, PantherNation2015 said: They didn’t take enough from SH to allow us to drop to 3A D1. Longview failed. C'mon man, we did our part! Y'all gotta help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. P Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 17 hours ago, Grainraiser said: Unless they add a new district to Dallas the Mesquite schools should remain in 10-6A. They could move them but they would only be moving them from one 9 team district to another. I don't expect alot of movement because there not that many schools moving up. Longview, Forney and Lancaster are the only schools moving up in the eastern section of DFW. Surprisingly they are all from the same district. We'll have one more realignment (2025) where we'll be on the 6A/5A bubble, but after that Longview should remain 5A until they add 7A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slickarick Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 My predictions ( last realignment was an outlier in the data when numbers jumped so much) This is what I am thinking 2A-DII-105-174 2A-DI-175-254 3A-DII-255-364 3A-DI-365-552 4A-DII-553-899 4A-D1-900-1344 5A-DII-1345-1964 5A-D1-1965-2254 6A-2255+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slickarick Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 If those hold true the differences from the 2022-2024 and the 2024-2026 would be as follows: Realignment 2022-2024 2024-2026 Scale factor 1.562 1.657 high/low--> 1.509 1.451 1.436 1.427 1.511 1.512 1.613 1.626 1.476 1.493 1.48 1.46 1.155 1.147 Avg 1.46775 1.471625 Variance 0.0189416428 0.024030839 Std. Deviation 0.1376286411 0.1550188353 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hwy35tigers Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 Would love to see the top number for 3A-DII be 362. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slickarick Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, hwy35tigers said: Would love to see the top number for 3A-DII be 362. yea no clue and it could very well be. Padilla has it at 379. I think that is way too high. I just based it on past realignments and ran some simulations. If I had all numbers I could more adjust to where it could be at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slickarick Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 (edited) 42 minutes ago, hwy35tigers said: Would love to see the top number for 3A-DII be 362. Lowest I got was 364 so I don't think it will be any lower than that sadly. ranged from 364-374. Edited November 1, 2023 by Slickarick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slickarick Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 More realistic approach would be this one its the average of the simulations ran. 2A-DII-105-179 2A-DI-180-259 3A-DII-260-371 3A-DI-372-563 4A-DII-564-904 4A-D1-905-1354 5A-DII-1355-1974 5A-D1-1975-2269 6A-2270+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grainraiser Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 9 hours ago, Mr. P said: We'll have one more realignment (2025) where we'll be on the 6A/5A bubble, but after that Longview should remain 5A until they add 7A. Half the teams in 7-5A are moving up. Longview, Forney, Lancaster and McKinney North should all be 6A this go around. I am waiting to see if Bryan Adams going 6A but seems like DISD has not released their numbers yet. They will get paired with Skyline which will change things in the DFW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nationalpastime Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 It's going to be interesting to say the least. I wonder if the metropolitan schools that are opting to stay with their actual numbers instead of going up will have an impact. In any event, when does the UIL typically send out the cutoff numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboys1970 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Those numbers are generally released from those at the UIL in early December. At this moment I'm seeing at least 8 to 9 teams right above/below 100 kids opting up to play 2A. Also saw a school with an enrollment of 65 (Rocksprings) I believe opting up to play 2A ball. I can't see the UIL raising the upper end to 180. That's 15 kids, but then again you never know what the UIL will do! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slickarick Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 18 minutes ago, Cowboys1970 said: Those numbers are generally released from those at the UIL in early December. At this moment I'm seeing at least 8 to 9 teams right above/below 100 kids opting up to play 2A. Also saw a school with an enrollment of 65 (Rocksprings) I believe opting up to play 2A ball. I can't see the UIL raising the upper end to 180. That's 15 kids, but then again you never know what the UIL will do! yea that average and Padilla numbers both landed at 179. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermaroon Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 On 10/30/2023 at 9:27 PM, MattStepp said: The biggest reason is I was at work lol it's updated now I will forgive you this time BAHAHAHA. How close is it to be 100% in? I love trying to predict cutoff numbers and districts gets lonely out here in the oil fields haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattStepp Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 19 hours ago, supermaroon said: I will forgive you this time BAHAHAHA. How close is it to be 100% in? I love trying to predict cutoff numbers and districts gets lonely out here in the oil fields haha. About 90% but I'm not messing w/realignment until after Thanksgiving.....I'm on vacation the next few days and then the playoffs start 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboys1970 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 I was reading on Twitter that Mr. Padilla supposedly sent out his 2024 2A Division re-alignment last week to his subscribers. Does anyone have and able to share with us? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETIREDFAN1 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cowboys1970 said: I was reading on Twitter that Mr. Padilla supposedly sent out his 2024 2A Division re-alignment last week to his subscribers. Does anyone have and able to share with us? Thanks! Do NOT violate his copyright....... translated: do NOT post copyrighted material ....... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackets02 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 On 10/29/2023 at 1:09 PM, KildogDad said: A friend of mine in Denison said he wouldn't be surprised if the Jackets dropped to 4A-D1. What do you think? They very well could but more than likely it will be short lived. Immense growth in both Sherman and Denison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slickarick Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 I printed off ( from Dave Campbells) and counted schools from top to 226 and that landed on 2121ish for number( I included the opting up numbers listed on that list too) . I know its not 100% done but that's 100 lower kids than last time at 249 schools. so they would have to add a lot more schools to the 2250+ to push that number higher. IF you go to 250 then it gets into the 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fidelia11 Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 Almost 100 6A schools have not given DCTF their number—most of which were well above the cut last go round. I hope Matt (or whoever) has a big update tomorrow once he returns. 3 or 4 are reported 2x with different #s. Using the 2021 enrollment for those missing, 249 schools is exactly 2270. Also wish they would highlight the ones they add with each update. I’ve gone through that list about 20 times. Also missing a lot of 5A and a fair # of 4A. 3A and 2A are almost complete. 1A is maybe 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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